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Tianfeng Macro Song Xuetao: There is still room for generalized finance. The total amount of monetary policy is limited.

May 15, 2019 08:07

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Summary
After the acceleration of the fiscal expenditure and the money release in the first quarter, it converges in April; there is still some room for force in the general financial follow-up; the space for the follow-up of the monetary policy has limited space, but there is room for improvement in the structural level. .

Since the beginning of the year, financial andcurrencyThe acceleration of policy is an important factor in the economic resilience exceeding expectations. We estimate that:The timeline progress of public finance expenditure in the first quarter reached 100%, and 96% in January-April, which was the fastest in the calendar year. In the first quarter, the newly issued general and special bonds issued by local governments reached 56% and 31% of the annual quota. Progress is significantly ahead of previous years(The same period last year was basically 0); the central bank has been downgraded twice (in January, the overall reduction of 100bp, May small and mediumbankDirectional RRR cuts, net long-term funding of 1.08 trillion.

While the positive counter-cyclical policy has brought economic toughness beyond expectations, it has also raised concerns about the downward pressure on the economy due to insufficient policy space. We measured the usage of conventional fiscal and monetary policies from January to April and the overall space for the whole year. The results show that:After the acceleration of the fiscal expenditure and the money release in the first quarter, it converges in April; there is still some room for force in the general financial follow-up; the space for the follow-up of the monetary policy has limited space, but there is room for improvement in the structural level. .

Partial April economic data released in May (PMI, export, social integrationCreditEtc.) Apparently falling back,We believe that after the policy has slightly converged in April, it may be re-added in the camera choice in the future..Currency aspectRecently, the central bank's liquidity operation has become more active. Excessive sequel to MLF and increased OMO net release are positive signals. Concerns about the overall tightening of monetary policy have subsided, and policy expectations are re-turning to marginal easing;Financial aspectIn the second half of the year, the space for generalized finance is still not small. The quasi-fiscal finance outside the budget can make up for the decline in public budget revenue after tax reduction and fee reduction and the gap in infrastructure funds after the implicit debt is curbed. In addition, further structural policies and opening up are also worth looking forward to, if necessary, can form an effective hedge against downward pressure on the economy and changes in the external environment.

  However, even if the easing is overweight, the overall orientation of the current monetary policy is still the camera choice during the observation period.Compared with the pessimistic expectation of diplomatic difficulties at the end of last year, the current economic fundamentals have been stabilized in stages, and many structural policies are expected to gradually show results;

  For A shares, the second round of the "N-shaped" since mid-AprilAfter the valuation repair came to an end, it returned to the fundamentals. The adjustment in the first half of May was a continuation since mid-April.At the molecular end, the fundamentals are expected to face a second correction; the denominator end, risk appetite continues to be suppressed, but the probability of economic data is gradually reduced to increase the probability of policy overwriting, superimposing the expectations of the board and structural reforms,attentionAfter the end of May, there may be an opportunity to re-evaluate the valuation, and it is expected to return to the main line of growth of the science and technology.The current position is optimistic about the market direction and the position is cautious; in the environment where the market adjusts the demand and the external height is uncertain, the short-term optimismPerformanceRobust core assets; closely observe expected corrections to fundamentals and policy.

  forinterest ratedebtWe pointed out in the April 23 report: "The more uncomfortable stage may have come to an end, and many short-term negatives are basically exhausted; after a large adjustment, the short-term transaction value, if there is an expected correction in May,interest rateThere is still room for down." For the moment, AprilPPIAfter the high, the stage highs have passed, and the next high point may be in the fourth quarter. The core inflationary pressures that are highly correlated with the PPI are not large; the market sentiment is again under pressure to superimpose monetary policy and increase interest rate debts.Therefore, after the short-term negative concentration is released, with the second correction of fundamentals and policy expectations, interest rate bonds still have transaction value.However, it is necessary to be alert to the impact of the supply of interest rates on local debt, political bonds, and other interest-bearing bonds after generalized fiscal plus, and food.CPIFaster than expected.

(Article Source:Tianfeng Securities)

                (Editor: DF078)

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