According to the macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 14, 2019: above the scale of January to February 2019Industrial added valueYear-on-year growth of 5.3%,The total retail sales of social consumer goodsA nominal year-on-year increase of 8.2%, nationwideFixed asset investment(excluding farmers) a nominal increase of 6.2% year-on-year.
Judging from the economic data released today, China’s economic development started to be stable in 2019, and investment demand continued to rise. The Spring Festival factor led to supply contraction and improved supply and demand in the real economy, laying the foundation for future expansion of production and price recovery. among them,real estateInvestment growth once again exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% in the first two months. The growth rate was 2.1 percentage points higher than last year, which is the highest level since 2015. However, the leading indicators of real estate investment in this period have weakened. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, and fell to negative growth after 36 months. The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 34.1% year-on-year. The annual growth of housing in 2018 was 14.2%, and the newly started housing area increased by 6.8%. In 2018, the growth rate slowed by 11.2 percentage points. There are two questions to answer here: first, why real estate investment is surpassing expectations again. Second, leading indicators have weakened overall. Will real estate investment surpass expectations in the first two months be a short-lived one?
For the first question, the data analysis on the official website of the Bureau of Statistics has given the answer. The expectation of real estate investment in the first two months was “pushed by the accelerated construction progress of the project and the rapid growth of land acquisition fees”. The accelerated construction progress of the project reflected that the growth rate of the construction area of the house in the first two months rose to 6.8%, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous year and 5.3 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. The accelerated construction of housing construction means that the growth rate of Jian'an investment is picking up, while Jian'an project accounts for more than 60% of real estate investment. The date of land acquisition fee is relatively lagging, and it is still unclear how the land acquisition fee has increased in the previous two months.
However, the market generally expects that the purchase of land by 2019 will significantly reduce the impact of real estate investment, because the growth rate of land transaction price in 2018 is 31.4 percentage points slower than that in 2017. It is difficult to support the growth rate of land acquisition fees and continue to grow rapidly in 2019. . So, can real estate investment exceed expectations in the first two months in the future?
We think this is possible. The data of this round of real estate cycle presents a new feature, that is, the lag of conduction, the conduction lag of sales to investment, and the transmission of new construction to construction is also lagging behind. In 2016, the newly started housing area rebounded significantly due to the sales situation. The highest growth rate reached 21.4%, but the construction area of the housing continued to pick up during the same period. Last year, the growth rate of new construction area rebounded again, and the growth rate of housing construction area began to rebound slightly. The reason for this may be related to the real estate business's initiative to slow down the progress of the project, and the real estate regulation is becoming more stringent and new.House priceFactors such as grid restrictions have reduced the willingness of real estate developers to push new discs, and the area of completed buildings has experienced 16 consecutive negative growth. However, as the prices of first-tier cities have stabilized, real estate developers are expected to change, and the possibility of continued overweight in the real estate regulation and control under the pressure of steady growth has dropped significantly. The new construction in the early stage may accelerate the conversion to construction this year. Thereby providing conditions for the stability of real estate investment. Retreat 10,000 steps, even if the growth rate of real estate investment fell within the expected range of the market during the year, its impact on the economy is different from last year's real estate investment. Because the real estate investment last year was the land acquisition fee, not included.GDPThis year, Jian'an Engineering will play the leading role, which will produce real GDP.
(Article source: Xuan Yan Global Macro)