2017, China's businessbankNon-performing asset growth continued to slow. Looking forward to 2018, as the macro-environment tends to be stable and the economic restructuring effect continues to appear, the commercial bank's asset quality will stabilize and the trend will continue.
Non-performing loan growth continues to decline
As of the end of 2017, the growth of non-performing assets of commercial banks in China continued to slow down. The balance of non-performing loans was 1,705.7 billion yuan, an increase of 193.5 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, a year-on-year increase of 44.3 billion yuan; the non-performing loan ratio was 1.74%, which was the same as the end of 2016; The reserve level continued to increase slightly, and the provision coverage ratio and loan provision ratio were 181.42% and 3.16%, respectively.
The proportion of non-performing loans and the proportion of loans of concern continued to show “one level and one down”. In 2017, the growth rate of non-performing loans of commercial banks in the whole year was significantly lower than that of 2016. The non-performing loan ratio at the end of the year was the same as that at the beginning of the year, and remained stable for five consecutive quarters. Commercial banks' interest-oriented loans showed a continuous improvement trend. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the balance of concern loans decreased by 12.6 billion yuan. In 2017, the total increase was only 56.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 410.2 billion yuan from the previous year, and the proportion of concern loans was also earlier than that at the beginning of the year. Decreased by 0.38 percentage points. In 2017, the improvement of credit risk status of commercial banks was mainly due to two aspects. First, the slight rebound in economic growth brought about improvement in corporate profitability. Especially in the supply-side structural reform environment, various leverage reduction and de-capacity policies were In the past two years, the upstream industry, which has relatively weak performance, has injected new vitality, which has driven up the quality of industry loans. Second, the rebound in profit growth has enabled commercial banks to have more sufficient financial resources to write off, and the write-off of commercial banks throughout the year. Continue to stay at a higher level.
The loan loss reserve continued to grow, and the risk-reward ability rose steadily. In 2017, with the support of stable and relatively stable provisioning policies for industrial assets, the balance of loan losses for commercial banks increased by 426.8 billion yuan to 3,094.4 billion yuan at the end of 2016. The increase in provision was significantly higher than the growth rate of non-performing loans. The provision coverage ratio increased by 5.02 percentage points to 181.42% compared with the beginning of 2017. The loan provision rate also increased slightly by 8 percentage points to 3.16% from the beginning of 2017, and the risk offset capability continued to increase. At present, the overall loan-to-deposit ratio and provision coverage ratio of commercial banks are higher than the regulatory requirements. In terms of the losses that may be caused by the relative stocks and potential credit risks, the risk-reward ability is in a more reasonable range.
Asset quality continues to improve in 2018
In 2018, as the macro-environment is stable and the economic restructuring effect is further manifested, the commercial bank's asset quality will stabilize and the trend will continue. However, the potential risks in some areas cannot be ignored, and will restrict the improvement of asset quality to a certain extent.
First, internal and external factors have jointly promoted the quality of commercial banks' assets. In 2018, as the positive factors in China's economic transformation and upgrading continue to accumulate and the pressure on the release of potential credit risks slows down, internal and external factors will jointly promote the quality of commercial banks' assets, and the proportion of non-performing loans is expected to remain stable and may even decline. The macro environment tends to be stable and the quality and efficiency of economic growth will be significantly improved. It will significantly improve the production and operation of enterprises, promote the increase of effective credit demand of enterprises, and enhance the profitability and solvency of enterprises. New non-performing loans are expected to improve compared with previous years. The improvement of forward-looking indicators such as the proportion of interest-related loans indicates that the asset quality of commercial banks has further stabilized; the profitability of commercial banks has gradually improved, the higher provisioning level and the increasingly widening channels for disposal of non-performing assets, in order to continuously promote the stock risk Provide a better guarantee.
Second, potential risks in some areas still need attention. In 2018, China's economy is still in a critical period of transforming its development mode, optimizing its economic structure, and transforming its growth momentum. Potential risks in some areas still need to be addressed. First, deepening supply-side structural reforms will drive China's economy from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. In the process, some companies, especially those with low production-based technology and bleak market prospects, will continue to release credit risks. With the advancement of financial de-leverage supervision policy, the scarcity of credit resources will be improved, and high-quality credit demand will have a certain crowding out effect on high-risk stock loans, and promote the growth of non-performing loans. Secondly, atreal estateUnder the situation that the concentration of the industry is constantly improving and the overall regulation of the market is becoming stricter, there is a certain uncertainty in the development of small and medium-sized housing enterprises. Following financing restrictions such as housing loans, housing debts, and asset management plans, financing channels such as trusts and overseas bond issuance are also strictly restricted by regulation, and housing financing has been tightened. Affected by various factors such as increased financing costs and increasing industry concentration, small and medium-sized housing enterprises will be merged into mergers and acquisitions or transformation will become a trend. In this process, the risk level of small and medium-sized housing enterprises with relatively weak market influence will be Upgrade. Third, non-performing loans in some regions are still in the stage of inertia growth. While the overall non-performing loans are improving, the regional differentiation phenomenon is more obvious, and the non-performing loan ratio is higher in the southeast coastal areas and in the northeast and western inland areas. From the perspective of future changes, the early exposure of credit risk in the eastern coastal areas has been relatively adequate. After adjustments in recent years, the trend of non-performing loan ratios will continue. In the northeastern and central and western regions where the economic foundation is relatively weak, the backward production capacity is relatively large, and the reform of state-owned enterprises is difficult, the release of credit risk will continue, and the inertia of asset quality decline is still large.
In general, in 2018, the macro environment continued to be stable, the effect of economic restructuring began to appear, and the potential risk release pressure slowed down. Although there were risks in some areas, it was not enough to change the overall stable and good trend of commercial bank asset quality. It is expected that the non-performing asset ratio for the whole year may be in the range of 1.70% to 1.75%.
(Original title: The quality of commercial banks' asset quality will continue in 2018)