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Funds sell off "downhill" What are the stock market investment opportunities during the year?

January 11, 2019 08:29
source: International financial newspaper
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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[The fund sells off the market] What are the investment opportunities in the stock market during the year? 】 This year, the market continues to fluctuate last year. The data shows that as of January 9, the Shenwan primary industry index, which is close to the bottom of the year, is pharmaceutical bio, food and beverage, and banking. For individual stocks, especially blue-chip white horse stocks such as banks and liquors have recently made up for the decline, becoming the main force of the market. The blue-chip white horse has always been the preference of many fund heavy positions. How to seize the opportunity for a stable layout and explore the investment opportunities of these leading companies? (International Finance News)

Since the beginning of this year, the market has continued to fluctuate last year. The data shows that as of January 9, the Shenwan-level industry index, which is close to the bottom of the year, is a medical biotechnology.food and drink,bankWait. For individual stocks, especially blue-chip white horse stocks such as banks and liquors have recently made up for their losses.Main force.

The blue chip white horse has always been numerousfundThe preference of heavy positions, how to seize the opportunity for a stable layout, and explore the investment opportunities of these leading companies?

  Blue chip white horse stocks sold off

At present, A-shares have entered the bottom of the range, and many institutions have been optimistic about the blue-chip white horse stocks. Affected by this, equity fundsPerformanceThe collective fell. Some insiders believe that the fall of blue-chip white horse stocks means that the A-share market will arrive. However, some institutions believe that the replenishment of strong stocks means that the current position is already close to the bottom area, and the short-term trend will remain.

At present, the fund's 2018 four season report has not been disclosed. However, from the performance of the 25 most heavily stocked stocks that were most welcomed by the fund in the third quarter of last year, most of the stock prices have experienced different degrees of decline.

As of the close of January 9, since the fourth quarter of last year, 25 fund Awkwardness stocks have fallen by an average of 12.81%, onlyVanke A,Bank of CommunicationsTwo stocks maintained positive growth. among them,Ping An,Guizhou Maotai,China Merchants BankFor the three major stocks of public funds, the declines in this period were 16.86%, 15.6%, and 16.26%.

Data Display,Ping AnIt was held 975 million by 975 funds, with a total market capitalization of 54.076 billion yuan; Guizhou Maotai was held by 801 funds holding 51.76 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 37.792 billion yuan;China Merchants BankIt was held by 630 funds with 823 million shares, and its total market capitalization was as high as 25.264 billion yuan.

Some insiders believe that the reason why the above-mentioned fund Awkwardness stocks fell sharply in the near future may be the continuous lightening of the organization in the fourth quarter.

Yingmi FundAnalystChen Sixian said in an interview with the "International Finance News" reporter that most of the time last year, institutions still chose to hold blue-chip stocks, which is super-matching for blue-chip stocks themselves. Recently, the market unanimously believes that in the next one or two quarters, enterprises will usher in a profit downturn. A large reason for the over-allocation of blue-chip stocks in the early stage of the organization is that its profitability is certain, and the break of this expectation will weaken the logic of continuing to over-match blue-chips, and then reduce the blue-chip stocks. In addition, the inter-annual liquidity tension has also contributed to the sell-off of blue-chip stocks, and some funds have passively reduced their positions due to large redemptions.

  How to balance valuation and fundamentals

At present, further downswing in the financial and consumer industries has continued to fluctuate. The pharmaceutical bio, food and beverage sectors are among the top losers, and market sentiment is still relatively cautious. At the same time, most leading companies in the market are undervalued.

Some institutional sources told the International Finance News that the bottom of the market itself is highly volatile, although some large-cap blue chipsStock baseThis is not good, but because of its current low valuation, it still has the value of holding.

Then, besides the low valuation of blue chip stocks, is the fundamental factor still the key?

Chen Sixian believes that the performance of fundamentals and valuations should be complementary, and fundamental changes will be reflected in the valuation. If the fundamentals are not good, even if the valuation is low, the revision of the valuation will be suppressed. At present, the market expects that the turning point of economic fundamentals will take at least one or two quarters. In the process of corporate earnings downside, the valuation of blue-chip stocks will further sink and there will be opportunities for jiacang.

Securities market professional Wang Binwei believes that whether it is Baima blue chip or other stocks, although its value is good, but if there is no funds to promote, the stock price is difficult to keep rising. Generally speaking, it is difficult for retail investors to understand the basic information of a certain company's fundamentals. It is better to follow the trend of funds, but also to pay attention to aspects such as emotional, policy, fundamental and technical aspects.

What is the chance of a rise?

After experiencing a sharp shock in the market last year and the overall performance of equity funds was bleak, this year's stock market investment opportunities gradually surfaced. How to pursue stable returns under controllable risks has also become the focus of the industry.

  Southern fundDeputy General Manager and Chief Investment Officer (Equity) Shibo believes that the biggest experience of last year is that even the best blue chips and leading stocks should have reasonable valuations, and the safety margin should not be forgotten at any moment. The lesson is that while conducting in-depth research on industries and companies, it is not enough to pay attention to macro-level changes.

After the market lowered its expectations sharply, Shibo said that the investment was even better. He believes that this year's investment environment is not as bad as it was at the beginning of 2018, when good company valuations were at historically high levels. just now,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300The index P/E ratio is only about 10 times, and the lowest P/E ratio in 2008 at the time of the international financial crisis was only 12 times. Therefore, investment opportunities this year may be more than in 2018.

  Industrial Global FundManager Wang Pin believes that from the experience of the industry, the role of stock positions on portfolio income may not be so large, but the importance of industry allocation and stock selection exceeds the contribution of timing. There is no way to accurately predict the future market. Instead of predicting the short-term trend, it is better to pay attention to the current value of the company and whether it will decline in the future. The market is ultimately the return of the mean, and value determines everything. “Based on corporate value, I believe that the excess returns of small and medium-sized growth stocks may exceed the cyclical sector.”

Chen Sixian said that at present, the main negative factors in the stock market are the downward trend of the economy, the increase in external market volatility, and the future rise of the stock market, which requires at least one or more of the expected changes in factors. Reference institutional investors account for relatively high US stocks. Institutional investors invest more in the stock market from a long-term allocation perspective, reducing market volatility, allowing corporate value to be more fully reflected in stock prices, and making market behavior more rational, resulting in The long cows of the past ten years.

(Article source: International Finance News)

                                (Editor: DF384)


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