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In 2019, the first step of directional RRRR is landing today! The property market and the stock market go this way.

May 15, 2019 01:33
source: Zhongxin Jingwei

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[2019 directional RRR first step today! The property market and the stock market go like this] Zhang Jingwei, a researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, pointed out that the central bank’s policy of directional RRR cuts has been implemented for several years, and the liquidity released during the implementation process has not strictly flowed to the policy-oriented goal. The profit-seeking nature of capital determines the areas that always flow to profit and make quick money, such as the property market and the stock market. (Zhongxin Jingwei)

The first phase of targeted reduction in 2019 (three implementations) was officially effective today (15th).

  The RRR cut was unexpectedly implemented in three times.

After two rumors in April, the Chinese central bank announced a RRR cut in the first trading day of May (6th), 33 seconds before the official opening of the stock market, some unexpected.

On May 6, the central bank announced that it decided to start from May 15, 2019, focusing on small and medium-sized local and service counties.bank, implement a lower preferential deposit reserve ratio. Rural businesses that operate only in the county-level administrative area, or have branches in other county-level administrative regions but have assets of less than 10 billion yuan.bank, the implementation of the same level of deposit reserve ratio as the rural credit cooperatives, the grade is currently 8%. About 1,000 county-level rural commercial banks can enjoy this preferential policy and release long-term funds of about 280 billion yuan, all for the loans of private and small and micro enterprises.

The relevant person in charge of the central bank said on the same day that in order to securely and orderly release funds and ensure the expansion of the credit supply, the deposit reserve ratio adjustment will be implemented in three times on May 15, June 17 and July 15. .

This is the second time the central bank has lowered the standard. The first round of the 2019 downgrade was completed twice in January this year. The total amount of funds released twice was about 1.5 trillion yuan.

Due to the current small capital gap and the small amount of funds released, many institutions believe that the RRR cut is not due to liquidity considerations, and is aimed at implementing the requirements of the State Council executive meeting to establish a small and medium-sizedbankImplement a policy framework for lower deposit reserve ratios and increase small and medium-sizedbankSupport for the local small and medium-sized private economy, and promote the reduction of financing costs for small and micro enterprises.

According to the report of the macro research team of Xingye Research, the county-level rural commercial banks and non-county agricultural commercial banks with assets below 10 billion are included in the scope of the 8.0% reserve ratio. Due to the limited scope of the organization, the scale of funds released by the RRR reduction is 280 billion, which is close to the level of 0.2 percentage point reduction. Compared with the liquidity of the RRR release, the timing of the RRR cut and the policy signal behind it are more worthy of attention.

  CITIC SecuritiesMing Ming, deputy director of the institute, pointed out that the RRR reduction is not based on liquidity considerations but still supports the credit of small and private enterprises. He predicted that the average release of 900-100 billion yuan in May, June and July.

  CITIC Construction InvestmentAnalyst Huang Wentao believes that the main significance of this RRRR for the county-level rural commercial banks is to improve the current deposit reserve ratio system, which is in line with the State Council’s executive meeting.bankThe requirements of a policy framework for a lower deposit reserve ratio.

  How to affect the stock market

Zhang Jingwei, a researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, pointed out that the central bank's targeted RRR cut policy has been implemented for several years, and the liquidity released during the implementation process has not strictly flowed to the policy-oriented goal. The profit-seeking nature of capital determines the areas that always flow to profit and make quick money, such as the property market and the stock market.

Then, does this targeted RRR change affect the stock market, bond market and property market?

Property market:

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center think tank, believes that this RRR cut will release positive signals and benefit the property market by reducing capital costs. This may bring benefits to the property market in the second quarter of this year, changes in market expectations, and lower investment costs. In particular, it will form a better stimulating effect on the regional structure.

"Although in theory such funds can only flow into private and small and micro enterprises, but objectivelybankThe financial constraints have been reduced, and the space for lending has increased, which will stimulate the development of loans and mortgage loans. This classbankSome of them are limited to the county area, so the subsequent county property market will be relatively active. In particular, Baiqiang County and poverty-stricken counties need morebankLoan funds are supported, which is good for transactions in the property market in such regions. Of course, we must also control some of the recent inflow of illegal funds.real estateMarket risk. "Yan Yuejin said.

  Everbright BankZhou Maohua, a macro analyst at the Financial Markets Department, believes that the central bank will strengthen supervision and evaluation of capital flows. This makes the fund violation bypassreal estateThe possibility of a significant decline, at the same time, domesticreal estateThe regulation has not been withdrawn, but it is more emphasized because of the city's policy and precise regulation.

Bond market:

For the bond market, Shanghai Securities analyst Chen Yanli said that the worries of tightening monetary policy have declined, and the RRR cut can still be expected, and cost reduction is the focus of the task. The effect of the bond market has weakened, and the pressure on the bond market has been released. After the interest rate is adjusted to a high of 3.4, the allocation value is highlighted. If the economy recovers repeatedly and inflation is lower than expected, the bond market may have a chance.

The New Times Securities macro research team believes that the future structural monetary policy tools will become the focus of monetary policy. Under the premise of “flexible and prudent”, short-term monetary policy will not change the overall tone of “stable and loose”. The fundamental recovery has a repetitive background, which is conducive to the repair of the bond market.

Stock market:

Since 2018, five times of RRR cuts have been implemented. The data of the Zhongxin Jingwei client has found that the A-share Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index both closed on the green day. The first round of the RRR cut in 2019 was completed twice. On the effective date, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index were all received in red.

Regarding the impact of the RRR cut on the stock market, Zhou Maohua believes that there are three main aspects. First, further consolidate the pattern of economic stabilization, stabilize the fundamentals, improve the earnings prospects of the company, and benefit the stock market performance. Second, the RRR reduction itself is to release liquidity, and the monetary policy is loose and favorable to market sentiment. Third, the central bank will reduce the timing and release to the market. The use of support is to avoid further market fermentation and self-improvement. At present, global investors are still optimistic about the long-term development prospects of China's capital market.

The New Times Securities macro research team believes that the central bank's short-term release of liquidity will help stabilize capital market expectations through the “Asymmetric Reduction + TMLF+OMO” operation; as the valuation is restored, wide currency is extended to wide credit, the stock market Investment opportunities still depend on the improvement of the profitability of listed companies.

  Is there still room for RRR reduction?

The Dongguan Securities Research Institute reported that there is still a prospect of a targeted RRR reduction in the future, but the probability of a full RRR reduction is very low. First of all, the economic stability is relatively low, real estate has a large downward pressure and the role of infrastructure construction will not be too great. Under the background of economic downturn, small and medium-sized enterprises still face financing difficulties, and stable employment needs timely targeted reduction; Secondly, in the context of the decline in China's foreign exchange holdings, RRR cuts have become an important channel for releasing funds. The current China reserve ratio is still higher than that of overseas countries, which provides objective conditions for RRR cuts.

At the same time, the report also lists two reasons that are not suitable for full RRR reduction. First, the current price has risen a lot. From the upward trend of pork prices and refined oil prices, the probability of CPI continuing to rise in April is still relatively large. Second, increase the supply-side reform requires a neutral monetary policy. Otherwise, the fluctuation of funds will affect the decision-making incentives of enterprises, which may weaken the effect of supply-side reform.

The Industrial Research Macro Team report pointed out that stock exchanges, city commercial banks, large non-county farmer firms, and rural credit cooperatives may still have room for further RRR reduction. On the one hand, in June and July, respectively, 663 billion yuan and 690.5 billion medium-term loan facilities (MLF) expired, and JunebankThe system has higher demand for inter-season funds, and the funding side will still face a large liquidity gap. On the other hand, the three-month fund rate is close to the 2016 low, and there is limited room for further decline, but the premium between the 1-year and 3-month fund rates is still high, to reduce the financing costs of small and micro enterprises. The goal is to reduce the cost of medium and long-term funds by reducing the reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions.

  Bank of CommunicationsChief economist Lian Ping believes that the future direction adjustment policy will be further deepened. Future direction adjustment may not be the only means of targeted RRR reduction. The innovative credit policy supports the scope of qualified collateral for re-lending, expanding monetary policy instruments such as refinancing, increasing private enterprise bond financing support tools, and expanding targeted medium-term lending facilities (TMLF). Etc., it is possible to become a tool option for the orientation adjustment policy.

Chen Yanli said that China will maintain a relatively stable liquidity situation in the future, and it is bound to face the following choices: lowering standards and creating new benchmark currency channels. However, from the current operation of the central bank, structural tools will be more favored, and targeted reductions and TMLF will be more popular.

Dong Xiwei, deputy dean of the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, stressed that the RRR cut is not the only means to alleviate the financing difficulties and financing problems of private and small and micro enterprises. For partbankIn terms of current, liquidity is already abundant. How to comprehensively implement policies and allow the funds released by the RRR to enter the real economy more efficiently is a key to solving related problems. In this sense, it is more important than the RRR cut to dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and further promote and deepen the reform of interest rate marketization.

  Interpretation >>>

  The central bank continues to do MLF release two major signals

  Improve economic resilience, the central bank's "directed drip irrigation" frequency or strengthen

  Li Xunlei: There will be no more policies to stimulate real estate. It is expected that there will be a RRR cut in July this year.

  CITIC Securities: It is expected that the target of the “second gear” medium-sized bank will have a higher probability of directional RRR

(Article source: Zhongxin Jingwei)

                (Editor: DF372)

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