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The US economy is moving toward a sovereign debt crisis. It is more and more like Greece.

November 08, 2018 21:00
source: BWC Chinese Network
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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In accordance with internationalMonetary FundOrganization (IMF) and the worldbankLong-term theory, etc., the total debt deficit of an economyGDPThe warning value of the ratio is 65%, and the debt level of most developed markets in the world basically exceeds this level. The reason behind this is that developed markets are accustomed to pampering and relying heavily on borrowing habits.

The European debt crisis staged by the "European Pig Five" symbolized by Greece was caused by a huge imbalance between the huge debt deficit and economic growth. For example, the ratio of Italian debt to GDP, which still has no debt distress, is about 130%. In fact, the US economy is even worse by the total debt of the economy and the ratio of GDP to GDP.

 

We know that as of now, the US federal debt settlement has exceeded the $21.7 trillion mark, which is the highest debt data in the world. Some readers will think that the United States is the world's largest economy, so this debt is not surprising, but people often overlook the United States federal debt and GDP ratio has reached 106%.

InAmerican FinanceAccording to the website Zerohod, "If we have a $50 trillion economy, these debts are no problem, because the ratio of US federal debt to GDP is about 40%. But the fact is, we don't have 50 trillion. The total economic volume of the US dollar. We have an economic aggregate of about 20 trillion US dollars, which means that the US debt is much larger than the economic aggregate." We analyze that according to this standard, the US debt dilemma and the current "Europe" The Five Pigs are no different. So why did the US economy not have a large-scale debt crisis before?

This is closely related to the status of the US dollar as the king of the global currency. The US economy has increased its deficit budget year after year for more than half a century. It is precisely because the US debt is regarded as a core asset of the US dollar. The significance of the global important investment targets. The United States federally passes through debts and easily passes on and conceals the annual deficit risk. However, the biggest premise is that under the premise that the US dollar credit is widely recognized, once the US dollar credit weakens and the US debt is no longer favored by global investors, the US economy's deficit “bottom card” will be unveiled.

Obviously, the US federal debt deficit is not optimistic, because in June-August this year, several major buyers of US debt have concentrated on reducing US debt, including the US Federal Reserve, China, Japan, Germany, Russia and other US debt holdings. Some. Judging by the total of over 2 trillion US dollars of debt held by China and Japan, the two largest foreign holders of US debt, this is almost the lowest level of relative share in the past 13 years.

Paradoxically, in the process of global investors withdrawing from the US debt assets, the US federal government still increases the deficit budget unrestrainedly, and the US Treasury Department has been pushing for it.Additional issuanceNew debt. The growth rate of the US debt deficit in the past year and more in the past year is evident.

This means that the number of US debts circulating in the market is increasing. According to the reverse index of the yield, the yield of US bonds will continue to be high, and the actual transaction price of US bonds will be much lower than the nominal price. At present, the 30-year US bond yield and the 2-year US bond yield spread once expanded to a three-month high, and the 10-year yield has been the highest since May 2011.

Trends in the yield of US bond yields with different maturities

It is worth noting that the current 106% of US federal debt and GDP is at the highest level in the history of the US economy. Of course, the years in the mid-1940s are not counted. However, at that time, the US economy and the US dollar were winning. At the top of the world, the global economy is eager for the dollar. Today, it is clear that it is going downhill. The US debt and the US dollar are entering the edge channel of being “discarded”.

Economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have studied global economic history surveys for a few decades, examining the debt situation and impact of some economies. Once the ratio of debt to GDP is reached, 90% means that the economy will have a turning point. Zerohedge reported that the US economy is moving toward a sovereign debt crisis, and it is more and more like Greece. This is not a subjective delusion of an economist, but a true number.

In fact, the US economy is also relatively simple to get rid of the debt crisis. For example, the Fed can open the QE printing machine, but this may bring about a deeper level of inflation. You know, the Fed has printed about 4 trillion US dollars in the past few years. It has produced countless dollar asset prices. Today, these are being staged in the free fall movement. Otherwise, the US economy will stage large-scale inflation, and the dollar green paper will become more and more "not worth the money."

In other words, today's Fed, when faced with uncontrolled borrowing by the US economy, can't do anything about it. For the long-term protection of US dollar credit and “gold content”, the Fed may have to continue to push forward the US dollar interest rate hike cycle beginning at the end of 2015.

Billionaire investor JimRogersThe insistence is that under the weight of huge debts, the United States faces a crisis that is even more serious than the 2008 financial tsunami. Affected by the high valuation of US debt and US stocks, dollar assets may become a complete threat. Billionaire Ray Dario, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, said that the current US economic situation is developing in accordance with the script of the Great Depression in the United States, and the United States may have a debt crisis "a few years later."

(Article source: BWC Chinese website)

                (Original title: After the US and Japan reduced the US debt, foreign media: the US economy or the sovereign debt crisis is more and more like Greece)

                (Editor: DF134)

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