In April 2013, COMEX gold price dipped from $1,560 per ounce to $1,321 per ounce. At this time, the bottom-selling army headed by "China Aunt" swarmed into the market, causing the gold price to rebound to a level of $1,460 per ounce. I did not expect this. The first line has become a high level for more than six years.
The Chinese aunt has been quilted for many years and finally ushered in the dawn of "liberation."
According to the latest data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of December 2018, China's gold reserves were 59.56 million ounces, an increase of 320,000 ounces from the previous month, the first increase since November 2016.
The data shows that the lowest price in December of 2018 in COMEX gold is 1226.6 US dollars / ounce on December 3, which estimates that the minimum cost of 320,000 ounces is 393 million US dollars, which is converted to the central parity of RMB against the US dollar on December 3. It is worth 2.725 billion yuan.
Many central banks in the world have been attracted by this ancient safe-haven asset, and they have joined the tide of buying gold. For example, the Hungarian central bank increased its holdings of gold for the first time in 32 years in 2018, and the Polish central bank increased its gold reserves to the highest level in 35 years. In addition, emerging market countries such as India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have returned to the gold market after years of silence.
According to Bloomberg and Metal Focus data, from the end of 2017 to the second quarter of 2018, the global central bank's net purchases accounted for an average of around 9% of global gold demand. During this period, gold prices generally showed a high decline. In the third quarter of 2018, the global central bank's demand for gold increased significantly to 13%, driving the gold price to bottom out.
The intervention of global central banks has become an important driver of gold price volatility, and the “China factor” has become even more important. Looking back at the relationship between China's gold reserves and the price of gold, it can be confirmed that in the past 40 years, China has increased its holdings of gold 20 times, the most of which was June 2015, reaching 19.43 million ounces. The international gold price also bottomed out in December of that year, rising sharply from a historical low of $1045.4 per ounce to a maximum of $1,377 per ounce. Looking forward to 2019, as the Fed’s interest rate hike ends and the dollar falls, gold is expected to reappear in history and re-explore high.
On the one hand, beautyConsumer confidence indexLower, durable goods orders decline, long-endinterest rateThere are various signs such as the fall and the high US stock market tumbles, indicating that the uncertainty of US economic growth is increasing. And in December 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as scheduled, and for 2019interest rateThe outlook is pessimistic, but the market is worried about the economic recession in 2019 and the yield of government bonds is going down. Therefore, the industry expects that the US interest rate may show a downward trend before the Fed meeting in March 2019, and the dollar will fall at a high level. Will rise.
On the other hand, other major categories of assets are less attractive, thus highlighting the value of gold allocation. At present, there is downward pressure on the domestic and international economy, and the lack of demand has pushed down the dominoes that have fallen in commodity prices. The US stocks have entered the bear market technically, and the A-share market has been consolidating at a low level.real estateThe short-term attractiveness is not strong, and the bitcoin bubble is de-converted... From the perspective of capital allocation, it has a positive strengthening effect on the allocation of gold.
(Article source: FXStreet)