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Nine investment banks look forward to January non-agricultural government closure is not fatal but can not be ignored!

February 01, 2019 15:48
source: Huitong Net

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At 21:30 on February 1st, Beijing time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a series of January economic data, including seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment changes, unemployment rate, average hourly wage monthly rate and annual rate, labor participation. rate. In the United States in December 2018, the number of non-agricultural employment was very strong, reaching 312,000. However, most economists and researchers expect that the US non-agricultural data will be relatively weak in January, only increasing by 100,000 to 174,000. In addition, they expect the US unemployment rate to fall back to 3.8-4.0%.

It is worth noting that this non-agricultural data is more concerned than ever because the US government is closed. The US government closed down for 35 days at the end of December, causing 800,000 employees in 15 departments to be affected, and finally had to take unpaid leave. However, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not include this part of the vacation staff in the unemployed population, so non-agricultural workers in January will not fall as a cliff-like decline as previously speculated. If the US non-farm is still positive in January, this will be the 100th consecutive month of growth, the longest growth time in history. No, the closure of the US government will still have a certain impact. The non-agricultural data in January is not as strong as it was in December 2018.

As the announcement time approaches, more and more institutions have released their forecasts for non-agricultural data such as January in the United States. The summary of Huitong.com is summarized as follows:

RanSquawk lists Wall Street's expectations for US economic data for January:

Non-agricultural employment: 165,000, the previous value of 312,000;

Unemployment rate: 3.9%, former value 3.9% (FOMC expects the US unemployment rate to be 3.5% by the end of 2019, and the long-term unemployment rate is 4.4%)

US average hourly wage rate in January: 3.2%, the previous value of 3.2%

US average monthly hourly wage rate in January: 0.3%, the previous value of 0.4%

The average weekly working hours in the United States in January: 34.5 hours, the previous value of 34.5 hours

New employment in the private sector: 170,000, the previous value of 301,000

New employment in manufacturing: 17,000, 32,000

New employment in the government: the previous value of 11,000

U6 unemployment rate: the previous value of 7.6%

Labor force participation rate: the previous value is 63.1%

Latest predictions from nine major investment banks in the world

1 TD Securities: 150,000 non-agricultural increase in January

TD Securities expects that after the US non-farm payrolls data surged 312,000 in December, it will fall back to 150,000 in January. After three consecutive months of strong employment growth, there is still room for growth in the manufacturing employment population. The Fed’s survey shows that manufacturing employment has experienced some weakness. In addition, after the strong recruitment momentum during the holiday period (November to December), employment in the retail industry may also pick up.

Conversely, family surveys may also show that the US employment signal is further weakened as the government continues to shut down and federal employees are on vacation. In fact, TD expects the unemployment rate in January to reflect this, the highest unemployment rate can reach 4.0%, while wages will maintain growth momentum, hourly wages monthly rate and annual rate of 0.3% and 3.2%.

Given the impact of government closures, the release of non-farm payrolls data in January was particularly troublesome for the foreign exchange market. Therefore, TD tends to believe that in terms of the reaction of the foreign exchange market, the market may be prepared for data that is less than expected. The agency is more concerned about the ISM data released later that day, which is a barometer of the Fed's recent concerns.

2NBF: Non-agricultural increase of more than 100,000 in January

Although the number of jobless claims continues to hover near record lows in early January, NBF expects US non-farm payrolls to be disappointing in January, slightly higher than 100,000, partly because the US government closed and because of January 2018. The non-agricultural data is very strong and needs to be retreated now.

If, as NBF believes, household surveys show a modest increase in US employment, the unemployment rate may fall by a percentage point to 3.8%.

3Dutch International: Non-agricultural increase of 140,000 in January

Dutch International expects US employment growth in 2019 to be lower than 2018. The agency pointed out that the US economy faces more resistance, such as weaker support for fiscal stimulus,interest rateThe rising lag effect, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the continuing concern about trade protectionism at a time when external demand is weak. This may mean that recruitment in the US may slow down in 2019.

The agency also pointed out that a larger constraint in the short term is the lack of workers available for employment. According to a report by the National Association of Independent Businesses, 39% of small US businesses have job vacancies that cannot be filled, the highest rate in more than 40 years. The Fed’s latest Beige Book states that the labor market in all regions of the United States is “tight” and that companies are struggling to find workers of any skill level, so the unemployment rate in the United States is at its lowest level in 49 years. Overall, Dutch International predicts that the number of non-agricultural workers in the United States will increase by 140,000 in January, which is generally expected by economists to 165,000.

In addition, the Netherlands International expects the average monthly wage rate in January in the United States to be 0.3%, which is in line with expectations, and this will keep the annual rate at 3.2%. The unemployment rate is the only disappointing data in the US employment report for December. Due to the increase in labor force participation rate, the US unemployment rate in December 2018 rose from 3.7% (the lowest level since December 1969) to 3.9%, but this data tends to fluctuate, and the Netherlands International is expected to partially reverse. To the level of 3.8%.

4 WestThe Pacific Oceanbank: Non-agricultural increase of 150,000 in January

  WestpacIt is pointed out that the non-agricultural employment population in the United States in December was very, very strong, reaching 312,000 (an increase of 58,000 from the previous two months), but this was basically ignored by the financial market. This is because, at about the same time, ISM data is disappointing and, more importantly, Fed Chairman Powellinterest rateThe outlook raises a more cautious view.

Although the US non-agricultural data for December is 100,000 higher than the monthly average of 2018, the bank has reason to expect a fall in January, only an increase of 150,000. There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of the US government's closure on employment data. Although the government's closure will not affect the number of people employed, it may increase the number of unemployed people due to temporary layoffs.

5Canadian Imperial Commercial Bank: Unemployment rate rose to 4% in January

The Imperial Bank of Canada pointed out that under normal circumstances, the increase of 174,000 jobs in the United States is enough to bring downward pressure on the unemployment rate. However, since this indicator is based on another survey, the workers in the survey are listed as Unemployed, the unemployment rate may temporarily rise to 4.0%. The bank also predicts that the average monthly wage rate in the United States is 0.2%, resulting in an annual rate of more than 3%.

The bank believes that although the January data shows the temporary impact of the government's suspension, the potential growth momentum indicates that the US economy will continue to grow in the coming months, and the labor market will grow healthily, with gold age employment and population. The ratio is still below the pre-recession level.

6 Danish banks: average hourly wage rate of 0.25% per month

The Danish bank believes that the average monthly wage rate in the United States in January is 0.25%, which means that the annual rate has dropped from 3.2% to 3.1%.

The bank expects the unemployment rate in the United States to rise as the government closes because it is believed that household surveys as a source of unemployment are likely to treat vacation workers as unemployed.

In the total payroll, the leave workers are counted as the employed population. However, due to the government's lockout, the total employment data may be somewhat distorted. The Danish bank said it will closely monitor the employment situation of the unaffected private sector.

7Goldman: Unemployment rate rose to 4% in January

Goldman Sachs pointed out that weather factors may cause US non-farm payrolls to soar in December. It is worth noting that the climate in January was also relatively warm and dry.

Goldman Sachs expects the US unemployment rate to rise by one-tenth in January, reaching 4.0%, mainly because the US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to define the temporary vacation of nearly 400,000 federal employees as “unemployed layoffs”. In addition, Goldman Sachs expects the US hourly rate in January to be 0.2%, with an annual rate of 3.1%.

8BarclaysBank: Non-agricultural increase of 160,000 in January

Barclays Bank expects the US nonfarm payroll population to increase by 160,000 in January. However, in household surveys, leave workers will be classified as “temporary unemployed” people. Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects the US unemployment rate to rise to 4.0% in January.

Barclays also expects the average monthly wage rate in the United States in January to be 0.3%, with an annual rate of 3.2%, while the average weekly working hours will remain unchanged at 34.5 hours.

9 NordicUnion Bank: US unemployment rate data may bottom out, but salary growth may still be higher than expected

NordicUnion BankIt is said that government closure may distort data from the scale of labor to wages. While public workers on vacation do not count as unemployed, the indirect impact on private contractors (working for the public sector) can be enormous.

However, the bank is still concerned about the unemployment rate in the United States, because some of the more pessimistic indicators have begun to imply that the unemployment rate will soon bottom out. The bank's main point is that the tightening of the labor market will drive wage growth (higher than expected), and this view has not changed.

(Article source: Huitong.com)

                (Editor: DF134)

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