At 3 am Beijing time on Friday, the Fed will announce the November FOMCinterest rateresolution. Since there is no press conference this time, it is widely expected that there will be no interest rate hikes, and the focus will be on the resolution statement.GoldmanIt is pointed out whether the Fed will mention that the US stock market sell-off in October will determine the prospects of risky assets.
According to the Bloomberg survey, all economists believe that the Fed will not raise interest rates in this resolution, and after raising interest rates three times during the year, the next rate hike will appear in December. At the same time, the expectation of raising interest rates at the end of the year has been digested by the market. In 2019 and 2020, it is expected to continue to raise interest rates three times and once. By 2021, the target range of the dot map will be between 3.25 and 3.50%. In other words, this round of Fed rate hike cycle will not stop until 2020.
Recently announcedUS economic dataShow that the Fed has good reason to continue its hawkish operations. In the recent non-agricultural days, the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7%, and the average hourly wage has increased by 3.1% year-on-year.GDPThe growth rate is 3.5%.
The chart below shows the detailed performance of recent US economic data:
There will be no press conferences at this resolution, and there will be no central bank to update the economic expectations. Only monetary policy statements will be provided. Goldman Sachs believes that there are two aspects worthy of attention. First, after the US stock market fell by about 8%, whether the Fed will respond directly or indirectly; Second, if the economic action can slow down, the Fed declares how to make fine adjustments.
For the prospect of raising interest rates, Goldman Sachs is very radical. “We expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 4-5 times by the end of 2019. The risk of a longer and steeper rate hike cycle is huge, although this risk is still under control.”
The US dollar index fluctuated widely on Wednesday, and it did not rise or fall until the close. If the resolution tonight provides a more obvious signal of inclination, it may bring vitality to the relatively dull foreign exchange market.
(Article source: Huizhong Information)