Since the beginning of this year, the strong performance of the equity market has eclipsed the consolidation of the market last year. In fact, benefiting from the A-share market, the convertible bond market also has a good performance.
Open the first quarter of this yearDebt baseThe transcripts are not difficult to find, the majority of the increase is for convertible bonds.fundproduct. "This year, the convertible bond market has been driven by the stock market and has gone out of the general market. The convertible bond fund also has a good performance, far stronger than ordinary.Bond fund. Zhang Rong, the manager of Chuangxin Hexin Credit Convertible Fund, said in an interview with reporters recently.
Zhang Rong analyzed the main reasons for the market in the convertible bond market: First, this year, affected by various favorable factors, the stock market bottomed out. Second, the convertible bonds have both the characteristics of stocks and debts, and are affected by the stock market and the bond market. In the current stage of the stock market's strength, the convertible bonds more reflect the stock, followed by the stock market to rise simultaneously. Third, since 2017, the convertible bond market has continued to develop rapidly and has received increasing attention from the market. At present, there are more than 140 convertible bonds in the market, with a scale of more than 300 billion yuan and an average daily transaction volume of nearly 10 billion yuan. Convertible bonds have become an important refinancing tool for listed companies, and they have also become important investment products for investors.
"I am still optimistic about the follow-up performance of the convertible bond market." Zhang Rong said, first of all, the stock market is expected to continue to strengthen and drive the convertible bond market to improve. Second, the convertible bond market is increasingly valued by listed companies and investors. With the expansion of the market, there are many well-qualified targets in the newly issued and forthcoming convertible bonds, which will bring more opportunities for investors. Finally, the success of the previous three-year convertible bonds and other vouchersConversion, brought a lot of benefits to investors. Convertible bonds have the characteristics of bottoming out and rising space, and are further recognized by the market, suitable for relatively conservative investors. In addition, the overall income expectation of bonds this year is relatively general. For bond investors, convertible bonds are a better choice for improving profits, which can control risks and share profits.
Zhang Rong said that the currentbankThe overall valuation of the stock is at a historical low, PE is less than 7 times, PB is only 0.9 times, and the overall ROE is maintained at around 14%. Bank stocks may fluctuate in the short term, but looking back for three years, the growth of net assets is expected to be above 40%. Therefore, even if the PB valuation remains low for a long time, the long-term gains of bank stocks are relatively stable. For bond investment, the downside risk of bank convertible bonds is currently limited, and the long-term upside is considerable, which is the ideal allocation target.
Zhang Rong said that although the best rising stage of the bond market has passed, it is subject to fundamentals.interest rateEasy to go on, the bond market is still in the second half of the bull market. This means that the bond market will not be a negative drag on convertible bonds. At the same time, the performance of the stock market is still worth looking forward to. After the big rise in the first quarter, there may be adjustments, but the upward trend will not change. There will be structural opportunities in the shock. As far as the convertible bond market itself is concerned, although the circulation of convertible bonds has increased, the demand is also very strong, the liquidity is constantly improving, and there is no shortage of large-cap blue-chip convertible bonds in the subsequent new convertible bonds, which will further enhance the attractiveness of the conversion bond market. .
When talking about the specific configuration targets, Zhang Rong suggested: First, the allocation of convertible bonds with good fundamentals and reasonable valuation, avoidingthemeStocks and overhyped varieties. The second is to allocate large-capacity, liquidity and high-rated convertible bonds, avoiding small-cap, low-liquidity and low-rated convertible bonds.
(Article source: Shanghai Securities News)