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Expert: May liquidity return to loose "spicy powder" or return to normal

May 15, 2019 03:15

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Summary
[May liquidity returns to loose "spicy powder" or return to normal] Undoubtedly, since May, the overall face of funds is loose, but market participants believe that there will still be liquidity disturbances in the future, but the probability will be smooth across month. (21st Century Business Herald)

Wen Bin pointed out that interest rates were significantly lower in early May, and the current rate of interest rate recovery is only returning to a relatively rational range. In the long run, the funds are generally stable.

On May 14th, the central bank announced that the mid-term loan facilitation (MLF) operation was 200 billion yuan due to factors such as the expiration of tax and tax, and the amount of maturity exceeded 44 billion yuan. Considering that there was a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase on the same day, the central bank posted a net investment of 24 billion yuan.

From the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald, affected by the use of other currency instruments such as TMLF and directional RRR, the central bank only restarted the MLF operation from 2019 to April 16 and resumed in April and May, MLF or Will return to normal. Previously, the central bank's four MLF expirations since 2019 were sequels, and the market once had a voice to discuss whether the central bank would use other currency instruments instead of MLF.

From the market situation, after the liquidity has tightened in April, the market liquidity has once again turned loose with the financial investment and the pressure on capital demand reduced since May. Especially in the first two weeks of May, the capital price went down further, and DR001 once fell to 1.15%, the lowest level since 2016. Although the short-term fund rate has risen for two consecutive trading days this week, the overall interest rate remains reasonable and low.

A trader of a farmer's bank in North China told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that because the interest rate of funds overnight fell too fast last week, the amount of short-term funds traded was small, and the transaction was mainly based on long-term funds. Since the beginning of this week, the market and market demand have mainly focused on financing. Today, at the close, the trading volume is very small.

  May liquidity gap 1 trillion

Undoubtedly, since May, the overall face of funds has been loose, but market participants believe that there will still be liquidity disturbances in the future, but the probability will be smooth across the moon.

  Industrial BankThe chief economist Lu political commissar told reporters in the 21st century economic report that there is still some pressure on liquidity. First, the MLF will have a large amount of maturity in the coming months. Secondly, according to previous estimates, the liquidity gap in May is about 1 trillion, and the next targeted RRR cut will release 280 billion yuan. It is to be released in three parts. Today, the central bank launched 200 billion yuan MLF, mainly to hedge the maturity funds and stabilize the funds.

  Minsheng BankIn an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald, the chief researcher Wen Bin said that although the central bank has launched a medium-term loan facility of 200 billion yuan today, the MLF has a maturity of 156 billion, and 20 billion central bank reverse repurchase expires. The market has a net investment of 24 billion yuan. This operation is mainly to hedge the maturity of funds, the smooth liquidity environment MLF excess continuation to hedge the liquidity gap, stabilize the funding, and the delivery is relatively accurate.

In response to the current interest rate fluctuations, Wen Bin pointed out that under the influence of seasonal factors, liquidity is usually loose at the beginning of the month and tight at the end of the month. Interest rates were significantly lower in early May, and the current rate of interest rate recovery is only returning to a relatively rational range. In the long run, the funds are generally stable.

A number of market participants generally pointed out that due to the holiday factors, the May tax return deadline will be delayed, the peak of the tax period may appear at the beginning of next week, but the impact of the tax factor from this week may appear. Despite the impact of tax cuts and reductions, the impact of the tax factor on the liquidity in May is not expected to be as obvious as in previous years. However, in the case of a general balance between liquidity supply and demand, the marginal impact of tax factors on liquidity operations is still not acceptable. Neglect.

Wen Bin pointed out that the factors affecting the funds are diverse, such as fiscal deposits, local bond issuance, and the base currency of peripheral accounts. However, no matter how the influencing factors change, the current central bank's policy tool reserves are very rich, which can completely balance the short-term fluctuations caused by short-term factors to the market, so that the market interest rate is generally maintained at a reasonable and stable level.

  External factors have limited interference on the funds side

  CITIC SecuritiesMacro analysts clearly told reporters in the 21st century economic report that the internal and external environment has changed rapidly in the near future, and the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy based on stability has also been strengthened.

He specifically pointed out that after the May Day, domestic and international market volatility increased, and the central bank stabilized market sentiment through targeted RRR cuts. April financial data overall weakened, credit is inbankAfter the first quarter of the mortgage loan behavior, there was a fall, credit decline and off-balance sheet financing continued to shrink, which dragged down the growth of social welfare, and the growth rate was down. High-frequency data since April also showed that physical demand has fallen back after the start of work.

Therefore, taking into account the marginal slowdown in domestic demand, the external environment uncertainty has increased, the economic recovery momentum has weakened, and the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy has been strengthened. This is reflected in the liquidity release and the MLF incremental sequel. To stabilize the real economy and financial market volatility.

From the results, the effectiveness of this initiative is obvious.

Wen Bin also pointed out that no matter how the external uncertain factors change, from the perspective of the central bank, the policy work reserve is still sufficient, and there is still a lot of room to ensure liquidity stability.

He also pointed out that it is necessary to smooth the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, increase financial support for the real economy, and especially solve the problem of financing difficult financing for small and micro enterprises.

A trader of a farmer's bank in South China told reporters that in the face of external pressures, many people in the industry believed that the negative impact on the funds side was not large, and even beneficial, and expected to be stable over time. Mainly from the confidence of the government and the central bank to maintain funds, so the recent capital prices are at a low level, the demand for institutional integration is not much. But frombankThe flow of liquidity to the real economy requires a certain conduction process.

(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)

                (Editor: DF372)

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