After a brief downturn during the Spring Festival,real estateThe market has once again warmed up significantly, and has driven many indicators to perform better.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 15, the sales area of commercial housing in the country from January to April this year was 42.85 million square meters, which was only 0.3% lower than the peak of the same period last year. Among them, the sales scale in March and April were higher than the same period of last year, indicating that the strength of this round of rebound should not be underestimated.
As the absolute sales scale is still at a high level, and the financing gate is wide open, the investment confidence of the housing enterprises has recovered. Last Aprilreal estateDevelopment investment grew at a rate of 11.9% year-on-year, the highest in the past four years. At the same time, the first- and second-tier cities have once again experienced land grabbing, and some cities have also brushed out regional “land kings”.
However, if the long-term cycle is taken, the judgment of the “downstream period” is still the current market consensus. Since April, both the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the National Development and Reform Commission and other central regulatory departments, as well as some local governments, have responded quickly to market changes, reflecting that the swords of regulation are still high.
Therefore, this round of the market has certainly given the housing enterprises a breathing space, but the real pressure is probably still behind.
The Midwest is still the "main force" of the market
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first four months of this year, the sales of commercial housing in the country was 3.9141 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. The sales area of commercial housing was 42.85 million square meters, down 0.3% year-on-year, and the decline was narrowed by 0.6 percentage points.
Due to the market downturn during the Spring Festival, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in the country has been lower than that of the same period of the previous year since 2019. However, as the market has improved in the last two months, this gap has been negligible in the first four months of this year. Considering that the sales volume in the first four months of last year hit a record high in the same period of the previous year, the absolute scale of sales this year is still not to be ignored.
Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yiju Research Institute, believes that seasonal and policy factors are worthy of attention. On the one hand, the accumulated demand for the Spring Festival holiday was released in March and April; on the other hand, the second-tier cities introduced the new policy, and the interest rate on mortgage loans declined, stimulating market demand.
In addition, the recent market recovery is also due to the property market last year. “Although the scale of the shed has shrunk, the sales scale of the third- and fourth-tier cities will not drop so quickly, and the sales scale of some second-tier cities has increased.”
In terms of regions, the sales area in the eastern region and the northeast region decreased in the first four months, and the sales area in the central region and the western region continued to grow. This pattern is consistent with the performance of the past year.
For the housing enterprises, the direct benefit of the sales increase is the improvement of cash flow. In the first four months, the “deposit and advance receipts” and “personal mortgage loans” of the housing enterprises increased by 15.1% and 12.4% respectively. Coupled with the opening of the financing gates since the end of last year, the current growth rate of housing funds in the housing sector is 8.9%, reaching the best level in the past 20 months.
Affected by this, the confidence of the investment side has also been restored. Last Aprilreal estateDevelopment investment grew at a rate of 11.9% year-on-year, the highest in the past four years. Simultaneously,real estateThe construction area of the enterprise and the growth rate of new construction area have all increased.
Although sales have grown negatively, but this year,real estateInvestment growth has always remained at a high level of over 11%. Most analysts believe that this is because under the continuous high turnover, the effective inventory of housing enterprises is insufficient, and the pace of land acquisition, construction and construction must be accelerated.
However, the data changes in the land acquisition were slightly unexpected. In the first four months, the land acquisition and land transaction price of the real estate enterprises fell by more than 33%, which seems to be inconsistent with the intuitive feeling.
Yan Yuejin believes that this is because the land acquisition of enterprises is mainly concentrated in the first- and second-tier cities, and the scale of land transactions in the third- and fourth-tier cities has dropped significantly. In addition, the rhythm of land supply at the beginning of the year is usually slow, and there is a certain contrast with the urgent needs of real estate enterprises. Therefore, the warming of this round of land market is “regional and seasonal”.
Regulating pressure is coming again
The relevant person in charge of a well-known housing company Fuzhou Company told the 21st Century Business Report that his recent work status is “to do marketing programs and to open the market according to the rhythm; while preparing bidding materials, complete the land acquisition task as soon as possible”. Due to the recent market peak season, his work is far more intense than the "996".
This rhythm is very representative of the general state of housing in March and April. However, the reason for accelerating production and sales in the first half of the year is that companies are not optimistic about the future. The person said that the sales focus of regional companies was arranged in the first half of the year, and the land acquisition task was also arranged in the first half of the year. This is because, "the judgment of the headquarters is that in the second half of the year, the house will not be sold well, and the land is even worse. ".
Housing companies have a clear understanding of market trends. According to an interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald, practitioners generally believe that the market will inevitably fall as the sales scale rises for two consecutive years and the regulatory policies are not loosened.
In fact, recent market changes have already attracted policy pressure.
On April 19th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to emphasize that "we must adhere to the position that the house is used for living, not for speculation, and implement a long-term regulation mechanism for one city, one policy, city policy, and city government responsibility. ".
On the same day, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Council Development Research Center for the first quarter of 2019real estateThe market operation has carried out a special investigation. It is pointed out that the sales of residential houses in some hot cities are picking up and the heat of the land market is picking up, which needs to be highly concerned. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also issued early warning tips for cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter.
Previously, the Ministry of Natural Resources formulated and implemented the classification and control targets for residential land use this year. Cities with a residential digestive cycle of more than 36 months should stop supplying land; the decontamination cycle should be 12-6 months and less than 6 months. Increase or even significantly increase land supply.
On May 6, Chen Yajun, director of the Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, made a statement on the settlement of the New Deal. Relaxing the settlement is not the same as relaxing.real estateRegulation. Regardless of how the household registration system is changed, the positioning of "staying and not speculating" must be adhered to and cannot be shaken.
At the local government level, Changsha, Hefei, Xi'an, Dandong, Suzhou and other places have also been tightened in the near future. Respondents generally believe that there will be more cities in the future to increase regulation.
According to Yan Yuejin's point of view, these signals indicate that the regulatory policy has not been relaxed, and the follow-up motivation of the market rebound remains to be seen.
Zhongtai Securities and Ping An Securities interpreted the property market data in April. Both organizations believe that the recovery of first- and second-tier cities is better than expected, but with the introduction of regulatory policies, the future will stabilize; third- and fourth-tier cities are good. Exhausted, the future faces greater downward pressure.
(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)