This week, under the huge uncertainty brought about by international disputes, the global market has poured in a lot of risk aversion.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch targeted 250 in early MayfundThe manager conducted an investigation and the fund managers managed a total of $687 billion. The survey shows that 34% of fund managers have hedged against the risk of a sharp fall in the stock market in the next three months.
However, Michael Hartnett, chief investment officer of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, pointed out that although investors are hedged against risks, they have not fully entered the hedging model.
The bank's strategists believe that the risk of recession is indeed heating up, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the S&P 500 index falling below 2,600 points, etc. are all likely to happen.
In addition, the survey shows that fund managers believe that international disputes are the biggest tail risk at the moment. Compared with the previous survey, the market's concerns about this risk have intensified, but there is still a gap from the top level of last year.
Fund managers also pointed out that the most pegged transactions are: long US technology stocks, short European stocks, and long dollar.
Fund managers believe that if the S&P 500 falls below 2,350, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates.
Among these fund managers, only 4% believe that the US 10-year bond yield will fall below 2% in the next 12 months, 70% think it will be between 2% and 3%, and 21% think it will be higher than 3%. .
Fund managers say inflation expectations will continue to rise.
5% of fund managers expect global economic growth to remain at 5% over the next 12 months.
Hartnett said that overall, due to the impact of international disputes, investors' sentiment is suppressed, and may not enter the market in May, unless the situation changes unexpectedly.
(Article source: Gold headline)