In May, chickens and pigs will enter the demand season at the same time. So at the current time, is there any investment opportunity in the chicken and pig sector? Is the logic changed?
First, the seasonality of the pig price, starting in the peak season in May
Seasonal price of live pigs: January-April is the price down cycle, mid-August is the price up cycle, and September-December is the sideways cycle. At present, the market is the resonance logic of pigs and chickens. The trend is mutually influential. Now they are still in the upward stage, which is the zero point before the price rises again.
Seasonal demand for pork: Pork demand also has a certain seasonality. Generally, the Spring Festival is the peak of pig consumption. The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are the second peaks. The spring and summer of March-August is the off-season of pig consumption. After December, the north has entered the winter of snowflake, which is the peak season for pork consumption. At the same time, near the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, big supermarkets and slaughter companies began to reserve pork, which is also a very prosperous month.
The rise and fall of pig prices is inconsistent with the peak demand season.
Second, the next point to be closely tracked
1. The data of the Ministry of Agriculture. Every month, the Ministry of Agriculture will announce the year-on-year, ring-to-door and ring-to-breed stocks of live pigs, and the number of pigs will not be announced. The April data is expected to be announced as early as May 14. According to the monitoring, at the end of April 2019, the number of capable sows decreased by 2.49% from the previous month and decreased by 25.33% year-on-year; the national stock of pigs decreased by 1.53% from the previous month and decreased by 22.54%. Mainly the ring is still falling, it seems that the southern epidemic is more serious than expected.
2. Data of listed companies. The Ministry of Agriculture announced the inventory data, the more serious the year-on-year decline, the more favorable the stock price rise, and the specific case to the listed company, the opposite is true, the pig that can survive is the golden pig. For listed companies, the sales volume of sales of pigs is higher than that of the previous year and the growth rate of the chain is higher. If the market is expected to exceed the market expectations, the excess returns can be obtained. However, the amount of slaughter is not accurately estimated and is uncertain. The market is beginning to pursue certainty, just a short check is unreliable. Market rumors that the death of sows in listed companies far exceeds actualannouncementYes, the truth is true, the proposal is still based on announcements, and this rumor will always exist.
Third, there is still room for valuation of pig stocks?
I believe that everyone has a question, after the pig stocks rose 5-6 times, is there room?
What we can confirm this time is that the cycle will exceed 2016, the duration will exceed 16 years, and the pig price will break through the 16-year high, so the valuation should be able to break through 16 years. If the benchmark is based on 2016, the average market capitalization in 2020 will be more than 50% of the pig stocks compared to 2016.
And ifMakino shares(Pure pig farming, no feed and other businesses) 2016 average market capitalization as a benchmark, considerMakino sharesAdvantages of breeding costs, etc., the market value of other pig stocks hit 8.5 fold: other pig stocks valuation space = (16 years of pastoral head market value * 0.85 / 20 years average market value -1) * 100%.
Considering that the non-pig business accounts for part of the market value, there is still 40-80% of the relevant pig stock valuation space.
The above two valuation methods, the valuation of pig stocks is more than 50%.
(Article source: Investment Express)