2017, China's businessbankNon-performing assets continued to slow down. Looking forward to 2018, as macroeconomic conditions stabilize and the effects of economic restructuring continue to emerge, the steady and steady asset quality of commercial banks will continue.
Non-performing loan growth continued to decline
As of the end of 2017, non-performing assets of commercial banks in China continued to slow down. The non-performing loan balance was 17,057.5 billion yuan, an increase of 193.5 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and a decrease of 44.3 billion yuan from the same period of last year. The non-performing loan ratio was 1.74%, unchanged from the end of 2016. The reserve level continued to increase slightly with provision coverage and loan provisioning rates of 181.42% and 3.16% respectively.
The proportion of non-performing loans and loans of special interest continued to show "one flat and one drop." In 2017, the growth rate of non-performing loans of commercial banks in the whole year was obviously lower than the annual figure of 2016, and the non-performing loan ratio of the commercial banks remained unchanged from the beginning of the year and remained steady for five consecutive quarters. Concern loans of commercial banks showed a continuous improvement. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the outstanding loans of special mention dropped by 12.6 billion yuan, increasing by only 56.8 billion yuan for the whole year of 2017, a decrease of 410.2 billion yuan over the previous year, and the proportion of special-mention loans was also lower than that of the beginning of the year Down 0.38 percentage points. In 2017, the improvement in credit risk conditions of commercial banks benefited mainly from two aspects. First, the slight rebound in economic growth brought about an improvement in the profitability of enterprises. Especially in the supply-side structural reform environment, the various policies of lowering leverage and de-capacity were The relatively weak performance of the upstream industries in the previous two years brought fresh vitality to the industry and led to a rise in the quality of loans to the industry. Second, the profit growth picked up more commercial banks' write-off of financial resources and write-offs of commercial banks throughout the year Continue to maintain a high level.
The loan loss reserve continued to grow, and the ability to offset risks rose steadily. In 2017, supported by the provision of stable and stable asset quality in the industry, the balance of loan loss reserves of commercial banks increased by 426.8 billion yuan to 3,094.4 billion yuan as compared with the end of 2016, and the provision increase was significantly higher than that of non-performing loans. The provision coverage ratio increased by 5.02 percentage points from the beginning of 2017 to 181.42%. The loan provisioning rate also slightly increased by 8 percentage points to 3.16% from the beginning of 2017, and the risk mitigation capacity continued to improve. At present, the overall loan-to-deposit ratio and provision coverage of commercial banks are higher than the regulatory requirements, the relative stock and potential credit risk may cause losses, the ability to offset the risk in a more reasonable range.
Asset quality continued to improve in 2018
In 2018, as the macroeconomic environment improves steadily and the economic structural adjustment effect further manifests itself, the asset quality of commercial banks will continue to stabilize and improve. However, the potential risks in some areas still can not be ignored, and will to a certain extent restrict the improvement of asset quality.
First, internal and external factors to jointly promote the commercial bank asset quality to better. In 2018, with the accumulation of positive factors in China's economic restructuring and upgrading and the release of potential credit risk pressures, internal and external factors will jointly promote the quality of assets of commercial banks. The proportion of non-performing loans is expected to continue to be steady and may even decline. The stabilization of the macroeconomic environment and the marked improvement in the quality and efficiency of economic growth will significantly improve the production and operation of enterprises, promote the effective credit demand of enterprises and enhance the profitability and solvency of enterprises. The new non-performing loans are expected to improve compared with previous years. And the improvement of forward-looking indicators such as the proportion of loans of concern, which shows that the asset quality of commercial banks has further stabilized. The gradually improved profitability of commercial banks, the relatively high level of provision and the ever-widening channels for disposal of non-performing assets have provided a platform for the continuous promotion of the resolution of the stock risk Provide a better protection.
Second, some areas of potential risk still need attention. In 2018, China's economy is still at a critical period of transforming its mode of development, optimizing its economic structure and shifting its growth momentum. The potential risks in some areas still need to be paid attention to. First of all, deepening supply-side structural reforms will push China's economy to transform from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. In the process, some enterprises, especially those with high-debt-ratio rates, whose production technology is backward and their market prospects are bleak, will continue to be released. With the advent of a strong regulatory system for financial de-leveraging, the scarcity of credit resources will increase. High-quality credit demand will have a crowding-out effect on the higher-risk stock loans and promote the growth of non-performing loans. Second, atreal estateIndustry concentration continues to improve and the overall market regulation tighter situation, the development of small and medium-sized housing enterprises there is a certain degree of uncertainty. Following the mortgage-related loans, housing loans, asset management plans and other financing channels are limited, trusts, overseas bond issuance and other financing channels are also subject to strict supervision and control, housing financing fully tightened. Due to the increase of financing costs and the continuous improvement of industry concentration, small and medium-sized housing enterprises will be mergers and acquisitions or restructuring will become the trend, in this process, the market impact of the relatively weak risk of small and medium-sized enterprises will have room Enhance. Third, non-performing loans in some areas are still in the stage of growing inertia. While the NPLs are improving overall, regional differentiation is more obvious. The NPL ratio shows a trend of low in the southeast coastal areas and high in the northeast and western hinterland. Looking from the trend of change in the future, the pre-exposure of credit risk in the eastern coastal areas has been relatively adequate. With the adjustment in recent years, the downward trend in the non-performing loan ratio will continue. However, the release of credit risk will continue in the northeast and central and western regions, where the economic foundation is weaker, the backward production capacity is relatively large, and the state-owned enterprises reform is more difficult, and the inertia of the asset quality decline will still be greater.
In general, in 2018, the macroeconomic environment continued to improve steadily, the effects of economic restructuring began to appear, and the pressure on release of potential risks slowed down. Although risks in some areas were not enough to change the steady and favorable asset quality of commercial banks as a whole It is estimated that the NPL ratio for the full year may be in the range of 1.70% to 1.75%.
(Original title: Commercial banks asset quality in 2018 to the good situation will continue)