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Water skin: two important signals of destocking How far is the policy and market distance?

September 01, 2018 16:34
Author:Water skin
source: China Times

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The destocking has basically come to an end.

The landmark event was that Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, announced the complete cessation of real estate destocking measures, and second, Changchun City announced that it would stop monetizing resettlement in shantytowns.The reason why this is a landmark event is that Hohhot can be said to be the vanguard of the last round of real estate stimulating expansion, and the first city to cancel the restriction on loans.The transformation of Changchun's shantytowns has a demonstration effect in the country, and the monetization resettlement is an important reason for the continuous expansion of the base currency in recent years.

The distance between policy and market is much farther away than a piece of paper, so the arc of reflection is much longer.

Destocking is aimed at the real estate in the third- and fourth-tier cities with serious backlogs. The over-development of the third- and fourth-line real estate is rooted in the mistakes of the developers. As the housing prices in the first- and second-tier cities rise sharply, the land cost rises sharply, and a large number of developers are powerless. Participating in the auction, taking it for granted that the third- and fourth-tier cities are the latecomers of the first- and second-tier cities. With the investment, the sensitive developers immediately realized the logic errors, but a large number of post-knowledges Deep into it, unable to extricate themselves, and the government plays the role of a savior.

In theory, destocking is said to have inventory, and the formation of inventory is oversupply, even if the price can not be sold, the formation of "ghost city" is the case. In the final analysis, the house is used to live, no one has no demand, no need to go to stock?

But, but it can.

A miracle has appeared.

The prices of third- and fourth-tier cities have actually risen, and they have risen a lot. Housing prices in Hohhot have reached 9,000 yuan per square meter. Under the influence of price increase expectations, some places even have a hard-to-find phenomenon. Buying houses must be drawn! The law of supply and demand has been subverted. Who can give a reasonable explanation?

  The monetization of the shed can be explained.

Undoubtedly, the transformation of shanty towns is a project to benefit the country and the people. The demand for shed reforms has indeed become a strong support for the inventory of third- and fourth-tier cities. The past shed-reforms were basically physical resettlement. In other words, basic It is a 1:1 resettlement, demand and supply are corresponding and balanced, and the impact on house prices is negligible and negligible.

However, the monetization resettlement plan that began to be promoted in 2015 is not the case. The compensation plan is issued to the household in monetary terms. When the relocatee is provided with various free choices, it also inadvertently enlarges the demand, because real estate is mortgageable, almost all people All have the need to improve the living environment and quality, are willing to live a good life in advance of their lifetime, will use the mortgage to enlarge the demand for housing.

For example, if the physical placement is 100 square meters for 100 square meters, the demand is not enlarged, but if it is monetized, one square meter is calculated at 10,000, 100 square is 1 million, and the ordinary people get 1 million in cash. Buying a house, most of them will not buy as much as the amount of cash in their hands, but will use the mortgage to pay the down payment. If 20%, the leverage is actually 5 times. If 30%, the leverage is more than 3 times. .

In other words, 1 million in cash can correspond to 5 million real estate or 3 million real estate, and the demand is inadvertently magnified 3-5 times. If this demand is released in a short period of time, the price of any place will be Pick up waves.

  What is the scale of monetary resettlement?

According to China Development Bank's statistics, since the central bank created the PSL mortgage supplementary loan in April 2014, the number of the previous years was 383.1 billion, 698.1 billion, 971.4 billion, and 635 billion. In the first half of 2018, the figure was nearly 500 billion, totaling 30,000. About 100 million, and PSL is mainly invested in three policy banks. CDB is only one of them, accounting for 66% and 48% respectively in 2016 and 2017. It can be seen that the overall size of PSL is considerable, so it is no wonder that some people put three The push for the rise in fourth-line housing prices is attributed to this PSL.

Of course, the reason why PSL has caused everyone to be onlookers is that PSL is based on the base currency. In the past three years, nearly 4 trillion yuan of base money has also provided a source of living water for a certain degree of liquidity. This is probably why M2 is in foreign exchange. There is still a reason for an increase of about 8.5% in the case of a small increase in the amount of RMB investment. Today, the reduction and suspension of PSL is the bottom line for de-leveraging.

By the way, PSL, the play is called "fat dead."

                (Editor: DF010)

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