On the evening of April 17, the People's Bank of China announced that it would downgrade large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks.Deposit reserveThe rate is 1 percentage point; on the same day, the above banks will each use the funds released by the RRR reduction to repay the medium-term borrowing facilities (MLF) they have borrowed from the central bank in the order of “first borrow first, return first”. The central bank stated that with the data at the end of the first quarter of 2018, the repayment of MLF on the day of operation was about 900 billion yuan, while the release of incremental funds was about 400 billion yuan. Most of the incremental funds were released to city commercial banks and non-county rural commercial banks.
This article from the Yangtze River Strategy, the original title "history look, the direction of the market trend after declining," the following is an excerpt.
As a way for the central bank to release liquidity, what kind of impact will the market bring?
Since 2014, the central bank has conducted eight cuts, including three targeted directional cuts (April 2014, June 2014 and June 2015) and five full-rate cuts (February 2015, 2015 April, September 2015, October 2015 and March 2016). (Partially reduced quasi-adjustment has been accompanied by directional reduction. In this case, we classify it as an overall reduction.)
We have separately counted five trading days, 30 trading days and 90 trading days after theGEMThe performance of numbers: As a whole, the market did not show a clear pattern after directional declining, but after a full demotion, the market has a large probability of rising in the short-term (5 trading days, 30 trading days), but in the long term There is no obvious pattern.
Judging from the background of the previous several directional RRR cuts, generally speaking, the economy is facing certain downward pressure. When the risks of deflation and the decline in foreign exchange expenditures occur, they mainly fall into the fine-tuning of policies, and their influence and scope are less than the overall reduction.
This time, the central bank can hedging the liquidity pressure of the current market on the one hand, but at the same time because it is not an overall reduction, it will not give the market more relaxed liquidity expectations, and there is a three-month buffer period, real Implementation will be in 2018.
As a whole, there is no absolute statistical rule for the impact of the RRR cut on the market, and it may affect the risk appetite to a greater extent. Under the current market environment, the RRR cut may create the possibility of increasing risk appetite in the short term. In the medium term, however, we need to pay more attention to the landing of the medium- and long-term financial deleveraging policy.