Shanghai indexToday swept away, unilaterally up throughout the day, closing up more than 2%, regaining 2800 points;GEMIt soared 4%, regained 1600 points, and created the largest one-day gain in more than two years. For the trend of the market outlook, Oriental Fortune Network has summarized the views of major institutions and famous investors for reference.
In recent days, the A-share market has obviously weakened, the external situation has become increasingly severe, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has increased, and pessimism has overshadowed the market. This is an inevitable pain in the deleveraging process. However, the market should have a more sober understanding of the internal and external situations. The current Chinese economy still maintains a stable growth trend. Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend, and the long-term good fundamentals of the A-share market remain firm.
The recent A-share market has experienced fierce fluctuations, and investor risk preferences have declined rapidly. Trade frictions in the external markets have led to an increase in market volatility, and the exposure of credit risk in previous periods has led investors to fear that economic fundamentals may be revised downwards. From the retrospective history, the impact of trade friction on A-shares is reflected in the short-term, while the long-term trend of A-shares still depends on the match between the profit direction of the capital market and its valuation. On the other hand, the partial exposure of credit risk is a necessary part of the financial deleveraging process, and it is also the only way to benefit the long-term healthy development of the credit market.
From a macro perspective, the Chinese government unwaveringly advances supply-side reforms, and firmly upholds the national strategy of transforming core technologies through independent innovation, realizing the upgrading of the country’s industrial structure, and transforming innovation-driven high-quality economic growth. Under such a strategic orientation, we should have firm confidence in the A-share market related to economic restructuring, especially those high-quality and innovative leading companies with huge market prospects, excellent management and reasonable valuation after the current round of decline. Will usher in an excellent buying point.
On the whole, the two cities continued to adjust their trend and continued to hit a new low after the new low. The market confidence was seriously insufficient. Since June, the controlling shareholders of the listed companies of the A-share market have collectively increased their holdings. The net increase in holdings has exceeded 100 million yuan. More than ten. Some market analysis believes that it is no coincidence that capital increase and company repurchase events are concentrated. As the most sensitive indicator, industrial capital often dares to operate when other investors are most panicked. It understands the future trend of A shares and the company’s performance for investors. Expected judgments have high reference value. Under the background of overall macroeconomic conditions, individual stocks held by industrial capital under the support of low valuation and excellent performance, the value of investment after short-term correction has become more prominent.
From the short-term perspective, there is no significant increase this month, but the monthly line is still a big negative line. There is no major change in the fundamental situation is mainly due to some external factors and market rumors, resulting in participants holding confidence Frustrated, we believe that although the probability of a complete reversal of the current remarks is not large, stocks of value-added stocks that have been mistakenly slumped after falling sharply may rebound next month. The style of high uncertainty in the shell stocks junk stocks will gradually change to For a mature market style with a certain premium of premium, investors need to pay attention.
The short-term rumors bottomed out and the oversold bounce that the market once hoped for did not come on schedule. The institutions that rebounded after improving liquidity in July and August were not optimistic and considered that the margin was limited. This week's continuous downturn has made many institutions more pessimistic, more products approaching balance, and institutional funds continuing to drain. However, in terms of the annual point of view, it is already in a relatively safe range. Many emerging industry companies can consider the layout.
Every downturn in the economy has stimulated property. Since the beginning of the year, the downward pressure on the economy has increased. In April, the Politburo resumed the expansion of domestic demand, and local governments introduced “rushing people” policies, and even targeted slashing of small and micro enterprises. All of them were mistakenly read as releasing water to stimulate property. However, seven ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently launched a special campaign to rectify chaos in the real estate market in 30 cities, which means that the real estate control policy is only tight. Mortgageinterest rateAgainst the backdrop of continued upward growth, the rebound in property sales is doomed to be short-lived. At the same time, the growth rate of industrial income in May has been significantly reduced since the price factor was eliminated, implying that the demand for terminals in the early period has been cold and has been transmitted to the upper and middle reaches.
As a whole, after suspending the countercyclical factor in the mid-price quotation, the RMB exchange rate in the first half of 2018 presented a two-way volatility under the two factors of the basket exchange rate trend and foreign exchange market supply and demand. Among them, the strength of the exchange rate changes more determined by the trend of the basket of currencies represented by the US dollar index; and according to the Wind effective exchange rate index, the RMB effective exchange rate has appreciated by more than 2.5% since the beginning of the year, which is shown by the strength of market supply and demand. The RMB exchange rate is generally stronger in the first half of the year.
|Fund code||Fund abbreviation||Nearly two years of revenue||Fees||operating|
|110003||Yi Fangda Shanghai 50 Index A||39.91%||1.50% 0.15%||buy Open an account to buy|
|310398||SWS CSI 300 Value Index||35.03%||1.20% 0.12%||buy Open an account to buy|
|519671||Galaxy Hushen 300 Value||34.46%||1.20% 0.12%||buy Open an account to buy|
|000311||Invesco Great Wall CSI 300 Enhanced||31.44%||1.20% 0.12%||buy Open an account to buy|