Since the British Brexit, the UK’s consumer data has been weak. The newly appointed Jonathan Haskel, member of the Bank of England’s external monetary policy committee, said on Tuesday that Brexit may lead to a temporary stagnation of the British economy. Decision makers should focus on the consumer sector.
Institutions pointed out that British families are increasingly feeling the pressure of slow wage growth and the pressure of accelerated inflation, and British retailers are suffering from Brexit. The largest chain department store in the United Kingdom, John Lewis, and its Waitrose supermarket, said that due to the British Brexit's blow to consumer confidence, coupled with increasingly fierce price competition, the company's first-half profit was close to zero.
However, Greene King, the UK’s largest beer retailer, said that hot weather and the World Cup have attracted more consumers into the bar, and beer sales have increased by 50% to 100% in England’s matchday. According to a recent survey by the Bank of England, UK retailers expect that the World Cup will bring the biggest increase in their sales, especially electronic products and alcoholic beverages.
Many economists expect that the “Three Lions” in England will boost the consumption of shops and bars during the World Cup. The Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane said on Thursday that consumer spending has rebounded recently. This may be due to the fact that England’s achievements in the field of football and cricket boosted consumer confidence and buying desire.
Haldan pointed out that the current economic situation in the UK looks like loose credit conditions and inflation-adjusted wage growth is supporting the slow rise in household spending. Given the continuing tight labor market and increased pay pressure, Haldan’s Bank of England last weekinterest rateThe resolution unexpectedly voted in favor of raising interest rates, hoping to increaseinterest rateTo help restore inflation from the current 2.4% to the 2% target level. He also said:
"If the interest rate rises to 0.75%, higher borrowing costs will put Britain's currency conditions at a level of 'very adaptable'. The interest rate hike is to reduce the risk of gradually tightening policies in the future and avoid making urgent adjustments to the economy. ”
Previously, HSBCbankDaniela Russell, head of the UK interest rate strategy, said that the Bank of England’s economic outlook still has a downside risk, which will limit any tightening.GoldmanThe strategists also insisted that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates until November.
However, according to the latest report, the British first quarterGDPObtaining the above amendment has enhanced the expectation of second quarter GDP performance rebound. Most economists surveyed expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates for the second time since the 2008 financial crisis at its August 2 meeting.