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Even the Fed is lost! Economic data stoppage hinders interest rate hike prospects

January 11, 2019 14:51
source: Global Forex

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According to reports, the US government partially stopped at a critical moment, which made it more difficult for the Fed officials, investors, trade negotiators and others to judge the economic situation.

The US Department of Commerce's Census Bureau and the Economic Analysis do not release data during the government's closure; some key data from other economic institutions will also be released. This means that the national factory order data originally scheduled for release this Monday and the US trade data released on Tuesday have to be "jumped."

And then, Friday's federal budget deficit report may also stop, even next week's retail sales, commercial inventory and new housing starts data, and the fourth quarter of the month.GDPdata.

These reports help Fed officials and traders judge consumer spending, the housing market,international tradeAnd overall economic performance. Without these reports, the Fed officials and traders will reduce the information base for research and judgment, which may lead to policy errors or market volatility.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a speech on Monday that "the real-time data we receive will be reduced, which will make our work more difficult."

The Fed is facing enormous challenges at the moment. The central bank raised interest rates four times last year, but in recent weeks it has hinted that due to economic uncertainty, the pace of interest rate hikes may be suspended.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and others have recently stressed that the Fed's interest rate hike depends on the performance of economic data, often using "data-based" to describe their considerations. However, the lack of current data has forced them to "blind people."

Like the Fed, treasury bonds, stocks and foreign exchange traders will also analyze daily economic data to find clues about the pace of economic growth or the path of interest rate hikes. Over the past few months, fears of a slowdown in global economic growth have plagued financial markets, and the major US stock indexes suffered the biggest annual decline since the financial crisis in 2018. Investors are also concerned about whether trade disputes are affecting the US economy.

(Article source: Global Forex Network)

                (Editor: DF134)

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