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Cai Zhiwei, Manager of Rongtong GEM Index Fund: GEM is still attractive

March 14, 2019 02:48
Author: Zhang Huan Yun
source: China Securities Journal
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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For the recent market trend, RongtongGEMnumberfundManager Cai Zhiwei said: "Overall, although the GEM refers to a large increase in recent times, it is still relatively low. The full clearing of the bubble and the arrival of the profit turning point make the GEM index still highly attractive."

Cai Zhiwei said: "We proposed in October last year that the policy of the GEM is now available, and the bottom of the market is not far away. The bottom of the profit may appear in the 2018 annual report release period with the clearing of goodwill impairment. With the latest announcement of 2018 yearPerformanceAccording to the forecast, the growth rate of earnings of the GEM in 2018 has fallen sharply. The annual profit is expected to be -17%, and the profit growth rate has dropped to the bottom of history. The GEM may have reached a historic bottom, and it is expected that earnings will improve quarter by quarter from the second quarter of this year. ”

Cai Zhiwei said that analyzing the losses of the GEM stocks found that the impairment of goodwill is the main cause, while operating losses and large-scaleLong-term equityFactors such as investment impairment have contributed to a sharp decline in performance in 2018. Although the impairment of goodwill and operating losses are bad in themselves, from the perspective of investment, the market has fully anticipated the issue of goodwill on the GEM, and concerns about the impairment of goodwill have also been in the process of continued decline in stock prices in 2018. It is fully reflected that the profitability of the ChiNext may have already appeared.

From the perspective of incremental funds, Cai Zhiwei analyzed that on March 1st, MSCI announced that it will include 27 stocks on the GEM for the first time. The relevant stocks are all constituents of the GEM, and overseas funds will accelerate the allocation of GEM leading enterprises. At the same time with the amount of JanuaryCreditRelease, widecurrencyThe conversion to wide credit is being made, and the market liquidity turning point has already appeared, and the growth stocks will benefit significantly.

Judging from the heavyweights on the GEM, Cai Zhiwei believes that the proportion of farm stocks is relatively high, the beneficiary pig cycle is reversed, and the continuous fermentation of African swine fever, the current round of pig prices may exceed expectations, and leading aquaculture companies may benefit.

From the perspective of the market, Cai Zhiwei pointed out that the current round of the market has reached the annual line, the transaction volume reached one trillion yuan, and the market sentiment has been effectively activated. If the investor judges that the follow-up is a bull market, the GEM with high Beta attribute has a higher configuration value.

(Article source: China Securities Journal)

                                (Editor: DF407)


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