Huang Yanming, director of the Guotai Junan Institute, said that this time should be on the train, and now it is just a break, the market is not over. This round of market is a policy brought by the market, the current situation of the A-share market is based, and has a firm confidence in the market outlook.
[The total number of monarchs] "Huang Yanming dialogue king of the total number of four chiefs - get on the train or get off?" Conference call minutes
Time: March 14th (Thursday)
Li Shaojun, head of the national team, chief of global strategy
Director Huang Yanming: Getting on the bus or getting off?
Strategy Li Shaojun / Chen Xianshun: Where will the marginal funds flow?
Macro Flower Changchun: After the two sessions, the policy continues or adjusts?
Solid income Han Han: How long is the debt cow?
Metalworking Chen Olin: What are the characteristics of the bull market?
Minutes of the meeting
Hello everyone online, welcome investors to participate in the total night of Guotai Junan. Today's total night talks have two different places. One is the "night talk" held in the afternoon, and more importantly, it is a great honor to invite the director of the Guotai Junan Institute, and Mr. Huang Yanming to participate.
Today I will discuss five core issues with Teacher Huang:
Question 1: Now that everyone is concerned about the market direction, is it to get on or off?
Recently, the market has to adjust for a period of time in this position, but it is the best time to get on the bus, not the time to get off. Let's analyze it:
the first,The two-day market has adjusted, why is it adjusted?There is a great relationship with the end of the two sessions. You can see that there are many rumors before the two sessions, and there are also many hot money gathering funds to enter the stock market. Now that the two sessions are over, the topic has landed, and some of the hot money has withdrawn during this time. There is no particularly big negative, and there are no special factors to interfere with the market. Therefore, market adjustment is a normal phenomenon in the short term.
Second,The market is now in the process of accumulating strength.On February 27th, I said that the market index is a key resistance position between 2900 and 3200. It takes some time and certain strength to form an effective breakthrough. 2900 to 3200 is an intensive trading area when the market has fallen from 5000 points. A large number of stocks are piled up here, so it is now necessary to repeatedly trade in the position of 2900 to 3200 in the market, so that the chips are fully cleaned. The market can gain momentum.
Third, the market index needs to be a force if it is going up.This power comes from the stimulation of some new factors, especially some of the larger cyclical stocks, which can make the market stand at 3,200 points. If the market stands at 3,200 points, there is still a relatively large space. At present, A-shares are only in a period of retreat, waiting for new opportunities to emerge, not to say that the market is over.
So if you ask me if I am getting on or off at this time, I know a lot.fundManagers and investors are very concerned about this issue. For some investors who bought stocks and made money, they were excited at the 3000-point position and worried that the market would fall back and wanted to get off. However, some fund managers did not make any money in the previous market, and they were not reconciled. They wanted to get on the bus at this position and did not dare to go. So everyone is now in a state of confusion and anxiety. This state will be maintained for a while, but we believe thatAfter the market continues to rest in this position, after the chips are cleaned, there will be a process of continuing to rise in the market, so we are still optimistic about the market outlook!
Teacher Huang clearly gave the answer: get on the bus! It’s just a break, and the market is not over.
Question 2: The impact of regulatory policies on the market.
Teacher Huang, we are concerned that the regulatory authorities have introduced some regulatory policies in the near future, mainly for the allocation of funds. The policy on funds is always a knot for everyone. After 15 years, we will never forget, then how do you see this policy on the market? influences?
I want to talk about a few links:
This time, the regulatory authorities have checked the allocation of funds. I think this time is very suitable.Doing this at this point in time is also very beneficial to the development of the entire market, and will also help the healthy development of our future market. Therefore, at this time, it is necessary for the regulatory authorities to issue the issue of matching funds. It’s too late to wait until the market has produced a huge bubble.
Looking back at the situation in 2015, we saw that the regulatory authorities checked the off-exchange funds, causing the market to plummet, but there is a keyword called “cause”, which is actually inappropriate. The reason for the plunge in the broader market in 2015 was not because the regulators checked the off-exchange funds, but the deterioration of the capital market microstructure. It is not the reason to check the allocation of funds outside the market. The reason is that the leverage before the entire market is too fierce. It’s like you go to the store to buy a balloon, the boss rushes the balloon very much, and when you touch it, the balloon bursts. So, is it because the boss has beaten the balloon too much, or did you touch the balloon that caused it to explode? Obviously the former is the main cause, and touching is just a catalyst.
Now we see that the market is up. In the process of healthy development, the gas has not been beaten very much, and it has not reached the state of being exploded. If you do not check the off-exchange funds now, it will be too late to wait until the bubble is serious. Therefore, I believe that learning the lessons of the 2015 stock market disaster and controlling the risk factors in advance will be very beneficial to the development of the follow-up market.
Good teacher Huang, in fact, you answered a question that everyone is very concerned about, that is, the influx of funds is too fast and the balloon is too full. The next question is coming. If the fund-raising has been completed and the balloon is not too big, then the funds will still determine the style. We see different market styles in January, February and March.
Question 3: How do you see the style and structure of the next stage market?
The general trend of the entire A-shares can be said to have gone through two stages since the beginning of the year, and the third stage is opened next.
The first stage: In January, a large amount of foreign capital flooded into the Chinese market.Foreign capital entering the Chinese market will first be standardized according to the corresponding index they track, but at the same time as the standard, the over-matching of some strong industries, mainly in the consumer goods industry, the most typical is food and beverage, liquor and home appliances, from statistics It can be seen on the data. However, the market for foreign investment has basically come to an end by the end of January, so the market for consumer stocks has basically ended.
The second stage: A-share regulatory policy has undergone great changes.In summary, the regulation of transactions has been relaxed, and a large amount of social funds have flooded into the stock market. The most typical is the hot money, the entry of hot money determines the market style at that time.
A problem often discussed inside the Guotai Junan Institute is that the investment style of incremental funds determines the investment style of the market. Recall that at the end of 2014, a large number of real estate developers put their money into the stock market. The investment style of these people formed a wave of banking stocks at that time, because these real estate developers like to buy banking stocks. What we are seeing now is that a large amount of hot money has entered the stock market, and the hot money stocks have his characteristics. They prefer stocks with high risk characteristics, so in February we saw stocks with high-risk stocks. The so-called high-risk stocks are theirsPerformanceThere is a strong uncertainty, the company is in the process of rapid change, the most typical is the technology stocks, in addition, there are some stocks that are known as junk stocks, which have produced a sharp rise in the market, which is very similar to the style of hot money. Big relationship. Next,We believe that the investment style dominated by hot money will continue for a while, but not too long.
In the third stage, public offerings regained pricing power.Next, we will see a change in market style, mainly due to changes in the funding side, and the funds are transformed from social hot money to main funds. At this stage, public fund managers can only see the hot money style of hot money, and they are overwhelmed, but in the next stage, the investment style will no longer be dominated by hot money, but will be dominated by public funds and return to a regular investment. Style goes up.
Different stylesCash flowInto the different styles of different stages. The first stage is the inflow of foreign capital, mainly for consumer stocks, and the second stage is the inflow of hot money, mainly for stocks with high risk characteristics. The third stage is formal capital inflows.At this time, the main performance is the stock of the value class. Where are the stock opportunities of value class mainly manifested? We believe that it is mainly cyclical stocks. For Guotai Junan Research Institute to start cyclical stocks from February 27th, some people in the market agree that some cyclical stocks have a good market, but many people still can't understand. Their doubts are that the macroeconomic situation is not so good, and the performance of listed companies has not come out. Why do you push cyclical stocks at this time? It seems that all the fundamental conditions are not established. What I want to say is that when you see that all the fundamental conditions have been established, the market for cyclical stocks has already risen, and it is late.
So at this time, you have to get on the bus. The key ones should be stocks of technology and stocks.
Ok, this time I have to get on the bus, cycle and technology, because the capital structure determines the market style. In fact, at this time, many publicly-funded customers, regardless of the position or position, are very entangled. Teacher Huang made it clear that he had to get on the bus at this time, as well as the structure of the boarding.
Question 4: Can you have a brief outlook on the rhythm and possible risks?
The biggest risk point is the uncertainty of policy., still the focus we need to pay attention to. Before we all said that our round of market is a bull market caused by policy. Of course, the bull market brought by the policy requires us to observe, and it has certain uncertainty.
The second is how the hot money we just talked about changes.It also has a lot to do with regulatory policies. At present, the pace of hot money entering the market, including the A-share market situation, is still relatively healthy, but it does not rule out excessive speculation for individual stocks.
The third is the issue of leverage in this process.At present, the leverage of the entire market is still relatively healthy. However, for some stocks, it is not the whole market. It has been maliciously speculated by the dealers, especially by leveraging the stock price. If the stock is received, the consequences are unimaginable. So, we have to circumvent these stocks that are pulling stocks up by leveraging them. These stocks don’t necessarily bring us profits in the future, but they are doing very well. This is a few aspects that we need to pay attention to.
Good teacher Huang, these questions I want to have a clear understanding of investors after the exchange.
As a conclusion, can you tell the investor what you want to say in one sentence?
What I want to tell you most is that this round of market is a policy brought by itself. At present, the status of the A-share market is based and has a firm confidence in the market.Many people told me that this round of market is lack of foundation, because in their minds, the market brought by performance is based, and the market brought by policy is unfounded. What I want to say is that this understanding is wrong. The stock price is based on the human heart. Where can the foundation of the human heart come from? It can be brought about by the increase in the performance of listed companies, or through the adjustment of policies, which can lead to changes in people's minds, and changes in people's minds can be reflected in stock prices. Therefore, it can be said that the rise in performance has brought about a rise in people's hearts and thus the rise in stock prices. The rise in policies can also lead to an increase in people's hearts, which can also bring about an increase in stock prices. The two are originally consistent. Therefore, we can't simply say that the rise in stock prices caused by rising performance is fundamental, and the improvement in the stock price has a lack of foundation. This understanding is not correct. Since the stock market crash in 2015, the awareness of many issues has gradually become consistent. Therefore, we believe that the current situation of the A-share market is based and has a firm confidence in the market outlook.
Ok, thank you, Teacher Huang, thank you for your time. Later, Mr. Huang will have to catch the plane, and the conversation with you will come to an end. Next, I want to ask Mr. Huang's thoughts and logic to ask a few of our chiefs. The first thing to communicate is our macro chief flower, Dr. Changchun. The problem still revolves around the logic that Mr. Huang just said. Maybe the performance will not be seen in the short term, nor is it the reason for this round of rise. The main reason is still in policy. The policy has some thoughts and hesitation before and after the two sessions. What kind of views do you have on the continuation of the policy and the subsequent policy outlook?
For the continuation of the policy we can understand from three perspectives.
First, the main line defined by the Central Economic Work Conference last year cannot be changed in a short period of time.
Second, the economic situation we are currently facing is just out of the data of January and February today. We can analyze this data. If there is any pressure on the economy in the future, there is no need for policy support.
Third, what are the risks of going backwards? Can these risks prevent policy implementation?
I want to answer the questions of Jun from these three perspectives.
At the time of the Central Economic Work Conference, two main lines of work were proposed. One is to revitalize the real economy and the other is to boost confidence in the capital market. Both of these are being honored.Revitalize the real economy, such as fiscal tax cuts,currencyWide in policyCreditA series of policies, such as reducing the financing costs of SMEs, are being implemented. The two policies are also implementing tax reduction related policies. The confidence in boosting the capital market is actually being implemented, including the discussion of financial economic relations, and the stability of financial stability is also a dialectical relationship. So now, the policy can not continue, but also depends on the economic situation. From the data of January and February, we think it is stable, but stability also shows the possibility of weakening.
From the new data, investment is in a small upward direction, consumption and exports are downward, which leads to a significant decline in manufacturing investment. This is the current situation. In other words, the kinetic energy of economic stability still comes from investment, and the growth rate of real estate investment of 11.6% obviously exceeds expectations. However, many of the leading indicators in real estate investment have declined, such as new construction data, land acquisition, and sales. So we thinkThe probability of subsequent real estate investment will slow down and slow down, which requires policy support.
In addition,Exports are also subject to the pressure of a global economic slowdown.More in the January and February export data is the pressure on the export of labor-intensive products due to the overvaluation of the renminbi. In the future, we believe that the value of the renminbi is still stable during the Sino-US negotiations and is not very favorable for exports. So from this perspective, policy support is needed.
We expect the approval of infrastructure projects to accelerate, and the capital requirements for investment in fixed assets projects may also be reduced, and the financial sector will continue to support.
In addition, we expect the central government to replace the debts with more local debts. I estimate that there may be 10-15 trillion replacements in the next 3-5 years to further resolve local debt risks and at the same time ease the credit transmission mechanism.
Therefore, we believe that the economic situation and economic goals determine that the policy will continue.
The last question, what are the risks that make us difficult to sustain. I believe that everyone is more worried about the problem of piglets. The reduction of pork production capacity by pigs does have a certain impact on future inflation. At present, even if the pig price has a 30% growth rate in the second half of the year, inflation may reach 3%, and it may reach 3.5%. The core question is whether the impact of pig prices is a big problem for the central government? In fact, market inflation is difficult to estimate in the future. I believe that it will be clearer in the middle of the year. At that time, the central bank will pay more attention to inflation expectations.
The central government generally assesses the economic situation in April and July each year, thus setting the policy, so I believe that there should be little problem before July.
In fact, I heard that Huabo believes that the policy will go down this tone. The risk lies in the price. The reason for the price change is the pig price. So pay attention to two time points, one is April and the other is July.
Ok, thanks to Huabo. Below is the chief Chen Olin of Metalworking. Olin, from your system monitoring, what is the current stage of the market?
From a quantitative perspective, how should the market go now? I have broken this into four small problems.
Question 1: Is it a bull market now?
We think it is a bull market now, why? In the past, the bull market waited until the market rose to 5000 points. We went back and found that it was a bull market, but I didn't know it at the time. But in our definition, as long as it is a market driven by irrational emotions, it can be defined as a bull market.From a technical perspective, the market trend is extremely strong.The market strength index has reached the top 5% of the history, and the market trend can be said to be very strong. All industries are above the 20-day moving average.Market sentiment also maintained at historical highs:First, the activity of speculative funds is very high; second, the trading activity has rebounded sharply; third, highDividendThe stock's risk premium ratio has already shown a significant downside. So in terms of both technical and emotional aspects, we can define the current bull market.
Question 2: How do the bull market grasp the timing of getting off?
The bull market is easy to say. In fact, we have already experienced two rounds of bull market. When to get off, we need to consider two aspects. The first is the change of microstructure, and the second is the impact of external force.
In the process of rising, the chips are usually concentrated, dispersed, and concentrated. At present, we are in the stage of concentration and decentralization of chips.Main forceThe activity of funds quickly rose to a high level in January, but now it is in the stage of being transferred to the hot money by the main funds, so it often fluctuates.
In addition, we have recently constructed an indicator that describes the true liquidity of the market to monitor whether the micro-transaction structure has deteriorated. At present, both the investor position structure and the micro-transaction liquidity are in a good state, so from the perspective of micro-structure, it is still on the way to the bull market.
Question 3: What is the bull market adjustment feature?
How to go after the follow-up market? We believe that the bull market usually does not fall sharply. The bull market adjustment is more in the form of a sideways shock. Therefore, we expect a 30-minute level adjustment in the next two weeks, but after the adjustment is over, it will usher in the third major wave. In addition, the single-day plunge in the bull market usually has a strong rebound the next day, so the callback will only be a shock down, and will not go down.
Question 4: Subsequent trend structure
From the structural trend point of view, we believe that the position of the rising halfway up the mountain, from the corresponding relationship of the level structure, is in the first paragraph of the 30-minute level. We think that the 3400 problem is not big under normal circumstances. The subsequent 30-minute level adjustment will not be particularly large, and the market outlook is optimistic, and will continue upwards in the next two months.
Ok, then what is the judgment of your objective system from the perspective of the rhythm of the style structure?
From a structural point of view, the main push for the GEMFirst, the hot money favors stocks with such small market capitalization characteristics. Judging from the marginal changes in foreign positions, foreign investors prefer small and medium-sized stocks and growth stocks recently. Therefore, from the perspective of foreign investment preferences, we also believe that opportunities are still in this sector.
The small ticket that participates in the growth style is still based on hot money, and the liquidity may not be too big. What are your suggestions for public offerings and insurance customers?
For public offerings and insurance, especially small stocks are in the ban pool. Although the style we recommend is small and medium-sized, we recommend small and medium-sized stocks with relatively high foreign investment preferences. Foreign trade behaviors will compare liquidity. The big impact, usually the stocks with high foreign preference, generally improved substantially. Therefore, it is a good choice to arrange stocks with higher foreign investment preferences in the growth stocks.
Ok, the next question is coming. From the beginning of the year we discovered the funds of overseasNet inflowHowever, we have recently discovered a net outflow. From this perspective, do we now have the risk of buying these foreign-funded stocks?
About this issue, we alsoResearchAfter some foreign-funded institutions, they are divided into strategic allocation strategies and tactical configuration strategies according to the investment cycle. From a tactical point of view, they are quicker and more flexible. At present, we tend to judge that this foreign investment is a tactical adjustment. At the strategic level, their shareholding in A shares is a big trend. That is to say, although it is withdrawn in the short term, it will continue to flow in the long run. As long as we meet the conditions of low valuation and high profitability, we believe that foreign capital will continue to increase its holdings of such stocks.
Ok, the last question, is it possible to give a combination?
no problem. You can focus on the follow-up combination of our total team. The previously provided portfolio excess returns are very stable and significant, and you can see the total results in the near future.
Thank you, Olin. The income of a bail-out combination given by our total amount three months ago is also very obvious. We will also launch a car combination in the near future. Welcome everyone's attention.
In the equity market, we first talk about this. The following is the consolidation link. Whether it is through the exchange's shackles or the investor's risk appetite, there is a transmission between equity and solid income.
Question 1: What is the trend of the bond market?
In the medium and long term, we still look at the stocks and debts. Even if the stock market is relatively strong, we also hold the view that the stocks are not bearish.
It is difficult to tighten monetary policy.First of all, from the perspective of policy adjustment, there is a lag. Even if the fundamentals are adversely changed, the adjustment of the policy tone will require observation at certain points in time.At present, during the window period of March and April, the security of monetary policy can be guaranteed.
Secondly,We believe that this round of overall policy is bottoming out.,The degree of tightness and softness is relatively moderate. From the perspective of monetary policy and fundamental interaction, there may be no overheating and then tightening.
The third block is that the keynote of monetary policy is that financial stability is stable.Looking back at the market since the beginning of the year, the adjustment at the beginning of the year to last weekinterest rateThe rapid decline can be said to have fundamental changes, but the most sensitive of the bond market is the short-term funding situation. Based on our judgment on monetary policy, it is difficult to say that the bond market will switch between the bulls and bears in the first half of the year.
A large wave of adjustments in yields since the beginning of the year have both expectations of risk appetite and fundamental expectations. We note that the consolidation of investors at the end of last year is clearly more optimistic than equity investors.
Question 2: This wave of yield adjustment reflects more changes in liquidity risk preferences or changes in economic cycle expectations?
To be precise, I think it is a correction to excessive pessimistic expectations.In the fourth quarter of last year, the data was too fast. The various data reflected the monetary policy, the deterioration of the financing situation reflected by the non-standard, and the rapid downward rate of overdraft and pessimistic expectations. The data at the beginning of this year, including high-frequency data, was released. We believe that the over-pessimistic expectations of last year did not exist, but it is equivalent to the high data of January, and the economic fundamentals have not performed as well. Overall I think more is the repair of pessimistic expectations.
The reason I asked this question is that the expectation of the bond market last year was ahead of the stock market. If the bond market is revised in advance, it also has a certain meaning that everyone's fears may be released in advance.
Why do we recommend the time window for March and April?Mainly based on the following reasons:
1. From a policy perspective, monetary policy is temporarily safe.
2. Based on the perspective of debt-seeking stocks, the strong stock index at the beginning of the year may follow the consolidation stage, thus giving the bond market window.
3. The tone of this year's macro policy has not changed, and the easing policy has hedged the downward pressure on the economy. From macrointerest rateFrom the point of view, long-term interest rates, a wave of market conditions may be a more appropriate time in March and April.
In general, we believe that monetary policy is loose and secure. In the case that the bond market bull market is hard to end, according to the asset law, the long-term interest rate may still break through before the low, and March and April are a good window. It is believed that the 10-year government bond may fall below 3.0 to 2.8-2.9, and the 10-year national debt market may start at around 40pb. Thank you, Jun!
During the quarter, everyone’s views on stocks and debts have undergone major changes. I will make a brief summary:
This is a chance to get on the bus. There is space for participation above 3200. This is why we have to get on the bus.
In terms of configuration structure, the hot money style will continue for a while, so the opportunities for the GEM and technology stocks are clearer..For public fundraising organizations, too small targets will not participate, we will also prepare a stock portfolio, called the car combination, released in the near future.
From the perspective of capital flow, the outflow of trading funds does not affect the strategic capital inflow, so it does not mean the end of the trend.
In March and April, the equity market adjustment process can focus on the opportunities for fixed-income products.From the perspective of long-term debt rotation, the fixed income does not necessarily have a good run, but the tone of the recent policy will not change, and the opportunity for the 10-year national debt to break before the low is not ruled out.
All in all, the year is in spring. This round of market may be uncomfortable for everyone, no matter how long or short. Finally, we ended today’s total dialogue with Mr. Huang’s words.
This is an opportunity to get on the bus, mainly in the technology version and the GEM. In the short-term adjustment, you can find some opportunities for consolidation. Our train combination will also be issued soon.
Thank you for participating!
Summary of other opinions>>>
(Article source: Guotai Junan)