Golden Pig Yingchun, Pig Year Naji... Today is the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday in the Chinese market. With the return of investors, the market transaction of the Year of the Pig will officially kick off. It is worth mentioning that in the festive atmosphere of the Chinese Lunar New Year, the global market has not been calm in the past week. The US dollar index is the best single-week performance in the past six months. Below we may wish to take stock of the following stocks you missed during the Spring Festival holiday!
☆ Spring Festival holiday global market review: the US dollar hits the best single-week performance in half a year!
In the just-concluded Lunar New Year holiday, the dollar has undoubtedly become a big winner in the international market - the dollar against a basketcurrencyLast Friday, I took seven consecutive years and recorded sixThe week with the strongest performance in the month, as traders worried that the global economy is weakening, they have bought the dollar to hedge.
Quotes data show last weekIntercontinental exchangeThe US dollar index rose 1.1%, the largest weekly gain since the week of August 10, 2018, when it rose 1.28%. The euro against the dollar recorded the largest weekly decline in more than four months, as data showed that the European economic slowdown is spreading.
Analysts pointed out that concerns about the growing global economic growth prospects provide a safe-haven attraction for the dollar, which is usually unique to currencies such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc, because the US economy is still stable. At least for now.
"Last year, the dollar's rise across the board has regained momentum. The US economy has grown steadily while overseas economies have lost momentum." Western Union Business Solutions Advanced MarketAnalystJoe Manimbo said.
The European Commission cut its forecast for economic growth and inflation in the euro zone on Thursday, as industrial orders in Germany and Spain unexpectedly fell, raising concerns about a slowing economic slowdown. These data put pressure on the local bond market. Core European government bond yields hit a two-year minimum. The German bond yield of the indicator is only 10 basis points away from zero.
While the dollar is rising, the renminbi is under pressure. Since February, the onshore/offshore RMB has continued to fall against the US dollar. Since the Spring Festival holiday, the offshore RMB against the US dollar has fallen below the three levels of 6.76, 6.77, and 6.78.
Global stock marketDuring the Chinese New Year holiday, performance was mixed.Driven by improved economic data and the release of dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, US stocksNasdaqThe S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose 1.9%, 1.6% and 1.5% respectively in the previous trading day; the other stock indexes, the Frankfurt DAX index fell 3.3%.Hang Seng IndexThe gain was 1.4% and the Nikkei 225 index fell 2.1%.
In the commodity market,With the name of the United Statesinterest rateDownstream, driving the actualinterest rateFalling back, etc., gold rose 1.1% last week to $ 1,318 / ounce; and by the increase in crude oil inventories, WTI crude oil fell 1.8% to 52.7 US dollars / barrel.
It is worth mentioning thatValeThe mine dam operating license was revoked and iron ore prices experienced a crazy rise last week. From February 4th to February 8th, Singapore's SGX iron ore FE04 contract rose from 82.5 to a maximum of 91.70 US dollars, an increase of 10%. At the same time, from January 18 to February 5, the Baltic Dry Index fell for 13 days, a drop of nearly 42%. Compared with the four-year high of 1747, which was set in July last year, the cumulative decline was nearly 60%, hitting a two-year low.
☆ More risk events are coming soon in the first week after the festival: this currency has been shocked!
This week will be the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday, investors will usher in many key risk events, economic data, the United StatesCPIAnd retail sales will be highly concerned. In addition, the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, the Brexit and the US government's suspension risk are also the focus of the market.
The US government may stop again this Friday. According to reports, according to US lawmakers and assistants, the congressional negotiations aimed at preventing the government from re-arranging and revolving around the border wall budget broke down on Saturday night at local time. The Republican Party and the Democratic Party have temporarily stopped communicating, and this is a threat to the prospect of reaching an agreement when time is running out.
People familiar with the matter said that the border barrier funds raised by negotiators on Saturday were between $1.3 billion and $2 billion. This is far below the $5.7 billion that Trump requires. If the funding agreement is not reached, the nine federal government agencies and related agencies will close again after a record 35 days of lockout a few weeks ago.
US President Trump was on a SaturdayTwitterZhong said that if the Democrats did not give him all the money required to build a wall, he might take administrative action to build it. Trump signed the temporary spending bill on January 25 to allow the government to reopen, but he only agreed to maintain the US federal government until February 15.
Interestingly, before the arrival of a series of risk events this week, the currency market had experienced a big market in the first round on Monday. Around 6 am on Monday morning in Beijing time, the Swiss franc was abnormal during the opening period of extremely low liquidity. fluctuation. Among them, the US dollar against the Swiss franc once rose 0.9% to break through 1.01, and then quickly fell back to the 0.9990 line.
The Swiss franc cross is also up and down.
According to traders' analysis, the reason for the flash crash was that traders used the lack of liquidity in the morning market to sell the Swiss franc against the US dollar, the euro and the yen, and triggered a series of stop-loss orders.
Anil Panchal, an analyst at Fxstreet, said that during the Asian morning's opening session, the Swiss franc was flashing, and the US dollar against the Swiss franc rose 0.9% to 1.0096, then quickly fell back. This situation was not caused by fundamental news or technical operations. It was due to the lack of liquidity in the Asian market during the early trading hours. In addition, Japan was closed, and some traders used the opportunity to perform stop-loss operations. It should be noted that such large fluctuations generally reverse the current gains or losses in a short period of time.
(Article source: Global Forex)