Shanghai indexToday's sweeping momentum, unilateral upwards throughout the day, closing up more than 2%, regaining the 2800 mark;GEMSoaring 4%, regaining the 1600-point mark, creating the biggest one-day gain in more than two years. For the trend of the market outlook, Oriental Fortune Network has aggregated the views of major institutions and famous investors for reference.
Recently, the A-share market has clearly weakened, the external situation has become increasingly severe, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate has increased, and pessimism has shrouded the market. This is an unavoidable pain in the process of deleveraging. However, the market should have a clearer understanding of the internal and external situation. At present, China's economy is still maintaining a steady growth trend. Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend. The long-term fundamentals of the A-share market remain solid.
Recently, the A-share market has experienced volatility, and investor risk appetite has declined rapidly. Trade frictions in the external markets have led to an increase in market volatility, and the exposure of credit risk in the previous period has led investors to worry that the economic fundamentals may be revised downwards. From the retrospective history, the impact of trade friction on A-shares is more reflected in the short-term, and the long-term trend of A-shares still depends on the matching of the profit direction of the capital market and valuation. On the other hand, the partial exposure of credit risk is an inevitable part of the process of financial deleveraging, and it is also the only way to benefit the long-term healthy development of the credit market.
From a macro perspective, the Chinese government has unswervingly promoted supply-side reforms, and firmly adheres to the national strategy of transforming core technologies through independent innovation, realizing the upgrading of the country's industrial structure, and transforming into a high-quality economic growth mode driven by innovation. Under such a strategic orientation, we should have firm confidence in the sectors related to economic transformation in the A-share market, especially those high-quality innovative leading companies with huge market prospects, excellent management and reasonable valuations. Will usher in an excellent buying point.
On the whole, the two cities continued to adjust their trends. After the new low, they continued to hit new lows. The market confidence was seriously insufficient. However, since June, the controlling shareholders of listed companies in the A-share market have increased their holdings, and the net increase in holdings has exceeded 100 million yuan. More than ten. According to market analysis, it is not accidental that capital holdings and corporate repurchase events are concentrated. Industrial capital, as the most sensitive wind vane, often dares to operate in the most panic of other investors, and understands the future trend of A shares and company performance for investors. The expected judgments have a high reference value. Under the overall background of the macro economy, the stocks that have been increased by the industrial capital are supported by low valuation and excellent performance, and the investment value after the short-term correction is more prominent.
From the short-term point of view, there is no significant heavy volume this month, but the monthly line still receives a big Yinxian. The fundamentals have not changed greatly. It is mainly affected by some external factors and market rumors, which leads the participants to share the confidence. Frustrated, we believe that although the current probability of a complete reversal is not large, the high-value stocks that have been slain after a sharp decline may rebound in the next month. The style of high uncertainty before the shell stocks will gradually change into For mature markets with certainty and a premium, investors need to focus on it.
In the short-term, it is hard to say that the oversold rebound that the market once expected is not coming as scheduled. It is not optimistic for the rebounding institutions after the improvement of liquidity in July and August, and believes that the scope is limited. The continued downturn this week has made many institutions more pessimistic, more products are close to being strong, and institutional funds continue to flow out. However, in the current year, it is already in a relatively safe range, and many emerging industry companies can consider the layout.
Every round of economic downturn in the past will stimulate real estate. Since the beginning of the year, the downward pressure on the economy has increased. In April, the Politburo meeting revisited the expansion of domestic demand. The “robbing people” policy and the targeted reduction of small and micro enterprises were all misunderstood as re-splitting water to stimulate real estate. However, the recent seven ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Housing and Construction, have launched a special campaign to rectify the real estate market in 30 cities, which means that the real estate control policy is only tight. In mortgageinterest rateIn the context of continued upward movement, the rebound in real estate sales is destined to be short-lived. At the same time, the industrial income growth rate in May after the price factor was removed has dropped significantly, which means that the initial terminal demand is cold and has been transmitted to the middle and upper reaches.
Overall, after the countercyclical factor was suspended in the mid-price quotation, the RMB exchange rate showed a two-way volatility under the two factors of the basket exchange rate trend and the foreign exchange market supply and demand in the first half of 2018. Among them, the exchange rate strength and weakness are more determined by the trend of the basket currency represented by the US dollar index; and according to the Wind effective exchange rate estimation index, the effective exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated more than 2.5% since the beginning of the year, which shows that driven by the supply and demand of the market, The RMB exchange rate was generally strong in the first half of the year.
|Fund code||Fund abbreviation||Income in the past two years||Handling fee||operating|
|110003||E Fund SSE 50 Index A||39.91%||1.50% 0.15%||buy Account opening|
|310398||Shen Wanling letter Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 value index||35.03%||1.20% 0.12%||buy Account opening|
|519671||Galaxy Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 value||34.46%||1.20% 0.12%||buy Account opening|
|000311||Invesco Great Wall Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 enhanced||31.44%||1.20% 0.12%||buy Account opening|