The three major stock indexes of A-shares rose sharply today. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up nearly 2%, regaining the 2,900-point integer mark. The combined turnover of the two cities was more than 500 billion yuan. The industry sector was almost all online, and the wine sector led the gains. For the market outlook, we have summarized the views of major institutions and famous investors for reference.
Withstood the recent multiple bearish and news side effects, the broader market went out of the shock pattern, and the negative trend was a strong signal, especially in the case of a net outflow of funds of 10.9 billion yuan in the north, which was the second largest single-day net outflow of northbound funds since the opening. The last time the net outflow of Northbound funds exceeded RMB 10 billion on March 25, and the net outflow of the day was 10.7 billion yuan. On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 2%.
The A-share internationalization process went further, in the early morning of May 14AlumThe company (MSCI) announced that it will increase the factor of China's large-cap A-shares in the index from 5% to 10%. 26 China A-shares will be included in the MSCI China Index, 18 of which are GEM constituents. A number of fund managers pointed out that MSCI was first transferred to the GEM, and the valuation of growth stocks is expected to be in line with the international valuation system.
Since the end of April, A shares have experienced a sharp fall. On the 13th, US stocks and global stock markets plummeted, but A-shares still out of the stable market in the whole day, and the market outlook of A-shares has received much attention from the market. Brokers Chinese reporters interviewed 10 billion private placements such as Xingshi, Kaifeng, and Yuanle, and they are optimistic about A-shares. They believe that the adjustment of A-shares is limited. As the profitability of enterprises increases, the probability of future growth will rise.
“There has been a lot of twists and turns in the external environment in the near future, but there is a lot of room for domestic policy adjustment, so there is no need to worry too much about the fundamentals, and there is no need to panic too much.” When talking about how to look at the recent market fundamentals and A-share trends, the interviewed a mainstreamInsuranceThe head of the institutional equity investment firmly stated to the reporter. "We internally believe that the Shanghai Composite Index has strong support at 2800. Therefore, when the Shanghai Composite Index falls near this point, we are ready to shoot." A large ShanghaiInsuranceThe attitude of the institution's equity investment manager is very clear. "We will prioritize the allocation of quality stocks with PB between 1 and 2 times."
Investors are advised not to blindly panic and cut meat. They can choose high-quality targets to gradually build positions. In terms of sectors, investors are advised to pay attention to the printed circuit board industry upstream of 5G. With the high probability of laying the base station, the first benefit will be benefited, and the performance in the first quarter of this year will generally increase. In the whole year, it is expected to maintain high growth. Recently, the market has experienced a large decline. Investors can focus on the targets with low valuation, good expectations and depreciation.
In 2019, continue to pay attention to the four major expectations: Where does the money come from? - Change the "game" rules, pay attention to the transformation of the domestic currency derivation mechanism, and possibly the central plus leverage; where does the money go? - the new economy in the breeding, attentionNew baseConstruction, hard technology & intellectual property capitalization (more research and development, more patents, more property rights companies); reform to find vitality? ——Three directions that can be expected, pay attention to the reform of state-owned enterprises, structural reform of financial supply side, and land reform; who will implement it? —— The enthusiasm of all parties has increased, focusing on “forced pressure”, off-balance sheet financing trends, PPP progress, and infrastructure orders.
While the positive counter-cyclical policy has brought economic toughness beyond expectations, it has also raised concerns about the downward pressure on the economy due to insufficient policy space. We measured the use of conventional fiscal and monetary policies in January-April and the overall space for the whole year. The results showed that fiscal expenditure and currency supply converge in April after the acceleration in the first quarter. There must be some space for force; there is limited space for the follow-up of the monetary policy, but there is room for improvement at the structural level.
Affected by the use of other currency instruments such as TMLF and directional RRR, the central bank will restart the MLF operation from 2019 to April 16 and continue to renew in April and May. The MLF may return to normal. Previously, the central bank's four MLF expirations since 2019 were sequels, and the market once had a voice to discuss whether the central bank would use other currency instruments instead of MLF.
Since last year, high-level officials have frequently mentioned state-owned enterprise reforms in various occasions. Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council, served as the leader of the State-owned Enterprise Reform Leading Group and put forward the 16-character policy of “improving governance, strengthening incentives, highlighting the main business, and improving efficiency”; Xiao Yaqing, director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said on many occasions that “the mixed ownership reform is An important breakthrough in reform; Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stressed at the press conference of the 19th and the two sessions that in 19 years, the fourth batch of more than 100 pilot reforms will be launched. At the same time, relevant documents on state-owned enterprise reforms were also released intensively. The Decree No. 36 of May last year clarified the basis for the transfer of state-owned shareholders and the transfer of equity of listed companies; the National Development No. 23 document in July last year clarified the functional positioning and governance structure of the two types of pilot companies; Order No. 40 clarifies the principles to be followed in the assessment of the performance of the heads of central enterprises.
The proportion of financial assets investment has been higher. 28 listingsbankAs of 19Q1, the investment accounted for 29.2% of the total assets; among them, the city commercial banks/agricultural commercial banks/share banks were as high as 43.3%/35.3%/31.3% respectively; in the stock market, Xingye, most listed city commercial banks, the proportion of investment has been Close to or even exceed the loan, only risk classification of the loan, is not enough to grasp the overall credit risk. The tightening of risk identification is the current trend. Listed at the end of 18 yearsbankThe degree of bad deviation has almost dropped to less than 100%; in April 19, the China Securities Journal reported that some local authorities encouraged the inclusion of over 60 days of overdue. In the previous 17 years of the Basel Committee's "Prudent Handling of Assets Guidelines", China's financial asset risk classification needs to be in line with international standards.
Since the beginning of 2019, the US dollar debt of housing companies has performed strongly, and the total return index has outperformed the market average. According to Bloomberg statistics, from the beginning of 2019 to May 6, the issuance of US dollar debt was RMB 38.185 billion, which was 72.85% of the annual issuance in 2018. According to the iBoxx return index, from the beginning of 2019 to May 6, the return on the US dollar debt of the real estate enterprise reached 7.72%, which was higher than the return rate of the Chinese dollar debt of 4.91%.
From the perspective of trade balance and current account balance, the current trade balance is shrinking, and the current account balance has increased but it is difficult to sustain. Lu Yingtong recently showed a continuous net outflow trend, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated or increased.bankThe difference between the settlement and sale of foreign exchanges narrowed in March compared with that in February. In view of the trend of the RMB exchange rate from the beginning of 2018 to the present, the exchange rate fluctuations are deepening. It is expected that the future trend of the US dollar will not be strong, and the staged weakening of the RMB will basically come to an end. 7.0 is still at the top of the RMB exchange rate. From the perspective of stock exchange, we believe that market expectations have been reflected in the price. In summary, we believe that the 10-year government bond interest rate will fluctuate within the range of 3.2% to 3.6%, and will fall back to the lower limit under the influence of external factors.
(Article Source:Oriental wealthSecurities Research Institute)