Recently, the international economic environment has turned sharply. In order to avoid risks, investors have focused on the yen and pushed the yen to rise. Since April 30, the yen has risen by about 1.7% against the US dollar. On Monday (May 13th), the yen rose as much as 0.9%, and the dollar against the yen fell to 109.02, the yen became the maincurrencyAmong the biggest winners, the Swiss franc followed, and emerging market currencies and commodity currencies were hit hard.
Every time the international economic situation is turbulent and the market is mourning, the yen has always been a traditional safe haven. Mazen Issa, a foreign exchange strategist at TD Securities, said that although the yen is now under the risk of rising, the yen is set to usher in a new round of gains as the stock market continues to fall sharply.
In addition to traditional hedging needs, investors' repayment of yen debt is also a major factor in boosting the yen at risk. The yen has become a major choice for investors' arbitrage trading because of its low interest rate, low inflation and low volatility. Japan has also become the world's largest foreign creditor country. Once the market is in turmoil, a large number of traders will buy yen to repay the yen debt, which will push up the yen exchange rate.
At the same time, Japan’s reserve assets have increased continuously this year. As can be seen from the chart below, the trend of Japanese reserve assets and the Japanese yen exchange rate has been almost the same in the past years. Therefore, in the current environment, the increase in reserve assets may further boost the yen. rise.
In addition, Bank of America Merrill Lynch released a copy on Monday (May 13)research report,FromCash flowThe angle analyzes the possibility that the yen will continue to increase in value. In the report,AnalystThe dollar’s decline against the yen is mainly affected by several major reasons: the correlation between the USD/JPY and the carry trade has risen;MergerReduced activity and bond investment managers cut US dollar exposure, Japanese traders are declining in structural buying for USD/JPY; and Japanese bond investment managers have begun to cut their hedging ratio, while Fed’s dovish shift will also weaken US dollar gains Further support the yen.
Huixin pointed out that the data released by Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Tuesday (May 14th) also showed that more than 1/3fundThe manager has taken hedging measures to prevent the stock market from falling in the next three months, which is the highest percentage ever recorded.
In terms of actual demand, Japanese companies are seeking overseas business in March-April.ReorganizationThe expansion of capital and the large sale of overseas assets have also increased the demand for foreign currency exchange for the yen.
In the past two weeks, the yen has been the currency with the largest purchases among the major currencies. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) currency futures market, as of the 7th, the net sales of speculative funds (non-commercial sector) fell for the first time in 12 weeks.
Huixin quoted strategist Issa as saying that the next major support for the USD/JPY pair is 108.50, but it is also likely to fall to 105 in the flash. Shyam Devani, Citi's global market technology strategist, said that by the end of the year, the yen may rise by more than 5% to about 104 yen to $1. When the algorithmic trading and light trading triggered sharp exchange rate fluctuations in January this year, the USD/JPY collapsed and the yen soared to this level.
(Article source: Golden Ten data)