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Water skin: The double-track system of housing prices is not alone. Who broke the expectations of regulation?

May 13, 2018 10:10
Author: Water Paper
source: Huaxia Times
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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Summary
[Water skin: house price "dual track system" is not alone. Who broke the expectations of regulation? 】 It is a consensus to live without speculation, but this consensus is basically only in theory. The real situation in real life has now evolved into a pattern of “staying and robbing”. (Huaxia Times)

  It is a consensus that the room does not stir up.

However, this consensus is basically only in theory. The real situation in real life has now evolved into a pattern of “staying and robbing”.

Chongqing is just a microcosm.

The country's largest municipality with a population of 30 million, the actual urban population is only 8 million, plus 2 million permanent residents are only about 10 million. In 2016, the real estate sales area of ​​Chongqing was more than 20 million square meters. In 2017, it was 36 million square meters. The sales in the first four months of this year have reached 11 million square meters. It is not surprising that the sales in 2018 will probably exceed 3000. Ten thousand square meters. 3 years is close to 80 million square meters, and 100 square meters is 800,000 sets, which is about one-tenth of the registered population. This kind of sales is so hot that even local developers are afraid of it. Many people give it in the open forum. The market is pouring cold water, reminding the market to enter the adjustment cycle in the second half of 2018, but, right now? The real situation is that "one room is hard to find", the developer's real estate is basically "second disc", investors are good, consumers are good, investment is good, just need, it has formed a common expectation, do not grab white not to grab If you rob the white rob, who will not grab it?

Why?

Because the first-hand house and the second-hand house are upside down!

In order to control the excessive rise of housing prices, local governments now limit the price of second-hand housing in the market, and the price of second-hand housing in the market is controlled by the construction committee. The first-hand housing is much lower than the second-hand housing. Bank mortgages can also be leveraged. The arbitrage space thus formed is not stunned. Even if the whole house is bought, some people will line up to buy, and if they buy it, they will earn it. There are no new things under the sun. A similar situation has appeared in Nanjing. Hangzhou has also appeared. Chongqing is just a re-enactment. The formation of this arbitrage space is artificial and the inevitable regulation is simple. Can the price be regulated? Price control is useful. What do we study about supply and demand, and we are full?

Expected management is the art of the door.

Well done, calm.

If you don't do well, get angry.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently talked about the heads of Chengdu and Taiyuan. They also talked about ten cities including Xi'an, Haikou, Sanya, Changchun, Harbin, Kunming, Dalian, Guiyang, Xuzhou and Foshan, emphasizing the real estate market regulation goals. Unshakable, the strength is not relaxed, this is the same signal released after the two ministers' passage.

The cities that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have discussed have some common characteristics: First, the second-tier cities are not the first-tier or new-tier cities that have led the rise, but they have a compensatory nature to some extent. Second, the regulation of these cities is not strong. The investor has a certain space; the third is that the local government’s “grab man” reason has actually relaxed the restrictions on the settlement and purchase of foreign residents, and even introduced relevant subsidy measures to stimulate short-term housing prices to some extent. Obviously, this and the central The tone is uncoordinated and uncoordinated, but the effect of the interview, no one can be sure, the water skin is worried about the counterproductive, the formation of the price limit and the opposite of the regulation of the expectations, resulting in irrational panic buying.

The price "dual track system" is a special means in the special period and specific stage of China's marketization process. It is a gradual strategy that breaks through the rigid system of the planned economy. The side effects are also obvious. The formation of arbitrage space is also the process of rent-seeking space formation. Corruption is accompanied by it. Today, 40 years of reform and opening up, the real estate market actually has two prices, the first-hand housing market and the second-hand housing market. This must not be progress but backward.

Expectations are mutually influential. If “one room is hard to find”, investors will panic, will developers be quiet? Statistics show that the growth rate of investment in real estate development in the country is experiencing a huge rebound. From January to December 2017, this figure has dropped from 9.3% of the year's high point to 7.0%, but in January and March 2018, this figure is currently It is already 10.4%, of which the growth rate of residential investment is even larger, at 13.3%, while the relative figure is 6.9% at the end of 2016, the absolute investment is 1,02581 billion, the year of 2017 is 1,097.9 billion, and the year of January 2018 is 1,212.9 billion. Will the developer wear "red shoes" to the rhythm that can't stop and eventually the capital chain breaks?

                (Original title: Housing price "dual track system" is not alone. Who broke the expectations of regulation?)

                (Editor: DF064)

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