May 15th news,recently,Agricultural productsPlate hotspots are frequent,appleRed datesFutures have fluctuated drastically.appleFutures main contract was once daily limit at the end of the day, red date futuresIt has risen more than 10% in three trading days. forapplefutures,Analysts pointed out that short-term weather speculation dominatesappleIn the futures market, under the current situation of tight fundamentals, the short-term price increase is expected to remain unchanged, and attention can be paid to the performance of futures and related concept stocks.
As of the close of the day,appleThe main contract rose 5.13% to 9218 yuan, and the main contract of the red date futures rose 2.49% to 9660 yuan.
Last year, with a 40% increase, it led the domestic commodity futures market.appleFutures, as prices have gradually increased in the near future, have once again become the focus of funding. In the spot market,applePrices have also risen to a high level in a decade. In addition, some fruit concept stocks have also risen sharply in the near future.
Analysts pointed out that short-term weather speculation dominatesappleIn the futures market, under the current situation of tight fundamentals, the short-term price increase is expected to remain unchanged, and attention can be paid to the performance of futures and related concept stocks.
"fruit stand" with doubled value
As the temperature rises, so does the number of consumers on the fruit side. However, the price of fruit from many people in the recent past has risen sharply. Some netizens said that "this year's fruit can't afford it, it's too expensive.appleThe price is catching up with pork, which is twice as expensive as in previous years. I want to open a fruit shop. ”
According to the China Securities Journal reporter, since March, the fruit value of the Beijing Xinfadi fruit wholesale market has been rising. Not only commonapplePears, other fruits such as citrus, kiwi and so on have also continued to rise. The reporter visited in the supermarket market and found that in the fruit area, some consumersappleAlways "take it up and put it down."
A supermarket shopping guide said that the price of fruit this year has increased by 70% to 80%. Especially after the May 1 holiday, the weather is heating up, the demand for fruits is also increasing, and the price is continuing to rise.
Not only a "fruit stand"appleIt has become more expensive. Recently, the concept of stocks in the stock and commodity markets has also been on fire, and the price of related targets has increased significantly.
Wenhua Finance statistics show thatappleThe futures 1905 contract has increased by 18.92% since the beginning of the year. As of Monday, Zheng Shang OfficeappleThe futures index closed up for four consecutive trading days, and the trading volume remained at the level of 300,000-400,000 hand highs, and the position increased to 260,000 hands. last yearappleIn the unilateral market of rising futures, the index's turnover and position peaks were above 6 million hands and 1 million hands respectively.
At the same time, the A-share fruit concept stocks also rose against the trend recently, as of yesterday's close,Honghui Fruit and VegetableThe company has closed for 7 consecutive trading days, and this year the stock has increased by 47.4%. In addition,LangyuanThe pattern of rising since this year is obvious. The cumulative increase of this stock has reached 67.95% this year. It is worth noting that in the market consolidation market yesterday, the two stocks rose more than 5% in the day.
"Since 2018appleSince the production cut,appleThe market has been in good shape and prices have been rising. From the fall acquisition period in 2018, the mainstream transaction price of the first and second grades of goods above 80# in Yantai area was about 4.0 yuan/kg, and then the price continued to show new highs. As of May 1, 2019, the mainstream price of cold storage reached 6.3-6.5 yuan/ jin. "Zhuo Chuang Information related agricultural research pointed out.
this yearappleIs the logic behind price increases similar to last year?
Yi Le analysis of the general manager of the German futures fresh food business unit, recentlyappleThe main reason for the continued rise in futures contracts is mainly due to the continuous increase in the spot price of delivery standards to around 6.8 yuan/jin, and the recent situation of fruit set in Shandong and Shaanxi is generally the same as the normal season in the new season. On this basis, the price of the new season is generally expected. Raise, the main contract naturally rises. Last year, the main reason was the sharp rise caused by the decline in production caused by the frost factor.
Whether the uptrend can continue
From the market transaction situation, ChinaappleAccording to the network information, the merchants in the Qixia production area in Shandong continued to replenish the goods as needed, and the enthusiasm for getting the goods was acceptable. The overall transaction was slightly stable; the overall transaction in Shaanxi Luochuan production area was normal, and the merchants were able to follow up with a small amount of goods as needed, but the source of supply Difficult to find, the transaction price of the production area maintained a strong trend.
Insiders pointed out that recentlyappleThe sales volume in the sales area was stable, the price was stable and the market was accepting high prices. The inventory in the production area is limited, the price of goods in the warehouse is strong, the fruit and vegetable goods are basically closed, the inventory price is higher, the shipment volume has slowed down, but the price remains high.
According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, as of May 9, ShandongappleThe storage area ratio was 19.9%, which was 4.2% in half a month, and the storage ratio in Shaanxi was 5.6%, which was 2.3% in half a month.
Wei Hong futures analysts Wei Hongjie and Sun Shaokun analyzed that the weather in the production areas has been normal in the near future. The current production area has entered the fruit setting period. The specific fruit setting is different. However, from the recent fruit survey, the output is expected to be normal or low this year. After the bag is completed, it is determined. There is support under the main contract, and there is still a lot of enthusiasm. In the short term, it is still strong. Waiting for the final bagging situation, the fundamentals can be hyped up in the late stage.
Founder's medium-term futures analyst Hou Zhifang said that as far as the 1907 contract is concerned, the supply in the production area will boost the spot price while supporting the futures price. The short-term price will continue to be stronger due to the spot price, but as the spot price rises, the production will increase. The district supply and demand game will also be intensified, and the 1907 contract will be maintained first and then judged. From the 1910 and beyond, the new seasonappleFully entering the flowering season, the weather in the production area has increased the interference with the market, but no factors that can have a significant impact on production have been seen, and the increase in the price is limited.
Concept stocks are boosted
appleThe spot market has been volatile for a long time. According to industry insiders,appleAnnual production and annual sales, price fluctuations haveAgricultural productsThe general seasonal characteristics, between 2010 and 2016, the annual average price fluctuations are 125%, the largest reached 196%. This shows thatappleThe price elasticity is relatively large, and the relevant stock and futures targets will also be affected.
“Generally,appleThe market is still relatively stable. There are many trending long-term market conditions. The spot price is continuously rising due to short supply. The seasonal fluctuation is not enough to last for one year. In the case of short supply, the weather factor is dominant, and the weather leads to a large decrease in output. The decline is limited,appleIt is a crop variety that is produced one year and one season. Once the output is reduced, it cannot be remedied, and only the price will rise. "Yile said.
From the perspective of A shares, it is understood that A-share listed companiesLangyuanMainly engaged in the management, processing, warehousing and sales of fresh fruit and dried fruit. The main products are fresh.appleAnd raisins, the export volume ranked first in the country. The company was designated by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange asappleFutures delivery warehouse. The stock andappleFutures movements have the highest correlation.
In addition,appleBehind the price increase, the entire fruit concept has also received funding attention. This fromHonghui Fruit and VegetableThe recent trend is evident. It is understood that the company mainly operates fruit and vegetable products from plantation management, post-harvest acquisition to cold chain distribution. Its main products include about dozens of fruits and vegetables.
Industry analysts pointed out thatappleAs one of the fruits with the largest output and sales volume, its price fluctuations have a significant boost to other fruit prices. According to the April CPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of fresh fruit rose by 11.9%, which affected the CPI by about 0.22 percentage points. Therefore, the fruit concept as a whole is also subject toappleThe price increase boosted.
It is worth mentioning that some investors said that if the market outlookappleWhen the fruit futures traded and the positions increased, the A-share “futures concept” in the market may also be boosted. In 2018,appleThe rise in futures market once led to a wave of rising prices in this concept.
(Article Source:Oriental wealthSecurities Research Institute)