Trump announced an unprecedented tax cuts program, corporate tax directly from the current 35% to 15%, the tax threshold has almost doubled.
The implementation of this program, triggering global boiling, everyone's interpretation of different, I come to tell you what this tax relief plan means.
1, the U.S. governmentRevenueReally will reduce it
The answer is of course NO.
People's Daily said the tax relief plan will lead the U.S. government to reduce its fiscal revenue by 2 trillion to 6 trillion U.S. dollars in the next 10 years.
This statement can only be based on the fact that the size of the U.S. economy and the profitability of enterprises do not change.
Laffer's economic common sense tells us that the relationship between tax rate and tax is not simply a linear relationship between the shift, but the limit under the constraints of the curve.
If the tax rate is not high, the tax scale will indeed increase with the tax rate. However, once the tax rate reaches the limit, the cost of the business will increase, the profit will fall, and even the problems of survival and development will arise. As a result, the tax base will inevitably start to increase with the tax rate The decline, the tax scale will also decline.
Laffer curve theory, it is the so-called supply-side reform of the most important theoretical basis.
Such a massive tax cut by the U.S. government can basically be sure that it will surely make the future U.S. a tax haven.
The future of global high-quality companies will flock to the United States, the United States own business will be a large number of evacuation from overseas, return home. The total economic output of the United States is bound to rise by a large scale. As the economy grows in size, the total profits of enterprises and the total amount of personal income also increase greatly, and the total amount of tax increases inevitably on a large scale.
Therefore, in the future, the U.S. government's fiscal revenue will not only be reduced, but will increase on a large scale.
2, the United States future economic situation will be how
People's Daily said that this tax reform will make the United States as a wholeGDPIncrease 6.9 to 8.2 percentage points and add 2 million new jobs. Although this statement is conservative, but basically reliable.
As I have said many times, on a global scale, the monetary policy has completely nullified the economic adjustment. The negativeinterest rateIt is proof that China's monetary policy will only give chaos to the economy simply because it can not save the European economy.
Under the prevalence of global universality, only by increasing people's income, raising the level of consumption and stimulating domestic demand and foreign demand can the economy be saved.
With such a large-scale tax cut by the United States, the profitability of enterprises will increase. Only when profit-making enterprises have risen, will they be able to develop new technologies, invest in new projects and expand their total output to boost employment.
So no matterGDPThere is no doubt that there will be a substantial increase in the growth rate or the level of employment. I am afraid to say what the future economic situation in the United States will be. However, it is certain that it will be better on the existing basis.
What impact will this tax cut have on the world?
It is certain that one of the effects will trigger a large-scale tax concession in market economy countries.
Because taxes determine the cost of business, but also determine the competitiveness of goods, but also determines the country's ability to attract capital, technology, talent and business investment composed of these elements.
The second effect is that it may be the economic life of some non-market economy countries. Most non-market economy countries are not charged corporate income tax, but the collection of turnover tax.
In economics terms, the tax on turnover is a rogue tax, a fatal flaw on businesses, especially small and medium-sized businesses and start-ups.
The reason why the tax collection, in essence, the level of tax administration can not keep up with the times, income tax simply can not be levied.
Competition in the international market does not depend on the strength of the enterprises, but on the government's policy of nurturing the enterprises and subsidizes the export enterprises with the tax of the entire people.
In the face of this tax reduction by the United States, I am afraid I am no longer able to compete with the export enterprises no matter how subsidized them.
As I have said many times, companies do not have their own creativity and competitiveness. Blood transfusion is not a long-term policy by policy. Today, this can not be long-term plan I am afraid I can only stop here.
Massive tax cuts in the United States will certainly result in a fatal blow to the non-market economies objectively. In fact, they are using market means to close the door to the U.S. market and attract the best businesses in the world to the United States. There is no real competitive enterprise in the United States outside the market gate.
When all market economy countries follow the United States to pursue a tax concession, the non-market economy will certainly be excluded from the international market. This already recession economy will be worse, into a serious recession or crisis.
4, so tax cuts will lead to financial risk it
The same answer is NO.
Only when the real economy does not work, can capital go to the stock market, the property market, the futures market and the commodities market.
If the real economic situation is good, the business entities make money, who will go to high-risk capital market gambling it?
Financial risk is closely related to the real economy. How to speculate in the financial market, we must base on the real economy or at least to the real economy as a gimmick. The worse the real economy, the greater the financial risk.
The United States tax cuts, the first benefit is the real economy. The real economy is better, the financial risk must be reduced rather than increased. Therefore, the People's Daily said it is somewhat far-fetched that such a tax reduction by the United States will increase financial risks.
Of course, the financial risk is always higher than the risk of physical operation, which is determined by the nature of its virtual economy. Tax cuts or not, can not change the essence of financial high-risk.
The size of financial risk, but also with the financial monopoly is positive, the more serious the monopoly, the higher the risk. Wherever monopolies of financial power make waves in the financial arena, tax cuts are many times more risky than anywhere else.
For each country, more consideration should be given to its own problems. Whether the tax cuts in the United States will increase the financial risks, I am afraid we do not have to worry about it.