Beijing time on Monday (February 11th) at 17:30, the UK announced the fourth quarterGDPData, underperforming expectations, GDP growth in 2018 was the lowest since 2012. As of press time, the pound fell 25 points against the dollar to 1.2893.
The specific data shows that the UK's fourth quarter GDP annual rate recorded an initial value of 1.30%, less than the expected value of 0.1 percentage points, the previous value of 1.50; the UK's fourth quarter GDP quarterly rate recorded an initial value of 0.20%, less than the expected value of 0.4 percentage points, the previous value It is 0.60%. The UK's GDP for the full year of 2018 increased by 1.4%, the smallest increase since 2012.
In the same period, the UK's December GDP monthly rate shrank, recording -0.20%, the largest month-on-month decline since March 2016. The previous and expected values are 0.20% and 0%, respectively. The UK's industrial output accelerated in December, and the trade account deficit expanded further.
The Bank of England predicted last week that the economic growth rate in 2019 will be the slowest in 10 years, affected by the rising uncertainty of Brexit and the global economic slowdown. This is the Bank of England's largest estimate of growth since the economic projections released shortly after the 2016 Brexit referendum.
InternationalMonetary FundA spokesman for the organization (IMF) said last month that the UK has withdrawn from the EU without a framework agreement to maintain partial economic integration, which is the biggest risk facing the UK economy in the near future.
IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice told reporters that all Brexit results will bring costs, because they will set a barrier to the UK's current "no friction" single market with the EU, "the most significant short-term risk facing the UK economy is not Exit the EU with the conclusion of the Brexit Agreement and the future relationship framework with the EU."
A survey by an overseas authority shows that if the UK withdraws from the EU with an agreement, the pound will rise by 2-5%; but if it is out of order, the pound will fall 5-10%.
According to George Brown, strategist at Tianda Asset Management, “The basic reason is that the market will wait until the last minute to exit without a contract. The market will insist on a breakthrough in the last minute waiting. If there is no breakthrough, then Seeing a sharp and sharp devaluation. If an agreement is reached, the sterling gains will be relatively mild, given the time required for implementation and reflected in the relatively slow exchange rate."
Britain, the world's fifth-largest economy, will leave the European Union on March 29, but Prime Minister Teresa May insisted that the EU make more concessions so that the Conservative Party she led will support the Brexit plan. There are serious differences within the Conservative Party regarding the current EU-approved Brexit plan.
British Prime Minister Teresa May plans to pass a Brexit amendment in the British Parliament on Wednesday (February 13). If the vote fails, the parliament will vote on the next Brexit on February 14.
(Article source: Huitong.com)
(Original title: Beware of the prediction of the Bank of England! The UK's GDP in the fourth quarter is not good, and the annual growth rate of 2018 is a six-year low)