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Part of the private equity jiacang another way: avoiding hot stocks

November 08, 2018 03:53
Author: Lin Ronghua
source: China Securities Journal
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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[Some private equity vests have another way: avoiding hot stocks and buying stocks.] As the market picks up, some private equity firms have recently taken a small margin to participate in the rebound. In the specific layout, private placements have evaded the hot stocks in the early stage, and they have valued the high-quality targets that have been insufficiently pessimistic and have not paid enough attention to the market. Affected by the slump in the performance of some stocks, private equity has placed more emphasis on the industry sentiment and performance growth of stocks. (China Securities Journal)

As the market picks up, some private placements have recently taken a small increase in positions to participate in the rebound. In the specific layout, private placements have evaded the hot stocks in the early stage, and they have valued the high-quality targets that have been insufficiently pessimistic and have not paid enough attention to the market. Affected by the slump in the performance of some stocks, private equity has placed more emphasis on the industry sentiment and performance growth of stocks.

  Slightly involved in the rebound

After the Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM's monthly line were seven consecutive yin, the market has recovered since November due to multiple positive incentives. As of the close of this Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index have risen by 1.48% and 3.60% respectively this month.GEMIt rose by 5.50%. Near the end of the year, many private placements said that they have slightly increased their positions in the near future and participated in the market rebound.

“In the recent past, nearly 10% of the positions have been added, and the current position is around 50%.” A medium-sized private equity source said, “The market has not rebounded significantly since this year. Recently, many negative factors are gradually weakening, and the market sentiment has also been repaired. On the other hand, many of the outstanding stocks that were undervalued in the previous period have been confirmed by the third quarterly report. With the recent increase in risk appetite, the stock price has been repaired very quickly. From this perspective, it is not excluded that the remaining two months will usher in the best of the year. Quotes."

"There are not a lot of recent operations, a small participation in the market band, maintaining a neutral position, currently around 60%." A Beijing-based tens of billions of private equity sources said, "The market trend is affected by the policy in the short term, but the medium-term trend is still to look at the economy. From the relevant economic data from September to October, there is still some downward pressure. Although the strength of infrastructure construction has been great, but from the published data, the effect is not particularly obvious, so the economy is expected to be difficult. Reverse."

However, there are also private placements that have expressed pressure to control the net withdrawal, and there is no obvious increase in positions. A private equity firm in Shenzhen said, “The recent market rebound is caused by favorable policies. It is necessary for the market to repeatedly confirm whether the bottom zone is relatively stable. In addition, in the case of large economic downward pressure, the growth rate of many industries is also affected. It is more difficult to determine the certainty of the growth of individual stocks. After the market trend is further stabilized, the positions will be appropriately increased."

  Avoiding pre-popular stocks

It is worth noting that recentlySSE 50The index did not perform well. As of Wednesday, it has only risen 1.27% since this month, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. In addition, many white-chip stocks in heavy positions have also made up for losses. Heju Investment believes that the overall profit growth rate of listed companies in the third quarter has declined, and the relatively strong sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances and pharmaceuticals have seen a sharp drop. During the period, Shenwan's first-level industry trends showed significant differentiation. In the early stage, the large financial and large-cycle sectors were fully adjusted. The P/B ratio valuation is close to the historical bottom area near 1 and has a high margin of safety. In the overall market retreat, the performance is relatively strong, and even many varieties have certain absolute returns.

Under the trend of large-cap blue-chips to make up for the consolidation, the recent private placements of jiacang also evaded the hot stocks in the previous period. "The recent small-band operation is not a blue-chip market for garners." The aforementioned Beijing-billion-dollar private equity source said that "the investment style is still biased towards the selection of stocks, and it will be cautious for stocks that are popular, have been fully or even over-expected by the market. In the early stage, the stocks that have been overly pessimistic and expected to fall, and the market concerns are not so full, will pay more attention. At present, there are not many blue chips in the market."

"There are not many white horses in the current position, and the stocks of household appliances and liquor are sold when the economic data has been weakened and the relevant industry data has declined." The aforementioned medium-sized private equity said. Li Ming (a pseudonym), a private equity researcher in Beijing, also believes that stocks that are overly concentrated in institutional positions have been evaded because these stocks may fluctuate due to non-fundamental factors, such as institutional adjustments.

However, Yuan Guangping, the investment manager of Xingshi Investment Portfolio, is still optimistic about the long-term investment value of the consumer white horse sector. He said: "The collective slump in the consumption of the White Horse sector is mainly due to two points: First, the blue-chip white horse market since 2016-2017 is mainly driven by valuation, but the valuation of such stocks has basically been repaired in place; Some benchmark companies' results in the third quarter were less than expected, which triggered market pessimism and loosened the funds of the previous group. Although affected by the weak macro economy, the short-term performance of the consumer sector is unlikely to exceed expectations. However, the economic restructuring and upgrading In the process, the consumer sector will be an important path to expand domestic demand, so there will still be room for growth in the future."

  Excavation boom leader

The upswing of the hot stocks in the early stage also made the private equity more value-oriented industry sentiment and performance growth certainty in stock selection. Li Ming said: "Although the market has rebounded, the performance of individual stocks is very serious. Some of the downward trends of the valuations are high and the fundamentals lack support. The stock selection should focus on the industry's prosperity, the margin of safety of individual stocks, and performance. The ability to cash, and whether there is policy-driven."

"The current A-share market has a low probability of a systematic downturn. The focus is on the core varieties in which the industry's prosperity is high and the performance is resilient. For example, the leading companies in the chemical industry segmentation." Layout core varieties, taking into account structural band opportunities. The high probability of short-term fluctuations in the future market depends on policy-driven, and the way of market deduction is probabilistic in a structured form. For example, excessive pessimism towards private enterprises is converted to emotional repair, and operational needs to take into account structural band opportunities. The mid- to long-term trend market still needs performance support and remains to be seen.

“Although there are still no significant trend investment opportunities in the market, the quality leaders in the segmentation field have gradually shown value. We will actively seize this window period to fully exploit the quality growth stocks that are in line with the economic development direction and profitable valuation. Yuan Guangping said that the current policy has been relatively clear, and the market sentiment has also been repaired. However, given the weak domestic economic data and the lack of substantial relaxation of funds, the probability of a large-scale rebound in the short-term market is small, short-term. Still facing certain uncertainties.

Yuan Guangping further stated that due to the weakening of the US stock market's emotional impact on the A-share market, the expected decline in the third-quarter report has also landed. The negative factors have been fully reflected in the valuation, and the substantial positive factors are still accumulating: First, The market valuation is already at a low level. Nearly 60% of the stocks have fallen by more than 30% this year. Second, the relevant departments have recently introduced measures to resolve the issue of equity pledge, and introduced relevant solutions to the problem of financing difficulties for private enterprises. Third, tax cuts Measures to reduce fees and stimulate economic vitality are also on the way to land, and there will be more effective tax reduction measures in the future. Therefore, the most influential factors in suppressing market sentiment in the near future are gradually alleviating.

(Article source: China Securities Journal)

                                (Editor: DF407)


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