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A shares with the strength to crush the US stocks "5·19 market" can reproduce?

May 15, 2019 19:57
source: First finance

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[A shares rely on strength to crush US stocks "5·19 market" can reproduce? After a rapid decline of more than three weeks, today's A shares ushered in a sharp rise. The major indices showed a unilateral upward trend after the gap opened higher. The "5·19 market" has passed for 20 years. In the current global round of scientific and technological revolution, when the Internet of Things technology is about to usher in an outbreak, will the market generate another round of bull market?

K map 000001_1

After more than three weeks of rapid decline, today's A shares ushered in a sharp rise. The major indices showed a unilateral upward trend after the gap opened higher.

The Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.66% higher today. In the morning, it maintained a sideways volatility. It started to pull up in the afternoon, and the increase once exceeded 2%, and it had a 2950-point impact. After a slight correction in the late session, it eventually closed up 1.91%.

Shanghai index today trend

The Shenzhen Component Index is more strong. After nearly 1% higher, it maintained its unilateral upward trend throughout the day, closing up by 2.44% and standing on the long-lost 10-day moving average.

Deep into the Japanese K line

From the perspective of the sector, public transportation, winemaking,food and drink,papermaking,Culture and educationThe sectors were among the top gainers, with the sector gaining more than 3.5% and no downside today. The aviation sector with the lowest increase also achieved a 0.86% increase.

Sector increase list

In addition, the top-ranking winemakers achieved a net inflow of 2.264 billion yuan throughout the day, ranking first among all sectors. andCommunications industryThe outflow of funds from the sector ranks first in all sectors.

In terms of the number of ups and downs, among the 3,602 stocks in the two cities, 3,392 stocks have risen today, accounting for 94%, and only 164 stocks fell. Among them, the number of daily limit stocks was 114, accounting for 3.16%, while the average number of stocks was only 16. In terms of ups and downs, stocks with a gain of 0-3% accounted for the highest proportion, close to three-quarters of the total stock.

The number of stocks in the two cities rose and fell

In terms of energy consumption, the turnover of the two cities today totaled 512.8 billion yuan, and the amount of energy was not effectively released. However, it is worth noting that from the 30-minute K-line chart, the first 30 minutes of today's opening can be lower, creating the second lowest record since February 21 (the lowest record is May 9), and it is in full The proportion of the amount of energy is obviously low.During the opening period, investors showed sufficient confidence in today's rise and market differences were small.However, the volume of the last 30 minutes before the close was the second highest since April 29 (the highest record was May 10), and the proportion of the total amount of energy in the whole day was also high.It shows that investors are still more cautious, do not dare to easily hold positions overnight, have chosen to sell in the end to avoid risk events that may occur during the external trading.

Shanghai index 30 minutes K line

In the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the northbound funds were more cautious in early trading today, showing a small net outflow. However, as the market strengthened in the afternoon, the northward funds returned, and the net inflow of nearly 1.3 billion yuan was achieved throughout the day, becoming the first since May. A trading day that achieves a net inflow of funds to the North.

  Panic dissipated

After a few days of rapid decline, the global market has basically digested the previous negative, and the panic has been fully released. US stocks performed strongly last night, ending the previous consecutive decline. The three major stock indexes once rose more than 1%. At the close, the Dow rose 0.82%, the S&P rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.14%. The safe-haven assets gold fell yesterday.

In addition, the VIX index, which measures investor panic, fell 7.73% yesterday, erasing half of the previous day's gains.

VIX index

In fact, in the morning session, the worse-than-expected economic data once caused A shares to dive.

China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year in April, much lower than the expected 6.5% and 8.5% last month. In addition, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April was also lower than expected and last month's data, and the lowest since May 2003. The Bureau of Statistics explained that due to the downward adjustment of the value-added tax in April, many companies carried out pre-stocking and accelerated production in March in order to enjoy preferential policies, which led to a slight decline in data in April. From the cumulative data from January to April, the growth rate this year is higher than the growth rate in the same period last year.

After the release of the Bureau of Statistics, market doubts dissipated and A-shares continued to rise.

  Many institutions see more

On the occasion of a sharp adjustment in the stock market,GoldmanGao Tiaofa claimed to firmly look at more A shares. Management scale reached 1.4 trillion US dollarsGoldmanAsset management said that it has increased its holdings of Chinese stocks in the recent stock market adjustment.GoldmanAsset management said that the place that should be invested now is emerging markets such as China.

apart fromGoldmanIn addition, Robeco, a well-known European investment management company, is also buying on dips while waiting for the market to calm down.

  CICCIt said that in the context of fine-tuning of the policy tone and significant correction of market valuation, the future market growth will slow down. However, considering that the overall valuation is still not expensive, and earnings expectations may be restored, investors should not be overly pessimistic about the market prospects. Structural opportunities still exist. They can absorb high-quality faucets that reflect the trend of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. .

  CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that after the first round of gains, the overall valuation of A-shares has been repaired from a low level to a near-average. Unlike the first round of rapid inflation, where the risk appetite rebounded and the rapid inflow of funds drove the A-share valuation, the second round of upside was limited by the expected improvement in earnings and the size of the incremental funds. The second round of the rise is expected to last longer, but the pace of the rise is likely to slow down significantly.

In addition, just before the A share continued to plunge, the internationally renowned index companyAlumThe company (MSCI) announced that it will increase the factor of China's large-cap A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 5% to 10%, and the adjustment will take effect after the close on May 28.

  CITIC Construction InvestmentSecurities research found that the expansion of MSCI this time will bring incremental funds of 17.27 billion US dollars (about 115.6 billion yuan). That is to say, two weeks later, as MSCI doubles the inclusion factor of A shares, there will be more than 100 billion incremental funds to enter the A-share market.

  "5·19th market" 20th anniversary

The old investors in the A-share market are sure to remember the “5·19 market”. Twenty years ago, on May 19, 1999, under the stimulus of the policy, the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 60% in just over a month, becoming a good memory for the old investors.

In April 1999, as China and the United States progressed smoothly on the negotiation of the WTO agreement, the United States suddenly began to exert extreme pressure on China due to the pressure of the internal party game. Since then, A shares quickly closed a few long Yinxian, in a short period of time, the Shanghai index fell more than 10%.

Since May 19, 1999, driven by intensive favorable policies, the A-share market has entered a rapidly rising bull market. In just over a month, the Shanghai Composite Index quickly rose from 1058 points to 1756 points, an increase of nearly 700. point. It was at the time of the first round of Internet technology explosion. After a period of callbacks, A shares were driven by network technology stocks, and the market continued to rise strongly. Finally, it rose to 2245 points in June 2001, and went out of a big bull market for two years. The stock index rose more than 100%. .

The "5·19 market" has passed for 20 years. In the current global round of scientific and technological revolution, when the Internet of Things technology is about to usher in an outbreak, will the market generate another round of bull market?

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(Article source: First Finance)

                (Editor: DF142)

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