Local time at 2:00 on December 2,The U.S. Senate finally voted to pass the Republican tax reform billThis means that the U.S. tax system is about to usher in the most drastic changes in three decades. Under the tax reform bill passed this time, the corporate tax rate in the United States will drop substantially. A number of tax regimes including personal income tax will be simplified. Most of the existing tax breaks will be canceled and U.S. companies will be taxed at lower rates Transfer of overseas assets returned to the one-time taxation and so on.
How to make a more accurate and comprehensive interpretation of the most vicious tax reform bill in the history of the United States after it was passed? What is the impact on the Chinese market? Which options should investors make in the stock market? Which industries are expected to benefit? And listen to the interpretation of institutions!
Former open source Yang Delong said that Trump's tax reform plan was approved by the U.S. Senate. According to Trump's tax reduction plan, the tax reduction and exemption for the next 10 years will amount to about 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars, which will have a significant stimulating effect on the U.S. economy . Tax relief program gained By eliminating the uncertainty and increase corporate earnings expectations, may lead to further gains in US stocks, leading the global bull market to accelerate. For the first time in 30 years, the MSCI ACWI Global Stock Index recorded a thirteen consecutive rally with a cumulative increase of 21.3%. since this yearGlobal stock marketEverywhere, showing the most significant general upsurge in recent years, compared to the Chinese stock market laggard, strong demand for compensatory growth. U.S. tax cuts have stimulated a faster recovery of the U.S. economy and boosted China's export growth to the United States. It is estimated that in 2018, A-share market will continue.
Li Daxiao, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that this is a major tax adjustment in the United States. Its tax reduction efforts are the largest in the history of the United States and a major victory since President Trump assumed office. This has notable stimulating effect on U.S. economic growth. It also has a positive impact on the global economy. It is also an important promoter of the strength of the U.S. stock market and has a positive impact on the global stock market.
The macro-analysis team at the Yangtze River believes that the import growth rate of the three rounds of tax cuts in the history of the United States all rose sharply.
In 1981, 1986 and 2001-2003, the United States implemented a total of three rounds of tax cuts. After the implementation of tax cuts in each round of the United States, its domestic private consumption and investment growth have both risen significantly. Driven by the improvement in domestic demand, the import growth of the United States has risen sharply, including substantial expansion in the import of minerals, chemicals and machinery and equipment. During the tax cuts, stimulated by the U.S. demand, the growth rates of the world's major manufacturing-oriented countries' exports have greatly improved. Under the division of labor in the global value chain, consumer countries represented by the United States provide demand while producing countries represented by China, Germany and Japan are responsible for production.
Therefore, if the current round of tariff reductions is implemented in the United States and Rwanda, the export growth of China's electromechanical, chemical, plastic, rubber, basic metal and instrument manufacturing industries will increase significantly. On the one hand, after the U.S. tax relief in 2001, corresponding to the improvement in the import of the U.S. trade, Germany and Japan expanded their exports to such industries as the production of electromechanical, chemical, plastic, rubber, basic metal and equipment. On the other hand, since 2001, China's competitiveness in the above industries has increased substantially. The proportion of imports of these industries in the United States has basically exceeded that of Germany and Japan. Therefore, the current round of the United States tax cuts, exports of China's electrical and mechanical, chemical products, plastics and rubber, basic metals and equipment manufacturing industries will significantly improve.
According to Founder's statistics, Yang Weiwei believes that this will not result in excessive outflow of capital and will not exert too much pressure on the exchange rate. He further said that the devaluation of the renminbi will surely rise but will not lead to a sharp devaluation of the exchange rate because the domestic exchange rate formation system had undergone an anti-marketization change in May this year. When the counter-cyclical factor is introduced, Exchange rate fluctuations re-limit live, even theninterest rateParity on the RMB exchange rate pressure, there will not be too much devaluation losses. Yang Wei said that there may be more overseas-funded enterprises going to sea, but not too violent and will not have much impact on monetary policy. The key issue currently facing monetary policy is still the domestic bond market is also limited.
According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, the Trump tax reform bill was finally passed by the Senate. This is the largest adjustment made by the U.S. tax law in more than 30 years. It is also the first victory of Trump's economic stimulus after taking office, in line with market expectations. Tax reform bill finally passed, the short-term impact on capital flows may be more significant, good dollar and US stocks.
The dollar index will be at least six months relatively strong. On the one hand, the tax reform on economic stimulus, most of the capital flow may occur in 2018, pushing up economic growth expectations, inflation expectations, the Fed is likely to accelerate the pace of austerity; the other hand, the European Central Bank cut QE in 2018 at least six months after the start of In the face of the vacuum of monetary policy in the period of time, the interest rate hike expected by the ECB will not emerge until the end of 2018. It should be noted that the weakening of the U.S. dollar is one of the major factors causing the global risky assets to rise sharply in 2017, while the U.S. dollar may be relatively strong in 2018 (at least the first half of the year), together with the expected impact on the economy and inflation after the introduction of the tax reform in the first quarter Positive boost, then the Fed in the first half of 2018 may pass partial hawkish monetary policy stance to the market, resulting in some pressure on mid-term asset prices. In the short term, the passage of tax reform will help to boost market confidence. The drop in corporate tax will help increase EPS and offset the current valuation pressure on US stocks. The return of funds may also stimulate enterprises to increase their investment, dividends and repurchases, etc., which will benefit the US stocks.
Essence Securities analysts believe that the bill will further promote the United States economic recovery and boost the global economy is conducive to China's exports are expected to increase. China has previously proposed a supply-side reform focusing on "three cuts, one reduction and one fill-up", and we believe that in addition to the "lowering costs", in addition to the housing rental costs currently under consideration, corporate financeinterest rateAnd other enterprises to pay the future will be further implemented.
In the current position, investors have reason to be more positive and optimistic about the market. Structurally, the fundamentals of the supply side of cyclical stocks (limited capacity, low inventories, strong spot prices) have not changed, and the demand is expected to have some transaction value in the short term after being repaired. Based on the medium-term perspective of the New Year's Eve , We are more optimistic about technology stocks.
In the investment strategy, it is recommended to configure the concerned insurance, aviation, electronics, communications, chemicals and so on. Topics focus on semiconductors, smart manufacturing, Xiong, Hainan and so on. Worth mid-term attention: "China Chip" (SMIC, VGIC, Zhongke Dawning, Changdian Technology, etc.), Artificial Intelligence (IDF, NavInfo, etc.), 5G / IoT (ZTE, Yi Tong Century, etc.), intelligent manufacturing (the Yellow River Whirlwind, Huichuan Technology, etc.), integration of civil and military (Reiter shares, Tianyin mechanical and electrical, etc.).