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Iron ore futures still have room to rebound

April 15, 2019 03:28
Author: Wang Zhu Ying

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Summary
[Iron ore futures still have room to rebound] Last week, the current price of iron ore appeared slightly different, and the spot price of imported iron ore continued to rise. However, the main contract of the iron ore futures of the Dachau has declined. Will this be a harbinger of price decline? Analysts believe that the recent unexpected incidents are frequent, and the follow-up supply is still tight. It is expected that more than one order can still be held. (China Securities Journal)

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Last week, the current price of iron ore appeared slightly different, and the spot price of imported iron ore continued to rise, but the iron ore futures of Dashang.Main forceThe contract has fallen back. Will this be a harbinger of price decline? Analysts believe that the recent unexpected incidents are frequent, and the follow-up supply is still tight. It is expected that more than one order can still be held.

Wenhua Finance and Economics data shows. The main 1909 contract for iron ore futures fell slightly by 0.61% last week. In terms of spot, according to the monitoring data of Lange Steel's cloud business platform, as of April 12, 58% of Australian powder reported US$81/ton, up by US$4/ton from the previous week; 61.5% Australian powder reported US$87/ton. The previous week rose by $4/ton; 62% of the Australian block was $116/ton, up $3/ton from the previous week.

In terms of external mines, shipments of freshwater valleys in Brazil have declined in the first quarter. Standing at the moment of time node analysis, Lange Steel Research CenterAnalystXu Liying expects that shipments in the second quarter will still be in a reduced state. In the first quarter of Australia, shipments were significantly reduced due to hurricanes, and will increase in the second quarter, but the year-on-year increase is limited, and the overall performance of shipments is relatively stable. In the short-term, the increase in iron ore production in non-mainstream mines is limited. In the case of high iron ore prices, it is expected to resume production in the later period.

Xu Liying believes that the operating rate and output of domestic iron fines mines have increased significantly after the Spring Festival. It is expected that domestic iron fines production will continue to increase in the second quarter. Overall, after the mine disaster in Brazil's Vale, the supply of global iron ore has shrunk, but its impact is lower than market expectations.

BOC International Futures believes that the steel mill started to rebound sharply, the profitability improved slightly, and the finished product inventory of building steel mills continued to shrink. Vale called tailings dam or reduced sales by 50-75 million tons, Rio Tinto due to hurricane damage to port equipmentcontractDeclaring force majeure, BHP Billiton estimates that the hurricane will reduce production by 6-8 million tons, and the supply will continue to shrink. It is recommended that iron ore futures continue to be held.

【Related reports】

  Singing against Goldman Sachs! Citi: Iron ore prices will rise to $100 per ton

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  Iron ore prices hit a five-year high

(Article source: China Securities Journal)

                (Editor: DF380)

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