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GF Strategy Dai Kang: Capital Market Revaluation Drives Residents and Long-Term Funds into the Market

March 15, 2019 08:03
Author:Dai Kang
source: GF strategy research

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  ● “goldThe supply side slow cattle "what is the expected difference? Entity to finance: first break the back, the same line

Like the "small supply side slow cattle", the "financial supply side slow cattle" has three significant expectations: the emphasis on fundamental changes and the neglect of the discount rate drive is stronger, considered to be "big buffalo" and ignore the impact of risk preferences. In large, the strategic positioning and sustained understanding of the reform of the financial supply side is insufficient.

“Entity supply side reform” “first break” through “entity + finance” “de-leverage” to adjust the total supply and demand of credit in traditional cycle industries such as infrastructure and real estate, and “post-stand” achieves a major turning point – from “de-leverage” "Stable leverage" has changed from "different credit differentiation, private enterprise financing" to "private enterprise bail-out" and "financial supply-side reform", aiming at building a "broad credit" supply and demand mechanism for high-quality new economy.

  Entity supply side slow cattle 1.0: profitable cattle, cycle consumption led by dragon

The path of the three factors of A-share DDM in 16-17 years is divided into two stages. The first stage is the gradual recognition and acceptance of the 16Q1-Q3 market, and the short-term risk appetite brought about by the expected warming of the reform. The second phase is more durable, and the 16Q4-17Q4 drive comes from the profit improvement brought by the increase in capacity utilization efficiency of the cyclical industry, that is, “profit bullying”. “De-capacity” benefits cyclical stocks, “de-stocking” benefits consumer stocks, and industry concentration and financial deleveraging are more friendly to leading companies, and A-share style is significantly dominated by the broader market.

  Financial supply side slow cattle 2.0: denominator drive, technology cattle, small plate wins

In 19 years, the A-share “financial supply side slow cow” has also been opened, and the core driving force comes from the denominator end of the DDM model – effectively expanding the new economy and private enterprise financing will enable financing.interest rateStructural decline; sound institutional reform and revision of resource mismatches will increase the positioning of the capital market and will raise the risk appetite of the stock market.

The beneficiary industry of “financial supply side slow cattle” will be carried out along the supply and demand sides of the new economic credit expansion: from the demand side, the profit cycle of technology growth stocks in the past 15 years,MergerThe cycle and the science and technology cycle are the first to usher in a rare "three-cycle resonance", which will become the leading force; from the supply side,BrokerAs an important participant in the capital market,PerformanceNegative suppression with valuation and gradual improvement in strategic position.

Optimistic about the small-cap style. First of all, resource optimization support is more inclined for small-cap stocks (civil enterprises); secondly, the market characteristics are observed. In the short-term, the bullish-bearing conversion period tends to win small-cap stocks. In the long run, each round of bull market style has more than the previous round. There is a “reversal”. In 16-17, the bull market is a large-cap stock style. This round will be reversed to small-cap stocks. In addition, the warming of the regulatory cycle will positively drive small-cap stocks.

  2.0 VS 1.0: Faster, faster, and stronger

Faster – valuation is a fast variable and profit is a slow variable. This round of the parent-driven market will be “faster” than the previous round of molecular-side driving fluctuations; higher – “Davis double-click” led by technology growth stocks Compared with the previous round of cycle and consumption-led “performance repair”, the upside is higher; stronger – bid farewell to “quantity contraction”, “financial supply side slow cattle” comprehensively enters “quality optimization”, and the science and technology cycle is improved Reform and transformation expectations, capital market revaluation drives residents and long-term funds into the market, and the market is “stronger”.

  ● Core hypothetical risks:Q2 performance and low economic expectations, overseas contraction and so on.

(Article source: GF Strategy Research)

                (Editor: DF078)

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