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The three major reasons for the violent rebound on the last day of "6" have been identified! July really want to "turn over" it?

June 29, 2018 23:19
source: Volcanic wealth
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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After the close of the day, the volcano has a illusion of "returning to life", and the eyes can't help but faintly shed a tearful excitement...

  The market ended in June and fell continuously

Oh, exaggeration is exaggerated, but today's market is quite unexpected, quite awesome!Shanghai indexAfter a small opening, it habitually declined. At 10 o'clock, it hit a new low of 2782.38 points for 2 years and 1 month, just one step away from the stage low of 2780.76 on May 26, 2016.

When everyone sighed and patted the thigh, the Shanghai stock index went up abnormally and never looked back. It closed up 2.17%, regained 2800 points and 5-day moving average, and closed a low-end Zhongyang line. Judging from the one-day gains, it is the same as the increase in the gap on February 22 of the first trading day after the Spring Festival this year.

Today's Shanghai index time-sharing chart

After the red plate was received today, it was a pretty good ending for the bleak June market. Looking back at the so-called "six must" market, the volcano is also a bit of a snack: the Shanghai index in June, except for the barely upside of the previous trading days, the remaining 16 trading days are almost 45 degrees continuous on the daily K-line chart. Falling, successively fell below the 3100, 3000, 2900, 2800 four barriers, the biggest drop in June throughout the 350 points, a drop of 11%! And on June 19th, there was still a gap of more than 20 points.

Shanghai Stock Index's recent daily K-line chart

Judging from the single-month decline in recent years, this June is also quite simple: the actual decline is 8.01%, second only to the 22.65% monthly decline in January 2016. In other words, this June drop has hit a new high of 2 years and 4 months!

  The three most recent positives support the violent rebound of the broader market

Well, after reviewing the bleakness of the "six musts", the questions that everyone is most concerned about now must be: First, why did the market suddenly violently rebound? 2. Has the previous downturn been over? If you come to an end, which stocks are worth paying attention to?

The volcano first tried to answer the first question. Aside from the fact that the technical downswing has continued to fall, with the oversold rebound momentum, Volcano believes that today's rebound is more affected by the news, and the benefits come from three aspects:

1. About 19 o'clock yesterday, the Chinese peoplebankOn the official website, a piece of news was published on the "Ministerial Committee of the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee held in the second quarter of 2018". It is worth noting that this sentence: "The sound monetary policy remains neutral, and it is necessary to be moderate and manage the money supply. The gates maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity and guide the reasonable growth of the scale of money and credit and social financing." Compared with the statement on liquidity in the “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report” issued by the central bank in the first quarter of this year, it changed from “keeping liquidity to be reasonably stable” to “maintaining sufficient liquidity”.

Image from: Central Bank official website

The wording is only a difference of two words. For A-shares suffering from lack of liquidity, it is undoubtedly a burning fire of hope. It is well known that A-shares are capital-driven markets and are directly affected by liquidity. The expected liquidity has changed from “stable” to “sufficient”, which is obviously a big plus for consecutively falling A-shares.

2. Today, a media quoted a “informed person close to the regulatory layer” as saying: “The Shanghai Composite IndexBelow 3000 points, the possibility of restarting the CDR is not very high. At the same time, the person also said that according to the current regulatory thinking, the ideal state is to run smoothly after the market recovers to 3200-3500 points for a period of time. Opportunity to launch CDR.

Of course, this news has not been verified and can only be treated as rumors. At the press conference of the China Securities Regulatory Commission after the close today, a reporter asked: The capital market has news that if the Shanghai index is below 3,000 points, the CSRC will not promote the CDR. Is it true? The CSRC responded by saying that it does not make any evaluation of market performance, but the CDR work will continue to advance in accordance with the regulations. In the opinion of the volcano, at least the CSRC’s statement that “the CDR is not issued under 3000 points” is not explicitly denied.

As we all know, the recent CDR issue has a significant effect on the diversion of funds in the A-share market. Although the news today is not finally confirmed, it is certainly a good one for the A-shares that lack funds.

3. There are reports today that hundreds of listed companies' major shareholders, actual controllers or directors have announced their plans to increase their holdings or increase their holdings during the six trading days from June 19 to 27. At the same time, 41 listed companies have issued announcements on the 19th that they are implementing or planning to buy back shares. In addition, from the valuation point of view, the horizontal and vertical ratio of A shares are currently at a low level. At present, the overall valuation of A shares is about 16 times, lower than the historical average of 18 times, and the earnings per share is the highest level in the past 10 years. . Finally, the recent northward funds have increased the holdings of 146 MSCI constituents.

This has been said many times before, the market continued to fall, but industrial capital and foreign capital have bought in reverse, which undoubtedly released a very benign signal.

With the above three favorable support, it is not surprising that today's A-share violent rebound is justified.

  Is the market down? Which stocks are worthy of attention?

Ok, Volcano is coming back to try to answer the second question: Has the previous downturn been over? If it comes to an end, which stocks are worthy of attention?

First of all, it is still too early to conclude whether the decline is over. This is because:

1. Although the market rebounded strongly on the 5-day moving average, but only one day, whether it can really stand still on the 5-day moving average still needs to be observed for at least three days. It is only possible to stabilize the 5-day moving average to be a rebound;

2. Today's market rebounded, the transaction volume did not increase significantly correspondingly, indicating that the funds in the market have not been significantly invested, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has not weakened. In the later period, when the “quantity and price increase” occurs, it can be characterized as a rebound;

3. From the Shanghai K's weekly K line, it has been falling for 6 weeks, and there is no sign of recovery. Even if the short-term rebound, it will remain in the K-line level for the time being. Whether you can achieve a truly effective rebound on the weekly K line, you need to continue to observe.

Then, we temporarily define this rebound as a small oversold rebound on the K-line level. In the process of this rebound, Volcano recommends to observe these two aspects: First, whether the market can stop falling depends on the weight of the white horse stocks; Second, whether the broader market can continue to rebound depends on the small and medium-sized stocks.

The first aspect does not need to be explained: the weight of the white horse stocks directly affects the trend of the market index, and in the process of this rapid decline, the weight of the white horse stocks did not appear as a feat of last year, even this week, even this week There have also been cases in which strong stocks such as banks have quickly made up for the decline, further accelerating the rate of decline in the broader market. Therefore, in order to effectively rebound in the broader market, the white horse stocks will be the first to stabilize and play a role in stabilizing the military.

The second aspect can say a few more words: the representative of the small and medium-sized concept stocks -GEMThe number - actually hit a recent low before the Shanghai index, and also rebounded 5 trading days ahead of the Shanghai index.

Recent GEM refers to the daily K-line chart

Judging from the recent K-line chart of the GEM, the GEM index has recently fallen very fast, but on June 22, it has explored its recent lows, and then continually rebounded around the 5-day moving average, and the Shanghai index is still today. Only temporarily can be considered to have explored the recent low rebound. Obviously, the GEM refers to the running time ahead of the Shanghai Stock Index.

In addition, from today's rising stocks, it is also mainly concentrated in the small and medium-sized stocks. Judging from the increase in the concept sector, it is also a full-scale outbreak of technology stocks.

Today's two cities, various concept sectors rose ranking

The small and medium-sized stocks rebounded ahead of the market, which means that the effective rebound of the market is still dependent on the rebound of the small and medium-sized stocks to maintain market sentiment. If the small and medium-sized stocks rebounded twice, they will definitely hit the market sentiment that has just recovered a bit. It is entirely possible that the market will turn around again.

Ok, today the volcano will talk to you here. Beginning next week, it will enter the trading hours of July. The so-called "five poor six and seven turn over" spells will run to the last part of the reassuring. Can A-shares make a turnaround in July? Let us keep looking forward to it!

                (Original title: "6 absolutely" The three major reasons for the violent rebound on the last day have been identified! July really wants to "turn over"? The "face" of such key stocks must be seen!)

                (Editor: DF309)

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