Go to dollar, let international reservescurrencyDiversification has become the consensus of many countries. Currently, Russia, the European Union, and China are working hard in this area.
However, the market is telling a different story. Since the Fed’s January meeting, the dollar has risen by nearly 1%, erasing all of its 2019 decline. From the perspective of the options market, the outlook is actually getting better and better. If the dollar strengthens against other major currencies in the next three months, then the contract price of the appreciation will be close to the highest level since mid-December 2018, relative to the hedging instrument against falling.
This is in stark contrast to analysts' expectations. It is worth noting that, according to the median forecast compiled by Bloomberg, analysts expect the dollar to fall 2.7% against the euro by June 30, 2019.
Some analysts pointed out that people who hold a negative view of the US dollar may focus on the global “de-dollarization” process.
Russia’s "Kommersant" published an article entitled "The Law of the Sanctions Period" on January 10, saying that the Russian central bank has publicly disclosed the changes in its holdings of gold and foreign currencies. From July 2017 to June 2018, the Russian central bank abide by the Putin government's policy of dollarization. The proportion of dollar assets has fallen by half, from 43.7% to 21.9% today, while the renminbi and euro share have been scaled. increase. In the context of a dollar asset return of only 0.35% and a negative euro, the renminbi achieved an annual return of 3.2%.
In addition, Germany's "Focus" weekly on January 15th reviewed the development of the euro, saying that member countries increased from the first 11 to 19, the euro zone economy expanded by 72%, but the euro has not challenged the dollar in the past 20 years. "The EU will further strengthen the international role of the euro in the future. At present, the EU, Russia and China are joining forces to make international currencies more diversified."
Just over a month ago, the EU was considered to be on the fast track to challenge the dollar. On December 5, 2018, the European Union announced a draft plan to improve the status of the euro, requiring member states to increase the use of the euro in "strategic industries" such as energy, commodities, aircraft manufacturing, and encourage the development of the EU payment system. On December 10, 2018, the European Union's Senior Minister for Foreign and Security Policy, Federica Mogherin, announced that the European Union would create a new payment channel, the Special Purpose Tools (SPV) mechanism, within a few weeks. Not long ago, Moguerini said on the blog that SPV will continue to advance in 2019.
at the same time,Bank of ChinaWang Youxin, a foreign exchange researcher at the International Finance Institute, told the Chinese media "Securities Daily" that in 2019, the "Belt and Road" construction should be the focus, and the "One Belt, One Road" RMB use and safety network should be formed to promote regional trade and investment and financing facilitation. Based on commodities such as gold, crude oil and iron ore, it will consolidate the pricing power and international status of the renminbi. At the same time, improve the risk prevention mechanism and supporting regulatory measures to strengthen macro-prudential management and counter-cyclical regulation. Enrich the connotation of monetary cooperation, expand the currency swap mechanism and use, and create an upgraded version of currency swaps, making it a necessary complement to international liquidity and reducing dependence on the US dollar. At the same time, strengthen cooperation with the EU, Russia, etc., and promote the establishment of an equal, free and responsible international payment and settlement system.
(Article source: Youcai)
(Original title: People who look at the dollar may be concerned about the global “de-dollarization” process)