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Guo Shiliang: US stocks rose and returned to strength. Will it be an opportunity for A shares to rise again?

November 08, 2018 08:17
Author: Guo Shi Liang
source: Fortune Guo Shiliang Finance Review
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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Summary
In the past, the A-share market often showed up with the decline, but in the recent period, the independence of the A-share market has increased. This is the real performance of the stock market close to the historical bottom and the capital to enter the market. Perhaps, with the increasing flexibility of stock market policy supervision and the increasing valuation advantage of A-shares, the willingness of large capital institutions to invest in the A-share market will gradually increase, and under the trend of gradually opening up the market, foreign capital will realize through A-shares. The demand for global asset allocation will also increase significantly, which may also be an important prerequisite for the A-share market to gradually get rid of the downturn.

This year's US stock market, the market throughout the year basically maintained a wide-ranging turbulent operation pattern. During the period, there were many times to test the trend of the demarcation line between the bulls and bears, but in the end it was still shocking and showing the strong side of the US stock market.

In the fourth quarter of this year, the volatility of the US stock market increased significantly, but after the single-month slump in October this year, the US stock market in November showed signs of renewed strength. In the latest trading hours, the US stock market rebounded again strongly, and there is a trend close to the historical highs in the previous period, which broke the worries of US stocks entering the bear market.

In fact, the test of the global stock market in 2018 is very significant, andGlobal stock marketThe differentiation performance is also very obvious. On the one hand, it is the new high in the European and American markets, and on the other hand, the shocking downturn in emerging markets, which reflects the performance of the strong and weak of the global stock market.

As the A-share market represented by emerging market stocks, the stock market performance this year is more complicated. However, for the A-share market, not only the exchange rate fluctuations, asset price volatility problems, but also the stock market pledge risk of listed companies frequently triggered due to the stock market downturn.

Faced with the pledge pressure of the stock market, the irrational sell-off and the tide of reduction have accelerated the downward trend of the stock market. The market has basically swallowed up the previous round of bull market.

2449.20 points have become the new low point of the Shanghai market, but there is still a certain unknown for the qualitative nature of this point. The reason is mainly because the A-share market belongs to a typical policy market, and the overhaul of the stock market bear market over the years is inseparable from the bottom of the policy, the bottom of the market and even the absolute low.

However, in the context of the recent intensive policy initiatives, it can also be confirmed as the establishment of the bottom of the A-share market policy. As for the bottom of the market and the absolute low, the former may be inadvertently explored in the market, but the latter may have some controversy, but take a step back and think that even if the stock market still has an absolute low, it will not be far from the 2449.20 point. 2449.20 points are basically the history of the A-share market.

In the A-share market, it is often inseparable from the driving effect of funds. This is also a true portrayal of the stock market "Chengdu funds, defeated funds." As for the stock market's valuation level, price-to-book ratio and even the net-break rate, it is often only a reference. From the previous bear market adjustments, the stock market will not be very low or the net profit rate is high. And immediately out of the sharp rise in the market, in the final analysis depends on the risk appetite of market funds and the expected recovery of the financial environment.

However, after a previous round of vigorous deleveraging and de-foaming process, the average daily trading volume of the A-share market can exceed one trillion, and the prosperity of the two-in-one balance of more than two trillions may become a history. From the next few years, it may be difficult for the A-share market to reproduce the glory of the year, and the trend of the stock market may gradually become rational. However, for the substantial recovery of the stock market's capital environment, it is often necessary to comprehensively promote the policy environment and the money-making effect. It is indispensable. Only when the stock market funds environment is substantially boosted, the stock market can hope to break through the above-mentioned intensive chips. Peak District, and there is an opportunity to rise again.

Standing in the current market environment analysis, the A-share market is facing the test of the 2638 blown bottom, and the gap between the Shanghai stock market on the 60-day line and the National Day holiday this year has become an important resistance for the stock market to continue moving forward. However, for the US stock market to rise again and there are signs of returning to strength, this seems to give the A-share market a chance to regain strength. The key point is whether the market can grasp the opportunity of this time and firmly guard the results of the 2638 fuse support.

In the past, the A-share market often showed up with the decline, but in the recent period, the independence of the A-share market has increased. This is the real performance of the stock market close to the historical bottom and the capital to enter the market. Perhaps, with the increasing flexibility of stock market policy supervision and the increasing valuation advantage of A-shares, the willingness of large capital institutions to invest in the A-share market will gradually increase, and under the trend of gradually opening up the market, foreign capital will realize through A-shares. The demand for global asset allocation will also increase significantly, which may also be an important prerequisite for the A-share market to gradually get rid of the downturn.

(Article source: Fortune Guo Shiliang Finance Review)

                (Editor: DF078)

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