Beijing time tomorrow at 3 am, the Fed will announce Novemberinterest rateThe resolution, although the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates at this meeting, it is still a major risk to the market this week.
Since there will be no press conferences this time, the focus of the market is basically on the conference statement, and the Fed’s attitude towards the downturn in the stock market in October is also an urgent need of the market.
In addition, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates in December is very large, and its impact has basically been fully accounted for. And in 2019 and 2020, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times.
Gold has fallen back this week, and the next trend will be greatly affected by the signals given by the Fed's resolution.
The recently released economic data basically supports the Fed to continue raising interest rates.
In the non-agricultural report released last week, the unemployment rate stabilized at 3.7%, while the hourly wage increased by 3.1% year-on-year, the highest salary increase in the cycle.
Goldman(Goldman Sachs) believes that the US economy will continue this trend, the Fed may give a more positive statement, paving the way for a rate hike in December.
The focus of this focus is basically on the Fed’s statement. Goldman Sachs believes that this can mainly focus on whether the Fed will mention the recent market volatility and other issues.
In addition, the Fed's attitude toward the financial situation is also worthy of attention, but Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed is unlikely to change its wording on financial development.
Although the Fed is very sensitive to the significant financial austerity, we believe that if the dress is stressed, it will give a signal of too dovish, especially if there is still strong growth.
Rate hike path
Goldman Sachs believes that due to the tightening of its financial conditions index, growth will be affected next year, and the growth rate will be slow, the Fed rate hike will slow down. The bank is expected to raise interest rates five times before the end of next year may be relatively small.
(Article source: Gold headline)