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After the domestic product oil price increase, the agency analysis: the next round is still expected to increase

April 15, 2019 08:10
Author: Zhou Cheng Cheng

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Summary
[Institutional analysis of domestic refined oil prices after price increase: The current round of international crude oil price calculations, the next round of refined oil price adjustment cycle may still show an upward trend, the range is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the international crude oil market is stable, OPEC's favorable atmosphere for production reduction continues, economic data in some parts of the world has picked up, and the impact of geopolitical factors such as Libya and Venezuela has brought positive support for crude oil prices. It is expected that the probability of a slight increase in the next round of refined oil price adjustment is greater. (Daily Economic News)

Affected by multiple factors such as Brent crude oil rebounding to above $70/barrel for the first time in the past five months, domesticRefined oilThe price has risen again.

On April 12, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission showed that the current finished productOil priceThe grid formation mechanism, since 24 o'clock on April 12, 2019, domestic steam,DieselThe price (standard product, the same below) increased by 155 yuan and 150 yuan per ton respectively.

This price adjustment is equivalent togasoline89 yuan per liter, 0.11 yuan, 92 yuan 0.12 yuan, 95 yuan 0.13 yuan, 0 yuan diesel fuel 0.13 yuan. According to the agency's calculation, after the price adjustment, the ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L will cost the owner more than 6 yuan to fill a box of oil.

Longzhong InformationAnalystLi Yan told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that with the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment cycle may still show an upward trend, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. At present, the international crude oil market is stable, OPEC's favorable atmosphere for production reduction continues, economic data in some parts of the world has picked up, and the impact of geopolitical factors such as Libya and Venezuela has brought positive support for crude oil prices. It is expected that the probability of a slight increase in the next round of refined oil price adjustment is greater.

Cloth oil price station on the $70/barrel mark

This round of pricing cycle, OPEC (OPEC) member countries' production cuts continue to provide strong support for oil prices.

On April 9, the monthly report released by OPEC showed that crude oil production in March decreased by 534,000 barrels per day to a level of 30.22 million barrels per day, which is the lowest daily output since February 2015, before February. It is 30.549 million barrels per day.

The geopolitical situation has also become an important factor in pushing up oil prices: the conflict in Libya has escalated, the tension between the United States and Iran has intensified, and the tightening of crude oil supply has been further strengthened. The speculative sentiment in the market has formed a bullish dominant pattern, and international oil prices are likely to rise and fall.

Under the support of multiple benefits, on April 8, Brent crude oil rebounded to above $70/barrel for the first time in nearly five months. On April 10, Brent crude oil closed at above $71, reaching $71.73 per barrel. The price of light crude oil for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange approached $65/barrel.

Since then, although the International Energy Agency warned that the global economic slowdown and the demand for crude oil, and the April 11 oil and New Zealand crude oil futures closed down, but the overall increase in the previous international crude oil situation has been the domestic refined oil prices The upward adjustment laid a solid foundation.

The oil price adjustment is also the sixth increase this year, with the price of gasoline and diesel being increased by 155 yuan and 150 yuan per ton respectively. After the current round of price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil in 2019 showed a pattern of “six rises, one fell, one stranded”. After the ups and downs, the cumulative increase in gasoline reached 680 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase in diesel oil reached 675 yuan / ton.

The next round of refined oil prices still have expectations

For the impact of this price adjustment on the consumer side, Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Oil analyst Zhang Yixin told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that a family car with a tank capacity of 50L will be increased by 6 yuan compared with the previous one. For example, a small private car with a fuel consumption of 8 kilometers per month is used. For example, in the half-month period before the next price adjustment window is opened (24 o'clock on April 26), the cost of oil for consumers will cost 9.6 yuan more. about.

The increase in the expenditure cost of the logistics industry is more obvious. Zhang Yuxin said that for a stellar run with a monthly fuel consumption of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38 liters, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by about 247 yuan in the next half month.

Previously, on April 1, due to the reduction in the VAT rate, the retail price of refined oil in most areas of the country was lowered by 0.2 yuan/liter. After the current round of price adjustment, according to Longzhong information monitoring data, the price of motor diesel in most areas of the country is about 6.6 yuan / liter, the retail price limit of 92 gasoline is 6.9 ~ 7.0 yuan / liter.

Liu Pei-pei, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that this time the increase is large, which will bring some boost to the market buying and selling atmosphere. Beginning in the middle and late April, the demand for gasoline and diesel in the north continued to improve. Although the rainy season and the fishing moratorium in the south came, the impact on terminal purchase and sales was limited.

In terms of refining, the pressure on diesel stocks is not large. Before the advent of May 1st, it will be affected by high-speed traffic restrictions. The new round of stocking will come again. The retail price of gas stations will rise and profits will rise, driving gasoline stations at the gas station to continue to stock up. It is expected that after this price adjustment, the probability of the main and local refining and diesel prices continuing to rise slightly will continue to rise slightly. After the end of the May 1st holiday, the market enters the inventory digestion stage, and the price may be slightly adjusted.

For the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustment expectations, the organization generally believes that the probability of upward adjustment is large.

Zhuo Chuang Information Analysis believes that OPEC's production reduction actions will still provide support for international oil prices. The peak of US travel has caused gasoline inventories to fall, and supply and demand are relatively optimistic, but the continued decline in economic growth will drag down the oil market. Recently, the international oil price has a high probability of high fluctuations, and it is not possible to rule out the possibility of short-term skyrocketing due to geo-risk. The domestic recalculated crude oil change rate may be at a positive value, and the ninth refined oil price limit adjustment during the year, that is, at 24 o'clock on April 26, there is still an upward adjustment.

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(Article source: Daily Economic News)

                (Editor: DF070)

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