According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in June increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The CPI increase in July-September was 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Will the CPI after four consecutive rises continue to climb in October?
According to the research report of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, since October, the influence of the previous weather factors has gradually weakened, and the prices of edible agricultural products have continued to fall. It is preliminarily judged that the year-on-year increase of CPI in October may be around 2.3-2.5%, taking the median value of 2.4%. The CPI will end its trend of rising for four consecutive months, and the increase will fall slightly.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the average price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored from September 30 to October 31 decreased from 4.42 yuan/kg to 3.73 yuan/kg, a drop of 18.5%; the average price of 7 kinds of fruits monitored mainly From 5.65 yuan / kg to 5.07 yuan / kg; October 1 - 28, the weekly price of pork dropped from 20.04 yuan / kg to 19.62 yuan / kg.
Refined oilIn terms of price, the refined oil product experienced two increases in October. Domestic steam and firewood from 24 o'clock on September 30Oil priceThe grid (standard product, the same below) increased by 240 yuan and 230 yuan per ton respectively; from 24 o'clock on October 19, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 165 yuan and 160 yuan per ton respectively.
The data shows that 18 institutions forecast the CPI in October, and only 3 institutions predict more than 2.5%. Most institutions believe that the CPI increase in October is no more than 2.5%, or a slight decline.
For the future CPI trend, the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center research report believes that combined with the recent economic and financial situation and price trends, the year-on-year CPI high point has been realized, the price increase will begin to decline gradually in the fourth quarter, and the decline may be more obvious next year.
The team of Dr. Xie Yaxuan from China Merchants Securities believes that the CPI will fall again in October, and the pattern of moderate inflation has not changed in the whole year. The inflation factor still does not constrain the operation of monetary policy. In the first quarter of next year, there may be some inflationary pressures again. Both pig prices and vegetable prices may be potential risks. However, there is still no incentive to push CPI to break by 3 next year.
The Northeast Securities Research Report pointed out that the impact of the CPI base effect will gradually weaken during the year, and the lack of demand will also make it difficult for the CPI to rise sharply. Therefore, it is expected that the CPI will be within the controllable range during the year.
(Article source: Zhongxin Jingwei)