The "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that the local issuance of the local debts in full swing, the release rhythm in October has obviously slowed down. According to China Bond Data, local government bonds issued a total of 405.514 billion yuan in the first 10 months of this year, an increase of 4.74% over the same period of last year; in October, the issuance of local government bonds was 256.031 billion yuan, down 24.71% year-on-year.
Previously, the information released by the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance showed that as of October 18, 2018, local governments issued special bonds of 187.916 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of new special bonds was 1,264.426 billion yuan, accounting for 93.7% of the newly added special debt limit of 1.35 billion yuan; the issuance of special bonds for replacement of 453.603 billion yuan (displacement of special debts); refinancing special bonds of 98.497 billion yuan. Judging from the current situation, the amount of new special debts for 2018 is nearing completion.
Local bond issuance trend is slowing down
Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Maintaining the Shortcomings in the Infrastructure Sector" (hereinafter referred to as "Guiding Opinions"). The "Guidance Opinions" clarify that it is necessary to focus on short-term areas such as poverty alleviation, railways, highways, waterways, airports, water conservancy, energy, agriculture and rural areas, ecological and environmental protection, and social and people's livelihood, and accelerate the promotion of major projects that have been included in the plan.
In strengthening the local government special bond funds and project management, the "Guidance Opinion" proposed that the financial department should improve the local government special bond system, optimize the special bond issuance procedures, and rationally arrange the issuance progress. When allocating the scale of local government special bonds, fully consider the debt level, but also consider the capital needs of major projects under construction and short-board projects, as well as the reserve of national major construction project library projects.
In fact, since August this year, the Ministry of Finance has issued several articles to clarify the progress of the issuance of new local government special bonds in September and October.
China Bond Data and the information released by the Ministry of Finance show that in September 2018, the country issued 748.5 billion yuan of local government bonds. Among them, the general bonds are 74.5 billion yuan and the special bonds are 674 billion yuan; according to the use, new bonds are 704.4 billion yuan, and the replacement bonds and refinancing bonds (used to repay part of the local government bond principals, the same below) 44.1 billion yuan .
From January to September, the country issued a total of 379.94 billion yuan of local government bonds. Among them, the general bonds were 2,035.6 billion yuan and the special bonds were 1,763.8 billion yuan; according to the use, new bonds were 20113 billion yuan, and replacement bonds and refinancing bonds were 1,788.1 billion yuan.
In terms of bond custody balance, in October, the total amount of bond custody was 565.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.85%, an increase of 442.677 billion yuan. Among them, the balance of local government bond custody was 181,150.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.62%, an increase of 123.124 billion yuan.
Compared with the September data, the local bond issuance in October fell by more than 65%. Everbright Securities Fixed IncomeAnalystZhang Xu et al. issued a document saying that the issuance of local bonds fell sharply. The circulation in October decreased by more than 492.5 billion yuan. The 2018 issue has gradually come to an end.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that local bond issuance will slow down before it has been expected by the market. Liu Yu, a fixed-income analyst of Guosheng Securities, mentioned in the research report released in early October that after the peak of the August-September issue, the remaining amount of new special bonds in China has not been much, and it is expected that the follow-up issuance will slow down significantly. .
The national local debt limit is about 21 trillion
After experiencing the acceleration of local government special bond issuance, what is the stock and distribution of local government bonds this year?
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the national local government debt limit in 2018 was 209,974.30 billion yuan. Among them, the general debt limit is 1,234.822 billion yuan, and the local government special debt limit is 861.558 billion yuan.
As of the end of September 2018, the national local government debt balance was 1,825.92 billion yuan, which was controlled within the limits approved by the National People's Congress. Among them, the general debt was 1,087.9 billion yuan, the special debt was 738.13 billion yuan; the government bonds were 1800.27 billion yuan, and the government debt in the form of non-government bonds was 256.5 billion yuan.
As of October 18, 2018, local governments issued special bonds of 187.916 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of new special bonds was 1,264.426 billion yuan, accounting for 93.7% of the new special debt limit of 1.35 billion yuan. Local governments issued local government bonds totaling 2,151.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of new general bonds was 789.168 billion yuan, accounting for 95.1% of the new general debt limit of 830 billion yuan. At present, the circulation of new special debt quotas in 2018 is nearing completion.
Sun Binbin, a fixed-income analyst at Tianfeng Securities, believes that there is no clear constraint on the amount of new special debts. The new special debts from 2015 to 2018 are 100 billion yuan, 400 billion yuan, 800 billion yuan and 13500 yuan respectively. 100 million yuan, the annual increase is relatively large. The amount of future special debts may continue to maintain a larger increase than the general debt.
(Article source: Daily Economic News)