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The European parliamentary elections have come to the fore in a new era! The pound sterling is in the midst of a major retreat

May 15, 2019 17:23
source: Golden ten data

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Summary
[European parliamentary elections debut in Brexit! The pound sterling is undergoing a major retreat. Blue Bay Asset Management (BlueBay) is shorting the pound and British government bonds. UBS Wealth Management is also avoiding British government bonds. Most of the Nomura Securities, which sings many pounds a year, no longer recommend investors to buy. GBP. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), option traders have added short positions in the pound this week, asset managers are still bearish, and leveraged funds have already lowered their net long position to the lowest level since March.


K map gbpusd_0

"Short pounds, don't buy British government bonds, wait for Brexit to move forward and move again!"

  Blue Bay Asset Management (BlueBay) is shorting the pound and British government bonds, UBS Wealth Management is also avoiding British government bonds, and most of the Nomura Securities, which sing many pounds a year, no longer recommend investors to buy pounds. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) show that option traders have added short positions in the pound this week, asset managers are still bearish, leveragedfundThe net sterling has been reduced to the lowest level since March.

The pound was strong at the start of the year and was once the maincurrencyThe best gains have been made, but in the last two months, their exchange rates have fallen again and again. The Brexit negotiations between the British Conservatives and the Labor Party have been in the foreseeable future, making the pound the worst performing currency in the G10 currency last week. British Prime Minister Teresa May is also facing the pressure of her resignation within the party. If she really stepped down, then the UK may hold a new round of elections with a view to breaking the deadlock.

The Wall Street Journal saidThe Conservatives led by Teresa May may have suffered a historic defeat in the European parliamentary election this month. The voters who support the Brexit seem to be interested in punishing May and her party because they failed to get the UK out of the plan on March 29. Europe. This may further weaken her precarious leadership over political parties and the state. Huixin citedMark Dowding, chief investment officer of Blue Bay, said: "I think the negotiations between the Conservative Party and the Labor Party are a dead end. If Teresa May is stepped down, the replacement for her will be a hard-off Bremen, which will increase. The risk of hard Brexit in November."

Doutin reminded that the market is still not sensitive enough to the political situation. The Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, has made a profit in the bipartisan dispute, leading the poll of the European Parliament election next week. This party advocates a quick departure from Europe without a agreement. If the Conservative Party’s bad popularity turns into an election fiasco, then the pressure on Teresa May’s resignation may increase. The Conservative Party will hold an intra-party conference in mid-June to express its opinion on whether to let Mei continue to serve as a leader. Although voting is not binding, it may be lethal.

Daw Ding believes that there is no possibility of leaving the EU and not leaving the EU. In the past two years, Doutin has repeatedly short-selling British pounds and British government bonds, and he believes that both assets are now facing downside risks. Since the beginning of this year, British government bonds have risen in the uncertainty brought about by Brexit, but fund managers said that if there is a soft Brexit and the risk of policy tightening increases, or because of a serious non-agreement, the exchange of credit In the crisis, then the British government bonds are likely to change in the opposite direction.

Credit Union quoted Gary Kirk, co-founder of TwentyFour Asset Management, as saying that if you want to buy safe-haven assets, then US Treasury bonds are worth buying more than British Treasury bonds, although the US currently has the potential to cut interest rates. Maximilian Kunkel, chief investment officer of UBS Wealth Management, said that the Bank of England is now affected by Brexit and the next policy measures are difficult to predict. He said: "We don't think there is any need to trade British government bonds at all. We are very cautious about British assets now, because regardless of the final outcome of the Brexit, the UK economy is very likely to be hit."

(Article source: Golden Ten data)

                (Editor: DF120)

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