"This year's market trend is similar to the second half of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012. There are many similarities in the economic and monetary policies during the two periods, but in non-standard financing, infrastructure andreal estateDifferences in other aspects may lead to significant differences in future bond market trends and after the first quarter of 2012. ”Changjiang SecuritiesZhao Wei, head of the macro department of the institute, said in an exclusive interview with the China Securities Journal reporter that the probability of the bond continuing the bull market in the medium term is relatively large.
China Securities Journal: The overall trend of the bond market and the stock market this year is similar to which stage in history?
Zhao Wei: Since the beginning of this year, the 10-year government bond yield has fallen 33BP and the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 19.1%. Back in the history, the market trend from the second half of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012 is similar to this year, and the change is closer. From the perspective of major economic indicators, the economic, infrastructure investment and consumption growth rate declined during the two periods.PPIFall back, but export andCPIThe changes are different. The export growth rate remained at a relatively high level this year, and the export growth rate dropped significantly at that time. This year, the overall CPI rose and the CPI dropped at a high level. In the two periods, there are also many similarities in terms of policies. The monetary environment has turned to easing, hedging “tight credit”, and financial measures such as tax cuts.
China Securities Journal: Will the future bond market trend be similar to that after the first quarter of 2012?
Zhao Wei: This year and the second half of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, the economic growth rate, investment and consumption and other economic indicators are similar, and there are some similarities in the monetary and financial environment and finance, but there are also some obvious periods in the two periods. difference. Compared with this year, non-standard financing at that time did not have new assets and regulations, and there was no suppression of local government debt risk in infrastructure investment and financing. Real estate regulation and control has turned to relaxation. In addition, the bottom of the global economic boom has rebounded, and demand recovery has stabilized the economy. The rate of return went down; the central bank tightened liquidity for the purpose of controlling non-standard financing, which also led to a phased adjustment of the bond market. These factors are different or core variables that affect the future bond market.
The trend of future economic fundamentals and liquidity may be different from that after the first quarter of 2012, which will lead to a different bond market trend than the latter and a relatively high probability of continuing the debt cow in the medium term. Since the middle of the year, the policy has turned to steady growth. It is different from the traditional old road of flooding and comprehensive stimulation. Under the framework of transformation, policy stability has paid more attention to structural development, and the recovery of infrastructure investment has been limited, and the gradual manifestation of the credit contraction lag effect. The economic fundamentals are still evolving in a direction favorable to the bond market; at the same time, in order to hedge the impact of credit contraction, liquidity may continue to be reasonably abundant. In addition, the decline in overseas business will also drag down exports.
China Securities Journal: What is the judgment on the follow-up bond market?
Zhao Wei: Considering the impact of factors such as overseas markets and inflation expectations,interest rateThe debt will fluctuate in a short-term or narrow range; in the medium term, the bond market will return to fundamentals. In the short-term, changes in overseas markets and inflation expectations, or some interference in the trading sentiment of the bond market,interest rateDebt or a narrow range of shocks. In the medium term, the policy stability under the transitional framework is not to stimulate the old road, pay more attention to structural power, the lag effect of credit contraction, or to make the fundamentals beneficial to the bond market, the support of overlapping liquidity, the rate of return or tend to Downstream.
(Article source: China Securities Journal)