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GF strategy Dai Kang: March social welfare exceeded expectations A-share configuration around two main lines

April 15, 2019 07:52
Author:Dai Kang
source: Dai Kang's strategic world

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In the initial stage of credit expansion and M1-M2 bottoming out, the market mainly focused on two clues: 1) the continued benefit of wide credit to bring high performance elasticity expectation; 2) the industry's own high performance can be verified. Corresponding to the current situation, it is recommended to pay attention to construction machinery and heavy trucks that continue to benefit from wide credit, as well as liquor and home appliances with verifiable performance.

  In March, the social welfare exceeded expectations, widecurrencyConfirmation of wide credit

Since 1.6, we have been actively looking at more A-shares. 3.7 proposes to “make the market play a greater role in resource allocation” and launch “financial supply side slow cattle”. 4.3 "The cyclical stocks ushered in the absolute and relative income stage" suggests that the wide-currency and wide-band credit transmission effect is beginning to appear, and the core contradictions of the market will also be phased to the molecular end. The expected improvement in economic growth will make the previous stagflation cycle stocks ushered in absolute And the relative income stage. In March, the social welfare exceeded expectations, credit transmission confirmed to be effective, and the expectation of bottoming out in the second quarter will be strengthened.

The core contradiction of A-shares turns to the molecular end

The driving force of the denominator is slowed mainly based on the market's expected marginal changes in monetary policy: 1) the upward adjustment of the inflation center; 2) the initial effect of credit expansion, the need to continue large-scale easing; 3) the central bank OMO reflects the marginal change . The core contradiction of the A-shares turned to the molecular end. The price performance of large-scale assets with recent debt declines, rising stocks and rising commodities is also confirming the above logic.

  What is the core contradiction and style rotation experience of the A-share history bears?

From the initial experience of comparable bear-turning cattle in the history of A-shares, the valuation expansion of +3M to +6M on the bottom right side is often smaller than the first three months. The short-term trend of the market is positively related to the change in profitability. In addition, in the early stage on the bottom right side, after a round of complete style rotation (each style runs for at least two consecutive weeks), and the style of the previous stagflation, the market tends to oscillate. It is expected that cyclical stocks will continue to lead the market in the short term, and it is necessary to pay closer attention to the changes in the fundamentals of April-May in the future.

  In the early days of the historical M1-M2 year-on-year growth rate, the A-share configuration was launched around two main lines.

In March, the M1 year-on-year and M2 year-on-year scissors gaps continued to converge, reflecting the upward trend in business activity and the improvement in micro-expectations. In the context of several rounds of credit expansion in recent years, the M1-M2 lows rebounded in a comparable four-round period, from the currency,interest rateInflation,PPIThe comprehensive consideration of profit growth and ERP dimensions should currently be between 2006 and 12 years. The comparability between 2009 and 15 years is small. In the early days of credit expansion and M1-M2 bottoming out, the market mainly focused on two clues:1) Wide credit continues to benefit from highPerformanceFlexible expectations; 2) The industry's own high-profile performance can be verified.Corresponding to the current situation, it is recommended to pay attention to construction machinery and heavy trucks that continue to benefit from wide credit, as well as liquor and home appliances with verifiable performance.

  Continue to cycle up, configure wide credit to continue to benefit + industry high performance can be verified

The financial supply side continues to slow down. The core contradiction of A-shares at the current stage is the molecular end. The economic and financial data in March will help the market to gradually raise the profit forecast of the previously pessimistic economic growth enterprises, and the cycle will continue to increase. At the beginning of the M1-M2 bottom-up, it is recommended to pay attention to construction machinery, heavy trucks, liquor, and home appliances. In addition, non-ferrous (basic metals, industrial metals) and chemicals (PVC, soda ash, polyester, MDI, etc.) ushered in the opportunity to make up. The theme investment focuses on the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises, old-age services, and the integration of the Yangtze River Delta.

  ● Core hypothetical risks:Overseas volatility has intensified, policy strengths have not reached expectations, and the quarterly report was lower than expected.

(Article source: Dai Kang's strategic world)

                (Editor: DF078)

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