Friedman said that all inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
However, this classic statement in China is actually not just in China. It seems to have failed after entering the 21st century.
January 2018 in ChinaCPIIs 1.5%, less than 2% for 12 consecutive months. This figure is more worrying about deflation than worrying about inflation. In contrast, China's M2 was 8.6% in January, although it has dropped a lot compared with the peak of 14%, but it still recovered from the 8.2% at the end of last year with money still in circulation and the liquidity is not complete Tighten up, but send the money not so much in the past.
Where have the money gone?
Everyone on Earth knows that Chinese people have gone to moneyreal estateThis market, although "housing is not speculation" is a consensus already formed, but inertia is a very stubborn thing. In the policy of tightening again in 2017, the real estate market is still hot as the underground magma. The annual sales of 13.3701 trillion yuan , The sales area of 1.69408 billion square meters, both hit a record high. Developers camp has rushed into the strip 500 billion, and more than one, Vanke,Country Garden, Hengda leader, the second camp has also entered the scale of 300 billion. In 2018, a number that has blinded the eyes of many people shows that the loan increment of Chinese residents was 901.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1007 billion yuan over the all-time high of 797.7 billion yuan hit in March 2017, of which short-term loans increased by 310.6 billion yuan, Loans increased by 591 billion yuan. Obviously, with the efforts of the Chinese government repeatedly de-leveraging, the residents' leverage has risen up and down while the funds continue to flow into the real estate market. In the same comparison, the increase in deposits of Chinese residents in January was 8.676 billion yuan, which means that the net deposits of residents are still declining. In February 2016, the net deposits of Chinese residents reached a historical peak of 29.87 trillion yuan. In 2017, At the end of the year, the total deposits of residents reached 64.38 trillion, the balance of loans was 40.5 trillion, the net deposits were only 23.88 trillion, a year-long decrease of 6 trillion yuan. Generally speaking, the residents' debts accounted for the growth of disposable income of residents % -100% leverage ratio has reached 54%, lower than 79% of the United States. Nearly 58% of Japan and 59% of the euro area, higher than Germany, Austria and Italy, other emerging countries are not comparable, only 16% in Russia, India 11%, Mexico 17%, Brazil 22%, Argentina only 10% .
However, the increase in consumer spending is only one of the few. In 2017, consumer credit in China showed an explosive growth. Short-term loans to residents increased by 1.83 trillion in the year, an increase of 181.8% over the same period of last year. However, A large number of disguised as the down payment of loans, if you count the cash credit is not within the scope of statistics, the scale is even greater,PPIIt hit 5.5% in the middle of the year and 4.3% in January 2018, but the ex-factory price index of industrial products is less than the consumer price index. This is an unpredictable result of Friedman.
The question now is more realistic. How do we view this increment of 900 billion yuan? Is it a signal that regulates relaxation or a pulse that returns to the light? Is it necessary or accidental? Reversal or rebound?
From the perspective of controlling the financial risk, management has been controlling the leverage of residents, especially the movements of real estate funds. In 2017, the outstanding balance of personal housing loans stood at 21.86 trillion yuan (excluding loans of about 4 trillion CPF), up by 22.2% over the same period of last year %, The growth rate dropped 14.5% over 2016. The new long-term loans to residents reached 5.3 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 7% over the same period last year. This trend will not be reversed in the next three years, so the answer is clear!
There are roughly three factors in the amount of 900 billion
First, because of the Spring Festival factor, January focused on the amount of advance;
Second, because of the factors of the credit policy in the second half of last year, manybankIn fact, the suspension of loans, into the 2018 use of new quota amount;
Third, because the credit increase in 2018 will not be reduced, banks will catch up sooner or later.
The numbers are sometimes a game, as we were surprised to see the 2.9 trillion credit increase in January, a seeming record high on the surface, but only 3.1 trillion from the scale of social financing, which is lower than in January 2016 3.9 trillion and 3.7 trillion in January 2017, are you saying that the money is more or less?
(The original title: digital games without breaking 900 billion can not explain any problem)