In April last year, the new regulations for asset management were introduced, clearly requiring the trust business to return to the source, to go to the channel, to de-leverage, and to prohibit the redemption, nesting, and restriction.Cash flowStrict regulations have been made to the other aspects, channel business has been greatly compressed, and the trust industry has begun to “squeeze water”.
A few days ago, the data of China Trust Registration Co., Ltd. showed that as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the scale of entrusted assets of the whole industry was 22.57 trillion yuan, which was down compared with the scale of assets entrusted by 68 trust companies nationwide at 25.61 trillion yuan at the end of the first quarter of 2018. 12%. However, the decline in the size of the trust industry's assets mainly occurred in 2018, and the first quarter of this year only slightly decreased by 0.96% from the end of last year.
Since 2019, under a relatively abundant liquidity, the market financing environment has improved and the scale of trust loans has rebounded. April 12, Chinese peoplebankThe report on the “Incremental Statistics of Social Financing Scales in the First Quarter of 2019” shows that the increase in social financing scale in the first quarter of 2019 was 8.18 trillion yuan, 2.34 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year, of which trust loans increased by 83.6 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase was 10.9 billion yuan.
Another third-party data shows that the first quarter of this yearreal estateCollective trust products in the field and basic industries rose sharply, up 25.71% and 161.27% respectively.
“Real estate trust is one of the most important businesses of the trust company. This year, the environment is better, and the scale of trust financing for housing enterprises will be further expanded. Since the second half of 2018, the NDRC and other departments have issued several articles to promote infrastructure investment to complement the short-board project. It is expected that this year's infrastructure trust will usher in great development," said one market source.
Squeeze 3 trillion
Since the second half of 2018, financial de-leverage has slowed down and the trust industry has ushered in regulatory marginal easing under the condition that the new rules of capital management require the same principle. This phenomenon is reflected in the data of the first quarter of 2019.
According to data from the China Trust Registration System, in the first quarter of this year, the size of the entrusted assets of the whole industry was 22.57 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.96% from the 22.79 trillion yuan at the end of December 2018. Further, at the end of January, the trust assets of the trust industry amounted to 22.96 trillion yuan; at the end of February, the trust companies held a stock trust benefit of 22.58 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.65% compared with 22.96 trillion yuan at the end of January; It is 22.57 trillion yuan. Overall, the size of the industry's assets has generally shown a stable trend.
As early as November 2017, the new regulations for the issuance of new regulations, the request for the channel, and the prevention of financial risks, the trust industry began to "shrink", but in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the second and third quarters, the decline is not very obvious. According to the China Trust Industry Association data, as of the end of the first quarter of 2018, the trust assets of 68 trust companies nationwide were 25.61 trillion yuan.
In April 2018, after the new regulations for asset management were officially launched, the channel business began to be greatly compressed. In the second quarter of 2018, the scale of trust assets decreased compared with the first quarter, and the balance of trust assets was 24.27 trillion yuan. From the perspective of the source structure of trust assets, the size of a single fund trust (usually referred to as channel business) has declined faster and the proportion has continued to decrease. At the end of the second quarter of 2018, the size of a single fund trust fell from 11.66 trillion yuan at the end of the first quarter to 10.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7%.
Beginning in the middle and late third quarter of 2018, part of the channel business was allowed to proceed, which was moderated compared with the completely suspended supervision attitude at the beginning of the year. The current trust scale fell by 1.13 trillion yuan, and the decline was narrowed. In the fourth quarter, the scale of the entrusted assets has undergone a major adjustment before entering a relatively stable period of relatively small fluctuations. The scale of trust assets in the current period decreased by 0.44 trillion yuan.
"In 2018, the trust industry is faced with a dual task. It is necessary to effectively prevent and control financial risks, eliminate various risk points, and actively promote business transformation, and avoid the ups and downs of asset scale in prevention and control risks. Next, the trust industry must be forward-looking. The macroscopic thinking has played a unique role in improving the efficiency of fund allocation in the trust industry,” said Yin Xingmin, director of the Trust Research Center of Fudan University.
Real estate and infrastructure trusts return to high levels
With the improvement of the financing environment, in the first quarter of 2019, the collective trust market also showed a significant rebound, and there was a significant rebound in the establishment and issuance of the fundraising.
According to the data of the use of trust trust network, a total of 64 trust companies issued 4,699 sets of trust products in the first quarter, with a scale of 566.681 billion yuan, an increase of 18.62% compared with the same period of last year. In the first quarter, a total of 60 trust companies raised a set of trust products 4277. Funds raised 468.294 billion yuan, a significant increase of 31.56% compared with the same period last year.
The China Trust Registration System data also shows that in the first quarter of this year, the issuance of collective fund trust plans showed a growth trend. The newly established scale was more than 480 billion yuan, accounting for 0.73% of the fourth quarter of 2018, an increase of 7.15 compared with the first quarter of 2018. %.
In terms of investment, the collective trusts in the real estate sector still accounted for the most in the first quarter of this year, while the products in the basic industry sector rose against the trend, which is the biggest growth point of the collective trust. In the first quarter of 2019, the real estate trust raised funds of 167.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.71%; the establishment of the basic industry collective trust was 114.957 billion yuan, an increase of 161.27%; the establishment of industrial and commercial enterprise trusts was 35.319 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year; The scale of the collection of trust funds was 119.17 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year.
A third-party wealth management industry official said that the scale of trust financing of real estate enterprises has always occupied a large scale, and there is a trend of further expansion in 2019. However, each trust company is more cautious in selecting projects. The funds are concentrated in the high-quality projects of the head housing enterprises and the first- and second-tier cities. "Small housing enterprises, weak guarantees, and weak mortgages are not allowed to vote." In addition, the new rules for asset management have stricter restrictions on non-standard assets in terms of maturity mismatches. In the future, real estate companies will become narrower and narrower in this area, and they can explore new paths such as equity investment and REITS.
“In the context of urban policy, the area where the real estate project is located is extremely important. Trust companies should give priority to the market with better market conditions. The strategic position of the three major urban circles of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei It has been quite prominent and will continue to release dividends. At the same time, trust companies should evaluate the investment value of real estate in each city by one city and one policy.
For the rapid growth of the basic industry collective trust, Yu Zhi, a researcher at the China Financial Trust Research Institute, said that the basic industry trusts in 2018 were generally suppressed by supervision, especially the negative impact of the cleanup of local government debts on the basic industry trusts. Larger. The government's credit contraction and slowdown in infrastructure projects have become the main obstacle to the growth of the basic industry trusts last year, but they have also laid a good foundation for the trust to play in the infrastructure sector. This year, the government debt increasedLong andBased on the gradual release of default risks, infrastructure trusts are expected to usher in new development opportunities.
(Article source: First Finance)