The overall performance of the commodity market is not good,Agricultural productsFutures have become a rare bright color in the recent market.
Among them, the most striking thing isappleFutures and red dates futures ushered in a round of sharp rises. At the end of the day,appleFutures once touched the daily limit, and the red dates futures rose by nearly 5%.
Since May, just 8 trading days,appleThe main contract AP1910 has increased by 13.44%; the red jujube futures have risen faster, rising by 10.6% in three days. For investors who are on the market, it is quite rewarding. What triggered it?appleAnd the rise of red dates?
However,Agricultural productsThere are also varieties that are not well realized. On May 13 and May 14, cotton futures fell for two consecutive days, causing huge market attention.
A notable sign is that the overall volatility of the commodity market has increased recently. In particular, some varieties have experienced large fluctuations, which has also caused close attention of exchanges.
Yesterday, Zhengshang issued a risk warning letter saying that the futures prices of cotton, cotton yarn, red dates and PTA have fluctuated greatly, and there are many market uncertainties. Futures companies and investors are concerned about risks.
appleFutures hit the daily limit, red dates rose 10% in three days
Recently, the most eye-catching variety of the futures market is non-appleThe two brothers with the red dates are none other than.
First lookapple,todayappleDriven by the logic of production cuts, the AP1910, the main contract of the late session, hit a daily limit and closed up 5.13% to 9,218 yuan/ton.
It is worth noting that from May to now, just 8 trading days,appleThe main contract AP1910 has increased by 13.44%, becoming the most powerful market in the near future.
South China Futures analyst Bian Shuyang said,appleCurrently in the fruiting period, there have been a number of research groups visiting the production area recently. Some of the latest research shows thatappleThe major producing areas have different degrees of production reduction compared to 2017, mainly due to some areas.appleInsufficient flower pollination. However, the final production situation still depends on bagging, and the current hype atmosphere is far more intense than the actual situation.
“It’s easy to see a reduction in production when the survey is compared to 2017, and if it is compared to 2018, it will increase production.” Bian Shuyang said.
For the market outlook, CITIC Futures analysis, although there are currentlyappleRumors of extreme weather, but last yearappleProduction cuts, this yearappleHigh yield is expected to be strong, expectedappleThere is limited room for futures prices to rise.
However, some analysts believe that in the case of uncertain production, it is not excluded that there may be a continuous rise.
Looking at the red jujube futures, it broke through the 9800 yuan/ton mark at the end of the day, and it rose nearly 5%, but the market closed down. It is worth noting that the recent red jujube futures ushered in a round of rapid rise, with a three-day increase of 10.6%.
Under the hot market, the red date futures also triggered a rapid inflow of funds, and the volume of transactions quickly expanded.
On May 14th, the trading volume of the main contract of red dates futures in 1912 reached 1.42 million hands; on May 15, the trading volume of red dates futures exceeded 1 million hands again, reaching 1.2 million hands. At the same time, the 1912 contract position also rose to 112,000 hands.
In the view of Bian Shuyang, the red dates have followed much today.appleThe upward trend, while the intraday volatility, also showed the instability of funds, and more speculative funds.
"The yield of jujube next year is still unclear, but according to the characteristics of jujube crops, there is a possibility that there will be a small increase in production next year. However, the current market is mainly concerned with the delivery logic. The delivery is roughly in the range of 10,000-11,000 to cover the cost, so the red dates are still Continue to drive the momentum." Bian Shuyang said.
Some analysts also said that red dates are a variety that is almost unaffected by external import and export factors. After a brief decline after listing, they have recently been quickly pulled up to the 9800 line. At present, there are few new orders and no warehouse receipts. Factors such as pressure, warehouse receipt cost and futures price discount are still applied to the market, but because it is a new type of work, there are more variables during the period. It is expected that after the current price is fitted, the normal operation may be larger.
The fluctuation of some varieties has increased, and the exchange issued a risk letter.
However, the recent large fluctuations in some varieties have also led to close attention of the exchange.
Yesterday, Zhengshang issued a risk warning letter saying that recent cotton, cotton yarn, red dates and PTA futures prices fluctuated greatly, and there were many market uncertainties. Members should be encouraged to strengthen investor education and risk prevention work. Investors operate cautiously and invest rationally.
On May 13 and May 14, domestic cotton futures continued to fall for two consecutive times, causing huge market concern. While cotton fell, the cotton yarn futures also followed the down limit.
In addition, PTA futures also experienced a sharp decline in the recent market, the main contract 1909 fell 3.67% yesterday, the previous trading day fell 2%, the total fell 5.67% in two days.
Industry analysts said that the overall volatility of the commodity market has increased recently. Today, the commodity sector's gains almost completely cover yesterday's decline. Although the Wenhua Index, which reflects the overall trend of commodities, cannot be said to have reversed, the technical indicators show signs of stabilization and the probability of maintaining stability in the later period. Larger.There are three main factors:
First, the previous major plunge was mainly affected by some unexpected factors, and the changes in the basic supply and demand pattern of domestic commodities in various industries were not as great as those reflected in the disk changes. Moreover, when the relevant parties took counter-measures, the market gave confidence and expectation for the possible measures to be introduced later, and the market quickly stabilized and rebounded.
Second, a number of economic data released today, the domestic economy is generally stable and upward signs, adding confidence to the market.
Third, some commodities have fallen excessively. The discount rate of futures prices far exceeds the cost and expectations. The basis deviation rate is too large and has the technical demand for return.
(Article source: brokerage China)