Whether the Fed raises interest rates in 2019, and may raise interest rates several times has become the focus of market attention. As many Fed officials collectively release pigeons, the parties seem to have high expectations for the Fed's 2019 rate hike. Huitong Xiaobian will organize the latest views of relevant institutions as follows:
1 Netherlandsbank: The hawks have already surrendered, and the Fed will not raise interest rates again in 2019.
In November 2018, the Dutch bank also expected the Fed to raise interest rates twice in 2019. However, the bank has now changed its view.
The Dutch bank now believes that the Fed’s interest rate hike in December 2018 is no longer expected in 2019, given that some of the hawkish members of the FOMC are now turning their pigeons.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted on January 10 that in the context of financial market turmoil, the US and the global economic slowdown, the Fed may cut its expectations for two interest rate hikes in 2019. St. Louis Fed President Brad said his biggest concern for the economy was that policymakers raised interest rates excessively. Brad is worried that the Fed is on the verge of a policy failure. If the future is over-tightening and significantly reverses the yield curve, it may face economic downturn. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali believes that the continued growth of the US labor market and the signal of a global economic slowdown will allow the Fed to raise interest rates slightly and see how the economy changes. When asked about the Fed's shrinking hawkish stance, Kashkari said he has been opposed to further rate hikes in the past few years, as the labor market may be more slack as Americans continue to enter the job market.
Bill Diviney, a senior economist at ABN Amro, pointed out in a report that comments by Fed officials in recent weeks have further confirmed that FOMC's position has clearly turned to doves. This position is not only reflected in the leadership of the centrist, but also in the hawks.
The Dutch bank said that the financial environment tightened by the stock market decline and the slowdown in global economic growth has changed the attitude of the Fed.However, it seems unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2019, and if it wants to turn loose, the threshold is also very high.
The Dutch bank pointed out in the report that in order for the Fed to regain its interest rate hike, either the economic growth rate needs to be much higher than the potential growth level of about 1.8%, or the core inflation shows signs of sustained acceleration.
It should be noted that Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on January 9 that the Fed's next move may be to raise interest rates or cut interest rates. Just two days ago, he predicted that the Fed would only raise interest rates once in 2019.
2 beforeJPMorganBanker: The Fed will raise interest rates twice in 2019
Former Morgan Journey banker Bart Broadman pointed out that the Fed has improved twice in 2019.interest rateSpace, putting pressure on riskier assets such as stocks and bonds. He said investors are too pessimistic about US economic growth and the trade situation. In 2019, the world's largest economy should expand at a rate of around 2%. The US economy has a long way to go from recession. Investors will see the Fed raise interest rates twice in 2019, which will continue to put some pressure on assets.
3IMF Former Vice President: The Fed will not raise interest rates significantly in 2019, paying attention to structural changes in the market
Zhu Min, dean of the National Finance Research Institute of Tsinghua University, former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, and former vice president of the IMF, said that in 2019, the US dollarinterest rateThe move will no longer be the determining factor in the global economy. He predicted that the Fed will not raise interest rates sharply in 2019. The interest rate level, exchange rate level and capital flow level of the US dollar are expected to be in a relatively moderate state. Structural changes in the entire financial market have become more important. He also said that more attention should be paid to the structural changes in financial markets in 2019. Since the crisis, banks have gradually become healthier, butInsuranceThe industry weakened and entered a comprehensive dilemma.
4Deutsche Bank: Strong data will prompt the Fed to continue raising interest rates in 2019
Deutsche Bank said that although in DecemberCPIThe report may not change the market's perception of the prospect of a recent rate hike, but if the various uncertainties are eliminated, strong data will allow the Fed to continue raising interest rates in 2019. The bank expects the US core CPI rate to rise by 0.3% in December, with an annual rate of 2.2%.
Latest federalfundIt is predicted that the Fed will have the highest probability of raising interest rates on July 31, 2019, but only 19%. At the last interest rate decision on December 11, 2019, the Fed’s rate hike was only 15.8%.
(Article source: Huitong.com)