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The yen is "loved" Will the spring of gold be far behind?

January 11, 2019 17:50
source: Gold headline

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Since the end of last year, the yen has performed well and the USD/JPY has fallen below the 110 mark. As the yen restarts its appreciation trend,fundManagers believe that USD/JPY will hit 100 mark

  Deutsche BankIt is expected that by the end of the year, USD/JPY is likely to fall to the 100 mark, and the bank maintains the recommendation to short the USD/JPY.

Deutsche Bank including George SaravelosAnalystThink: "Although the trend of the last round of inflation has basically subsided, we believe that the driving factor of the yen's strength is far more than this. The structural shift of Japanese investor behavior (from reducing the hedge to increasing) will be supported this year. Yuan. The fair value of the yen is expected to be close to 100."

A little different from German silver, French agricultureCreditbank(Credit Agricole SA) believes that USD/JPY will approach 100 or even below this level by 2020.

Russell Investments Ltd. also pointed out that this situation is more likely to occur in 2020, and the risk of economic recession will be higher next year. The company expects USD/JPY to fall to 102 by the end of the year.

Russell InvestmentcurrencyAnd Lun Luu, head of fixed income research, said: "If the US economy is severely slowed, and the market is aware of the Fedinterest rateTo reach the peak, it would be very likely that the USD/JPY would fall to the 100 level. ”

Earlier, the media quoted Kazuo Momma, former director of the Bank of Japan, as saying that the yen may continue to strengthen in the context of the global economic slowdown and continued trade friction. It is also possible that the USD/JPY will fall to 100 in the next few months. of.

It is worth noting that both the yen and gold are used as safe-haven assets, and there is a certain relationship between the two. Generally speaking, gold and the yen move in sync.

The last time the USD/JPY was below 100 or it appeared in 2016, when the price of gold was around $1,360.

Russell Silberston, portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management, said that 100 is a key level and that risk aversion is at a high level when it reaches that level in 2016.

(Article source: Gold headline)

                (Editor: DF134)

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