In the past Chinese New Year holiday, the gold market suffered a blow. The price of gold was very close to the support of the $1300/oz mark, and the upward trend was blocked.
In the past few trading days, the gold market first formed a bearish shooting star form, followed by a cross star form, showing signs of a reversal of the trend.
In addition, the RSI rose to above 70, which also confirmed that gold may have peaked and is about to come to an amendment.
In the last trading day of January, spot gold prices hit a level of $1326.32 per ounce, a fresh nine-month high. Previously, the Fed wasinterest rateThe doves sent out in the resolution boosted the price of gold, but after January, the performance of non-agricultural data in the United States was eye-catching and gold fell.
AnalystP Radomski believes that the gold's upward action may have been insufficient, and there will be a more substantial fall.
In the silver market, its reversal trend is more obvious.
Silver prices have risen to the highest level in more than six months before, but after similar to the gold market, there has also been a fall.
Radomski believes that this is very similar to the performance in early 2018, when silver prices peaked and then began to fall.
However, from the current trend of silver prices, it will be a chance to buy on dips, and then it is likely to usher in a rebound.
Radomski believes that the wholePrecious metalThe market has seen a top high at the beginning of February, and the next trend reversal may occur at the end of June.
Investors need to be concerned that the weekly RSI hit a level of 70, indicating that gold will fall sharply. In addition, the recent gold market is less liquid, lower than the first half of 2018, which has been trading down.
Radomski pointed out that from the trend of the market last year, it was the gold in the beginning of February that there were two top levels, and it was only in the middle of the year that the second trend reversal occurred. The second reversal of the silver market occurred in late April and early May.
After that, the silver market continued to fall, so at present, the silver price may also show a significant decline.
Radomski believes that all the signs indicate that the precious metals and the US dollar market may have a relatively large market in the next three weeks. The US dollar index has three reversal signals, two in the gold market, two in the silver market and one in the gold mining stock market. One.
From the correlation between gold and the US dollar, there have been very close correlations between the two. Among them, after the end of 2013, gold appeared to rise, after that in February 2015 and August 2016, gold fell to the top.
At present, gold and the US dollar have a greater correlation, so this is also a signal that the reversal is coming.
Looking at the ratio between gold mining stocks and gold, Radomski pointed out that this ratio failed to confirm the rebound in gold after hitting the bottom in August last year. Looking back at the rebound in 2016 after the gold touched the bottom in late 2015, this reflects a huge difference from the 2018 gold recovery. Although this is not necessarily a bearish signal, it is by no means a bullish signal.
Overall, the gold market will continue to bear multiple pressures, and the shorts may gradually exert pressure to suppress the price of gold.
(Article source: Gold headline)