The central bank's website showed on April 15 that China's central bank's foreign exchange accounted for 21.3 trillion yuan at the end of March, down 460 million yuan from the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline.
A few days ago, the data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that as of the end of March 2019, Chinaforeign exchange reservesThe scale was 3,098.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.6 billion US dollars from the end of February, achieving a "five consecutive rises." Analysts pointed out that behind the "external reserve and rising" is the support of China's stable economy and good fundamentals, reflecting the increased confidence of foreign investors in the Chinese market. In the future, the size of foreign exchange reserves may still fluctuate up and down, but the overall stability will not change.
5 months increased by 45.7 billion US dollars
Since the end of the "three consecutive landings" in November last year, China's foreign exchange reserves have risen for five consecutive months, a cumulative increase of 45.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.5%.
Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, told this reporter that the continuous rise in the size of foreign exchange reserves in the past five months is the result of a combination of factors including continuing to maintain trade surplus, accelerating foreign capital inflows, and increasing asset prices in reserve investment. , the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
Zhao Xijun further pointed out that in addition to US dollar assets, China’s foreign exchange reserves still have some non-US dollars such as British pound, euro, and Japanese yen.currencyassets. Judging from the situation in the past two months, the continued rise in the US dollar index has led to a decline in the valuation of non-US assets. However, since the beginning of the year, the monetary policies of major global countries have been loosened, pushing the prices of various assets including stocks and bonds. The rise has become one of the main reasons for the rise in the size of foreign exchange reserves.
According to the analysis of the reasons for the changes in the size of foreign exchange reserves of the foreign exchange bureau, in the past five months, asset prices have risen to varying degrees, driving the valuation of foreign exchange reserves and the balance to rise.
China Merchants Securities Chief MacroAnalystXie Yaxuan said that the income from the investment in foreign assets will naturally increase the balance of the foreign reserves. "Interest income is expected to exceed 100 billion US dollars this year, so the growth of about 10 billion US dollars per month is a normal result."
Residents who purchase foreign exchange more rationally and do not blindly purchase foreign exchange are also considered by the industry to be a reason for the rise in the size of foreign exchange reserves. According to the data of the foreign exchange bureau, in January-February, the personal settlement and sales of foreign exchange remained basically stable, and the net purchase of foreign exchange decreased by 19%.
Liu Jian, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, believes that China's exports may improve significantly in March, the foreign exchange market is expected to be stable, and foreign exchange supply and demand continue to improve, all contributing to the growth of foreign exchange reserves.
Global funds are optimistic about the Chinese market
"Although the external environment is unbalanced and there are many uncertainties, the good fundamentals of China's economy provide a solid foundation for the stable scale of foreign exchange reserves." Zhao Xijun said that a stable and positive economic fundamentals have brought positive to foreign investors. Stable expectations have attracted it to increase investment in China's real economy and capital markets, and to support the rise in foreign exchange reserves.
Since the beginning of this year, China’s economic warmth has been strong, and many indicators have undergone positive changes: the first two months,Fixed asset investmentSteadily picking up,Consumer confidence indexThe new manufacturing orders index of the manufacturing industry was obviously higher, and the capital market was active. In March, the average daily power generation rate reached double digits.import and exportGrowth in freight transportation, etc.; in particular, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index and non-manufacturing business activity index both rebounded in March, manufacturingPMIAfter three consecutive months below the critical point, it rose to 50.5%, and the non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 54.8%.
According to a recent report by the German "Business Daily" website, factors such as China's economic recovery have pushed the stock market's gains in the first three months to record, and foreign investors once again favor Chinese stocks. According to foreign media reports, the stock market's rise has been supported by a sharp rise in China's manufacturing activity index, which has alleviated concerns about China's second-largest economy in the world and the main growth engine of the global economy.
The data shows that this year, through Shanghai,Deep shareThe funds flowing into A shares have exceeded 100 billion yuan. Recently, the International Finance Association released a report saying that the Chinese stock market will be in the next two years.Net inflowIt will reach $105 billion and $111 billion, respectively.
Beyond the stock market, the bond market also attracts a lot of foreign capital. Since April 1 this year, Chinese bonds have been officially included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Composite Index. The industry expects that the full inclusion of the index will bring at least 100 billion US dollars of inflows to China each year.
The International Finance Association's report also predicts that international capital flowing into China this year will reach about 575 billion US dollars, and China will continue to be a key driver of capital inflows in emerging markets. The United States has also reported that all indications indicate that more funds will flow into the Chinese market this year.
Maintain overall stability in fluctuations
For the next trend of foreign exchange reserve scale, Zhao Xijun believes that maintaining overall stability in volatility will remain the basic trend. On the one hand, the current international environment is still complicated and severe, and the global economic situation and financial market uncertainty have risen. On the other hand, the Chinese economy is still expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate of more than 6% this year, while continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and Steady monetary policy, deepening market-oriented reforms, and expanding high-level openness will help strengthen the confidence of global investors in entering the Chinese market and maintain cross-borderCash flowDynamic stability and balance of payments.
Wang Chunying, chief economist of the foreign exchange bureau, pointed out that in addition, factors such as the substantial progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations and the apparent weakening of the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations are also conducive to stabilizing market expectations.
Liu Jian expects that in April, the yield of US Treasury bonds will rebound to a certain extent. The improvement of US short-term economic data will drive the US dollar to fluctuate stronger. The valuation of bonds and exchange rates may be negative, and the growth of foreign reserves may shrink, but with the relationship between foreign exchange supply and demand. Better, capital may maintain a net inflow, which helps the scale of foreign exchange reserves to be basically stable.
Zhao Qingming, chief economist of the China Financial Futures Exchange Research Institute, also believes that the scale of foreign exchange reserves will remain stable in the future, “smallingly increasing or decreasing slightly. It will remain in such a state for some time to come, and the balance will be stable overall.”
Wang Chunying said that in the face of the complicated and ever-changing international economic and financial situation, China will continue to deepen the supply-side structural reforms and keep the economic operation in a reasonable range. At the same time, as the RMB exchange rate elasticity increases, the exchange rate “automatic stabilizer” function gradually emerges. Overall, it is conducive to the stability of China's foreign exchange reserves. (Source: People's Daily Overseas Edition)
(Article source: Securities Times Network)